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SUMMARY
Warsaw home prices are still going up on a year-over-year basis, but the next phase looks much flatter: modest growth or stagnation is more likely than either a sharp correction or another broad boom.
The easiest mistake right now is to confuse a falling developer average with falling homes everywhere. Recent new-build declines have been driven heavily by cheaper projects entering the market, not by broad markdowns across existing stock.
That composition effect is big enough to change the headline. New popular-segment apartments have been launching around PLN 16,400–16,500 per m² while Warsaw’s overall developer average is still close to PLN 19,600 per m².
Completed transactions are not confirming a broad decline. AMRON recorded a small fall in Q1 followed by an almost 4% quarterly rebound in Q2, leaving transaction prices nearly 6.5% above the previous year.
The resale market is softer than the transaction rebound suggests. SonarHome’s Warsaw estimate rose through the first half of the year and then stalled, which looks more like a plateau than a correction.
Buyers have more negotiating room than the headline asking prices imply. The gap between advertised developer prices and completed sale prices has been large enough to matter materially on an ordinary 50 m² apartment.
Credit is still supporting the market, but the pace is cooling. Mortgage issuance remains much stronger than a year ago, while the latest application data show less month-to-month acceleration than earlier in 2026.
Supply is enough to restrain pricing without looking distressed. Warsaw’s developer inventory has been selling through relatively quickly, and recent completions and housing starts do not point to a flood of unsold homes.
The practical change for buyers is not that Warsaw suddenly became cheap. It is that cheaper new options are appearing, especially outside the premium end, and sellers can no longer count on automatic monthly price gains.
A genuine citywide fall would need more than two soft months in developer averages. We would want to see weaker mortgage demand, rising resale inventory, slower developer sell-through and falling transaction prices persisting at the same time.
The more likely path from here is a choppy, flatter market with modest nominal growth, occasional small monthly declines and much wider differences between districts, projects and apartment types than the citywide average suggests.
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Are Warsaw home prices actually falling now?
Warsaw home prices are still higher overall, but the market has clearly cooled and some new-build measures are now moving down month to month.
The latest datasets are pulling in different directions. RynekPierwotny.pl currently puts the average asking price of a new Warsaw apartment at PLN 19,568 per m², around 10% above a year ago, even after a second consecutive monthly decline. The median is PLN 17,400 per m² and has risen by a much smaller 5% over the year.
The resale market looks calmer. SonarHome currently estimates Warsaw at PLN 15,750 per m², unchanged for two months but still clearly above the start of the year. Actual transaction data from AMRON moved more sharply: after falling 0.9% in the first quarter, average Warsaw transaction prices rebounded by almost 4% in the second quarter and were nearly 6.5% above the previous year.
Put together, Warsaw has moved from rapid price growth into a much flatter market. Some advertised prices are slipping, resale prices have stalled lately, yet buyers are still completing transactions at higher prices than they were a year ago.
| Warsaw price measure | Latest level | Recent movement | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| New-build average asking price | PLN 19,568/m² | -1% m/m, about +10% y/y | Current developer inventory |
| New-build median asking price | PLN 17,400/m² | About +5% y/y | A better view of the typical new apartment |
| Resale market estimate | PLN 15,750/m² | Flat lately, higher since year-start | Secondary-market direction |
| AMRON transaction prices | Around PLN 15.7k/m² in Q2 | Almost +4% q/q, nearly +6.5% y/y | What buyers actually paid |
Why have Warsaw new-build prices fallen for two months?
Warsaw's recent new-build price drop comes mainly from cheaper apartments entering the market rather than a wave of developers cutting existing prices.
Otodom recorded a 1.5% monthly decline in Warsaw's average developer price in June. RynekPierwotny.pl then found another decline in July and a further 1% fall in August.
The explanation is unusually clear. More than 2,000 apartments entered the Warsaw market across 43 projects in June at an average of roughly PLN 16,500 per m², according to Otodom. More recently, RynekPierwotny.pl found that new apartments from the popular segment were entering at around PLN 16,400 per m².
Those prices sit roughly PLN 3,000 below Warsaw's citywide new-build average. Put enough PLN 16,000–17,000 apartments into a market averaging around PLN 20,000 and the average falls even if developers barely touch prices in older projects.
So the monthly decline is real, but it tells us more about what developers are launching these days than about widespread discounting.
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The glass towers going up around the centre sell a view at a price the rent has not followed, with a service charge on top. Where asking prices sit furthest from what flats earn and resell for.
Are Warsaw developers finally cutting apartment prices?
Warsaw developers are becoming more price-conscious, although widespread headline price cuts still look rare.
The gap between Warsaw's average and median new-build prices makes this easier to see. RynekPierwotny.pl currently reports an average of PLN 19,568 per m² against a median of PLN 17,400. The average is roughly 12.5% above the median, showing how strongly expensive projects pull up the headline figure.
Recent competition has taken a subtler form. Developers are adding cheaper projects, adjusting the mix of units they launch and using selective incentives rather than repricing entire developments.
Buyers can still feel the market softening even when the official average stays high. An apartment launched at PLN 16,400 per m² competes directly with stock priced above PLN 19,000. For a 50 m² home, that PLN 3,000-per-m² gap is worth roughly PLN 150,000.
Price pressure is becoming more visible. A broad developer markdown still has not arrived.
Are actual Warsaw sale prices going up or down?
Actual Warsaw apartment sale prices are currently going up again after a brief dip earlier in the year.
AMRON's bank-based transaction database put Warsaw at PLN 15,104 per m² in the first quarter, down 0.9% from the previous quarter. That was a real decline, but a small one.
The next quarter changed the picture quickly. Warsaw transaction prices rose by almost 4% quarter on quarter and nearly 6.5% year on year. That implies an average close to PLN 15,700 per m².
The sequence is more useful than either quarter on its own: Warsaw lost less than 1%, then gained almost 4%. A sustained correction should start showing up in completed transactions too. So far, it has not.
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Is the Warsaw resale market getting cheaper?
Warsaw resale apartments have stopped getting more expensive lately, but secondary-market prices remain clearly above where they started the year.
SonarHome's current citywide estimate is PLN 15,750 per m². It was also PLN 15,750 in July, compared with PLN 15,718 in June and PLN 15,187 in January.
That gives us a useful shape: prices climbed fairly steadily during the first half of the year and then flattened. Using those monthly figures, January to August works out to about +3.7%, while SonarHome's broader year-to-date indicator puts the increase a little above 5%.
The plateau deserves more attention than another annual-growth headline. Buyers are no longer chasing a resale market that rises every month. Sellers, meanwhile, have kept most of the gains built earlier in the year.
| Period | Warsaw resale estimate | Change vs January |
|---|---|---|
| January | PLN 15,187/m² | — |
| March | PLN 15,260/m² | +0.5% |
| April | PLN 15,317/m² | +0.9% |
| June | PLN 15,718/m² | +3.5% |
| July | PLN 15,750/m² | +3.7% |
| August | PLN 15,750/m² | +3.7% |
Why are Warsaw asking prices so much higher than sale prices?
Warsaw asking prices can sit thousands of złoty per square metre above completed sale prices, so advertised averages currently make the market look more expensive than many buyers actually experience.
Earlier this summer, Otodom estimated a gap of close to PLN 1,900 per m² between Warsaw developer asking prices and transaction prices, the largest difference among the major markets it compared. Across 50 m², PLN 1,900 per m² adds up to PLN 95,000.
Negotiation explains part of the difference. Timing also plays a role because today's completed transaction can come from a reservation made weeks or months earlier. The composition of advertised stock adds another distortion: expensive apartments can sit online longer while well-priced homes disappear after selling.
A Warsaw new-build average close to PLN 20,000 per m² should never be read as the price every buyer is currently paying.
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How much more expensive are Warsaw homes than a year ago?
Warsaw apartments are still more expensive than a year ago across every broad measure we checked, although the increase ranges from roughly 5% to 10% depending on the market and methodology.
New-build asking prices show the largest increase. RynekPierwotny.pl currently has the average about 10% above last year, while the median is up around 5%. The gap between those two numbers shows how much expensive projects can pull the citywide average upward.
AMRON's completed transactions rose by nearly 6.5% year on year in the latest quarter. Resale estimates have grown more slowly, around the mid-single digits.
The recent monthly weakness has barely reversed the earlier increase. Anyone who postponed a purchase for a year waiting for a broad drop would generally still face a higher price today.
| Market measure | Approximate annual change | Current reading |
|---|---|---|
| New-build average asking price | +10% | Still the fastest-growing measure |
| New-build median | +5% | Much closer to typical buyer experience |
| Resale prices | Around +5% | Growth has flattened lately |
| AMRON transaction prices | Nearly +6.5% | Rebounded strongly in Q2 |
Is Warsaw housing demand still strong right now?
Warsaw housing demand is healthy enough to keep prices supported, but the newest mortgage figures show that the recovery has started to lose some speed.
Poland-wide mortgage lending accelerated dramatically earlier in the year. AMRON recorded 83,600 new housing loans worth PLN 39.7 billion in the second quarter, the highest quarterly number of loans since 2007 and a record by total value.
BIK's July figures were also strong: banks issued 33.1% more housing loans than a year earlier, while their value jumped 45.3%.
The very latest application data are softer. BIK found mortgage-application value running 9.3% above a year earlier, while the number of applicants was 7% higher year on year but 14.4% lower than in July. The average requested mortgage also slipped 2.4% month to month to PLN 525,700.
There is still plenty of financing demand, just without the same acceleration seen earlier. That fits Warsaw's current market better: enough buyers to keep prices supported, but not much evidence of another immediate buying frenzy.
| Mortgage measure | Latest change |
|---|---|
| Mortgage application value | +9.3% y/y |
| Number of applicants | +7.0% y/y |
| Applicants vs previous month | -14.4% |
| Average requested mortgage | PLN 525,700 |
| New housing loans in Q2 | 83,600 |
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Are lower interest rates still helping Warsaw home prices?
Lower Polish interest rates are still helping Warsaw buyers, and that extra borrowing power has become one of the main supports under home prices.
The National Bank of Poland lowered its reference rate to 3.75% earlier this year after a much larger easing cycle had already taken place. Mortgage rates do not move one-for-one with the policy rate, but cheaper money improves how much many households can borrow and reduces monthly repayments on newly priced loans.
The lending data show how much financing conditions have changed. In the second quarter, banks issued PLN 39.7 billion of new housing loans, up 18.9% from the previous quarter. The average new mortgage exceeded PLN 475,000 and was 7.3% larger than a year earlier.
Warsaw's high prices absorb much of that benefit. When apartments cost PLN 800,000, PLN 900,000 or more than PLN 1 million, lower rates can make the purchase possible without making it feel cheap.
For now, easier credit looks strong enough to support prices. It does not yet look strong enough to restart the kind of rapid repricing Warsaw went through before.
Does Warsaw have enough apartments for prices to fall?
Warsaw currently has enough developer supply to slow price growth, but the available stock is moving too quickly to look like a serious oversupply problem.
Otodom calculated a 3.7-quarter sell-through period for Warsaw's developer inventory in June. In plain English, if developers stopped launching new projects and sales continued at the same pace, the available stock would take a little under a year to sell.
That was the shortest sell-through period among Poland's seven largest residential markets. Katowice, at the other extreme, was close to ten quarters.
Warsaw's supply also keeps changing fast. More than 2,000 new apartments entered the market in June alone, and that influx was large enough to pull down the city's average asking price.
The construction pipeline deserves watching, but recent Warsaw completion data hardly suggest apartments are flooding the city. The Warsaw Statistical Office recorded 3,795 completed homes in the first four months of the year, 28.5% fewer than during the same period a year earlier. Housing starts were also down 28.8%, while permits were almost unchanged.
Across Poland, permits have risen more strongly than completions, which points to more potential supply later. For Warsaw buyers, that should help keep developers competitive. It still falls well short of the kind of excess stock that normally produces forced price cuts.
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Why haven't expensive Warsaw apartments caused a bigger correction?
Warsaw apartments remain expensive because buyers' finances have improved faster than sellers have been forced to lower their expectations.
Credit has become easier to obtain, mortgage lending has recovered and Warsaw continues to benefit from a large, relatively affluent employment base. Meanwhile, the market has avoided the ingredients that usually turn stretched affordability into a sharp price correction: rising unemployment, distressed owners, collapsing mortgage demand and years of unsold stock.
The behavior of sellers tells us a lot. SonarHome currently estimates that resale listings stay active for around 96 days. That is hardly a frantic market, but it also gives owners time to wait for a buyer rather than immediately slash the price.
Developers have reacted in a similar way. They are launching more affordable stock and competing on individual units while largely protecting headline prices in existing projects.
High prices can keep Warsaw flat for quite a while. A major correction usually needs something that forces sellers to act, and that pressure is not widespread today.
Are cheaper Warsaw apartments finally showing up?
Cheaper Warsaw apartments are becoming easier to find in new developments, especially outside the expensive end of the market, even while the citywide average remains close to PLN 20,000 per m².
The clearest example came when more than 2,000 new homes entered at around PLN 16,500 per m². The latest RynekPierwotny.pl data then put newly added popular-segment stock around PLN 16,400.
At today's citywide average of PLN 19,568, that creates a gap of more than PLN 3,000 per m². For a 50 m² home, we are talking about roughly PLN 150,000.
Apartment size also makes a big difference. Studios currently average roughly PLN 24,032 per m², compared with PLN 19,101 for two-room apartments and PLN 18,123 for three-room homes. Buyers trying to minimize their total purchase price by choosing a studio pay a hefty premium for every square metre.
So yes, more affordable options are showing up. They usually come with a compromise on location, project or apartment type rather than from every property in the city getting cheaper at once.
| New-build segment | Current average | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| Studios | PLN 24,032/m² | +10% |
| 2 rooms | PLN 19,101/m² | +8% |
| 3 rooms | PLN 18,123/m² | +9% |
| 4+ rooms | PLN 20,100/m² | +14% |
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Could Warsaw home prices genuinely start falling?
Warsaw home prices could fall from here, but today's evidence points more toward stagnation and occasional small corrections than a sustained citywide decline.
A deeper fall would become much more believable if several things changed together. Mortgage applications would need to weaken beyond normal monthly volatility, resale inventory would need to build, developers would need to struggle with unsold projects, and completed transaction prices would have to start falling for more than a quarter.
Right now, one of the most important measures is moving the other way: AMRON's latest transaction prices rebounded almost 4% in a single quarter.
There are still reasons to be cautious. Warsaw affordability is stretched, new supply could increase later as today's permits become completed apartments, and the latest BIK data show mortgage demand cooling from July. Those developments can keep prices down.
We would become much more bearish if that cooling turned into a repeated pattern while available inventory kept rising. The evidence has not reached that point yet.
What could make Warsaw home prices start rising quickly again?
Warsaw home prices could speed up again if cheaper borrowing brings more buyers into a market where well-priced apartments remain relatively scarce.
Mortgage demand is the first thing we would watch. The latest BIK reading has cooled, so another surge would be meaningful rather than simply more of the same.
The second is how quickly developers replace what they sell. Otodom found earlier this year that sales across Poland's seven largest developer markets had moved ahead of new supply over the first seven months, reversing the much looser balance seen a year earlier. Warsaw's own inventory was also selling faster than in the other major markets when measured by quarters of supply.
Resale availability matters too. If owners continue holding properties while cheaper credit brings more buyers back, competition can return surprisingly quickly in the most popular districts.
A new Warsaw price boom would need another demand push. The current market has enough supply and enough price resistance to keep growth much slower for now.
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So are Warsaw home prices going up or down?
Warsaw home prices are still going up overall, but right now they are much closer to flat than the double-digit new-build headline suggests.
The clearest way to reconcile the data is by looking at the time horizon. Over the past year, every major Warsaw measure we reviewed is higher: roughly 10% for average new-build asking prices, around 5% for the new-build median and resale market, and nearly 6.5% for AMRON's latest transaction prices.
Over the past few months, the picture has changed. Developer averages have fallen twice in a row, largely because cheaper projects entered the market. Resale prices have barely moved lately. Mortgage applications remain above last year's level but have cooled from the previous month.
Actual transaction prices have recently rebounded rather than followed advertised new-build prices downward.
Our answer is pretty clear: Warsaw is no longer in a broad housing boom, yet it has not entered a broad price decline either. Annual prices are still rising while the current market is settling into something much flatter. Buyers have more negotiating room and more lower-priced new options than before. Sellers, meanwhile, can no longer assume that simply waiting a few months will deliver another large increase.
For now, Warsaw home prices are edging higher over the longer view and mostly stalling in the short term.
OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Warsaw home prices are genuinely falling or simply moving through a much flatter phase after several years of strong growth. We separate the market into new-build asking prices, resale pricing, completed transactions, mortgage demand, financing conditions and housing supply rather than treating one index as the whole market.
For each part of the question, we use the measure that is most useful for that job. Averages are compared with medians when expensive projects can distort the headline; completed transactions are used to check whether advertised price moves are reaching real sale prices; and developer inventory is assessed relative to the pace of sales rather than as a raw stock count.
We also distinguish short-term direction from year-over-year change. Two months of lower developer averages can be meaningful without proving a citywide correction, especially when cheaper new projects are changing the mix of what is for sale. A broader downturn would need to persist across transactions, resale pricing, demand and supply at the same time.
National mortgage data are used as a financing-demand indicator, not as a Warsaw price index. In the same way, Poland-wide construction data are used mainly to understand the direction of future supply, while Warsaw-specific completions, starts and permits carry more weight for the local market.
Key sources include RynekPierwotny.pl for Warsaw new-build prices, medians and apartment-size data, BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl for the latest monthly developer-price moves and new popular-segment launches, Otodom for new supply, launch pricing and Warsaw sell-through, and SonarHome for the resale-market estimate and listing-duration context.
For completed sales and financing, we rely on AMRON-SARFiN for Q2 2026 transaction prices, the Polish Bank Association for mortgage issuance and average loan size, and BIK for the latest mortgage-demand index and applicant data.
For the interest-rate and supply backdrop, we use the National Bank of Poland for the current 3.75% reference rate, the Statistical Office in Warsaw for local residential-construction monitoring, and Statistics Poland for the wider national construction pipeline.
The conclusion is based on convergence across these sources rather than any single monthly print. In practical terms, we treat Warsaw as a falling market only when price weakness becomes persistent across independent measures and is supported by softer demand or rising excess supply, not simply because one advertised average moves down for a month or two.
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