Is right now a good time to buy a property in Warsaw? (2026)

Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Poland Property Pack

Yes, the analysis of Warsaw's property market is included in our pack

Is it smart to buy now in Warsaw, or should I wait as of 2026?

Do real estate prices look too high in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, Warsaw property prices look expensive but not wildly overvalued, with new-build apartments averaging around 17,300 PLN per square meter and the market showing signs of stabilization rather than continued runaway growth.

One clear signal that prices are stretched is that year-over-year asking price growth for new Warsaw apartments turned slightly negative (around minus 1%) in 2025, suggesting sellers are no longer able to push prices higher without resistance.

Another sign is that the price-to-income ratio in Warsaw now sits at roughly 7 times annual gross income for a typical 50 square meter flat, which is high by historical standards and means many local buyers feel the squeeze.

You can also read our latest update regarding the housing prices in Warsaw.

Does a property price drop look likely in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the likelihood of a meaningful property price drop in Warsaw over the next 12 months appears low, because the market is supported by strong employment, active mortgage demand, and no signs of distressed selling.

A plausible price change range for Warsaw in 2026 would be somewhere between minus 5% on the downside and plus 8% on the upside, meaning the market could drift slightly either way but a crash looks unlikely.

The single most important factor that could trigger a price drop in Warsaw would be a sharp tightening of credit conditions, whether through higher interest rates or stricter lending rules from regulators.

However, this scenario seems unlikely in the near term, as the European Commission forecasts solid economic growth for Poland in 2026 and mortgage inquiries remained strong through late 2025.

Finally, please note that we cover the price trends for next year in our pack about the property market in Warsaw.

Could property prices jump again in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the likelihood of a renewed price surge in Warsaw over the next 12 months is medium, because the ingredients for a jump exist but would require a specific trigger to activate.

If prices do jump, a plausible upside range for Warsaw would be around 5% to 12%, driven by pent-up demand meeting constrained supply in the most desirable neighborhoods.

The single biggest demand-side trigger that could push Warsaw prices higher would be a new government housing subsidy program or a meaningful drop in mortgage rates, which would bring sidelined buyers back into the market quickly.

Please also note that we regularly publish and update real estate price forecasts for Warsaw here.

Are we in a buyer or a seller market in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, Warsaw's property market looks roughly balanced, leaning slightly toward buyers in average locations while sellers still hold leverage in prime, well-connected neighborhoods.

The supply-demand balance in Warsaw shows around 62,000 new-build listings across major Polish cities with about 29,000 sales in the first nine months of 2025, which translates to roughly 5 to 6 months of inventory and suggests neither side has overwhelming power.

The fact that Warsaw asking prices went slightly negative year-over-year in 2025 indicates that more sellers are willing to negotiate, giving buyers more room to push back on overpriced listings.

Are homes overpriced, or fairly priced in Warsaw as of 2026?

Are homes overpriced versus rents or versus incomes in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, Warsaw homes look moderately overpriced when measured against local incomes, though high rents provide some support for current price levels.

The price-to-rent ratio in Warsaw suggests that buying is expensive relative to renting, with typical studio rents around 2,800 PLN per month versus purchase prices that would require decades to recoup through rent savings alone.

The price-to-income multiple in Warsaw sits around 7 times annual gross income for a 50 square meter flat, which is stretched compared to the 4 to 5 times ratio often considered affordable in European capitals.

Finally please note that you will have all the indicators you need in our property pack covering the real estate market in Warsaw.

Are home prices above the long-term average in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, Warsaw home prices are clearly above the long-term average, with new-build asking prices up roughly 69% over the past five years according to market data.

The recent 12-month price change in Warsaw has been nearly flat or slightly negative, which is a sharp slowdown compared to the double-digit annual gains seen in the years before and during the pandemic boom.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, Warsaw real prices remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, though the gap has narrowed as high inflation eroded some of the nominal gains.

What local changes could move prices in Warsaw as of 2026?

Are big infrastructure projects coming to Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the biggest infrastructure project likely to impact Warsaw property prices is the M2 metro line western extension to Bemowo, which could boost values in nearby neighborhoods by improving commute times significantly.

The City of Warsaw states that construction of the new Bemowo metro stations is expected to finish toward the end of 2026, meaning buyers who purchase now in areas like Chrzanów or Karolin could benefit as the line opens.

For the latest updates on the local projects, you can read our property market analysis about Warsaw here.

Are zoning or building rules changing in Warsaw as of 2026?

The most important zoning change being discussed in Warsaw relates to Poland's broader planning reform, which could make some plots effectively unbuildable without fast-tracked permits starting around mid-2026.

As of early 2026, the net effect of these planning rule changes on Warsaw prices is uncertain, but the reform could tighten supply in central districts where land is already scarce, potentially pushing prices higher in those areas.

The areas most affected by these rule changes in Warsaw would likely be outer districts like parts of Białołęka or Ursus, where developers rely on plots that may face new permitting hurdles.

Are foreign-buyer or mortgage rules changing in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, there are no major foreign-buyer restrictions being introduced in Warsaw, but mortgage rule changes around reference rates and potential new housing subsidy programs could meaningfully affect buyer demand and prices.

The most likely mortgage-related change is an evolution in reference rate mechanics, as KNF has been working on benchmark reforms that could affect how mortgage rates are calculated and disclosed.

Any revival or expansion of government housing support programs like "Pierwsze Mieszkanie" could quickly boost demand in Warsaw, especially among first-time buyers, and push prices higher in the most popular segments.

You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Poland.

Will it be easy to find tenants in Warsaw as of 2026?

Is the renter pool growing faster than new supply in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, renter demand in Warsaw remains strong due to the city's job concentration and internal migration, though new completions are also rising, creating a roughly balanced rental market.

Warsaw continues to attract workers in finance, tech, and the public sector, plus students from across Poland, which keeps the renter pool growing steadily year after year.

On the supply side, Poland saw over 90,000 housing completions in the first three quarters of 2025, with 2026 and 2027 expected to bring even more units to market from earlier construction starts.

Are days-on-market for rentals falling in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, days-on-market for Warsaw rentals appears stable rather than falling sharply, with well-priced units in good locations leasing quickly while overpriced listings sit longer.

The gap in leasing speed is noticeable: apartments near metro stations in Mokotów or Wola often find tenants within days, while units in bus-dependent outer areas can take several weeks.

One reason leasing times stay short in prime Warsaw areas is simply undersupply of quality stock near transit, combined with steady tenant turnover driven by job relocations and student cycles.

Are vacancies dropping in the best areas of Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, vacancies in Warsaw's best rental areas like Śródmieście, Mokotów, Wola, and Żoliborz remain tight, with landlords reporting steady tenant interest and minimal downtime between leases.

These prime neighborhoods typically show vacancy rates well below the citywide average, because renters prioritize fast commutes and walkable amenities over lower rents in distant areas.

One practical sign that prime Warsaw areas are tightening is that landlords are increasingly receiving multiple inquiries within the first weekend of listing, allowing them to be selective about tenants.

By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current rent levels in Warsaw.

Am I buying into a tightening market in Warsaw as of 2026?

Is for-sale inventory shrinking in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, for-sale inventory in Warsaw appears roughly stable compared to last year, with around 62,000 new-build listings across major Polish cities and absorption rates suggesting neither a glut nor a shortage.

This translates to roughly 5 to 6 months of supply in Warsaw, which is typically considered balanced, meaning buyers have options but aren't overwhelmed with choice either.

Are homes selling faster in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, homes in Warsaw are selling at a steady pace rather than dramatically faster, with quality units in good locations moving quickly while average properties take normal market time.

Year-over-year, selling speed appears similar to 2025, reflecting a market where mortgage demand is strong (up 42% in inquiries) but prices are no longer accelerating, so buyers are active but deliberate.

Are new listings slowing down in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, new listing activity in Warsaw reflects a slowdown in developer starts, with the first three quarters of 2025 showing about 14% fewer new construction starts than the same period in 2024.

Seasonally, Warsaw sees more listings in spring and early autumn, and the current level is not unusually low but suggests the pipeline may tighten in late 2026 or 2027 as fewer projects reach completion.

The most plausible reason for slower starts is developer caution around Poland's planning reform, combined with higher construction costs and uncertainty about future subsidy programs.

Is new construction failing to keep up in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, new construction in Warsaw is keeping pace with demand in aggregate, but the supply is often not where buyers most want it, with central districts constrained by land scarcity and permitting challenges.

Recent trends show strong completions nationally (over 90,000 units in the first three quarters of 2025), though starts have slowed, which could create tighter conditions later.

The biggest bottleneck limiting new construction in Warsaw's most desirable areas is the combination of scarce buildable land and the upcoming planning reform, which adds uncertainty for developers trying to bring projects to market.

Will it be easy to sell later in Warsaw as of 2026?

Is resale liquidity strong enough in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, resale liquidity in Warsaw is generally strong, especially for apartments in well-connected districts, thanks to a deep buyer base and higher-than-average mortgage penetration in the metro area.

Warsaw's mortgage penetration stands at roughly 18% compared to about 12% nationally, which means more potential buyers have access to financing and can transact when the right property appears.

The property characteristic that most improves resale liquidity in Warsaw is proximity to metro or rail stations, as commute time is a top priority for both owner-occupiers and investors seeking rental tenants.

Is selling time getting longer in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, selling time in Warsaw appears slightly longer than during the peak frenzy years but remains reasonable for properly priced properties, reflecting a market that has normalized rather than seized up.

The realistic range for days-on-market in Warsaw runs from under two weeks for prime, well-priced units to several months for overpriced or poorly located properties.

One clear reason selling time can lengthen in Warsaw is affordability pressure, as buyers at stretched price-to-income ratios become more selective and take longer to commit, especially on units that don't offer standout value.

Is it realistic to exit with profit in Warsaw as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the likelihood of selling with a profit in Warsaw is medium to high over a typical 5 to 7 year holding period, assuming you buy at fair value and the macro environment remains stable.

A minimum holding period of at least 4 to 5 years is generally needed in Warsaw to overcome transaction costs and benefit from price appreciation, with shorter holds being riskier.

Total round-trip costs in Warsaw, including notary fees, taxes, and agent commissions, typically run around 8% to 12% of the property value (roughly 70,000 to 100,000 PLN on a typical flat, or about 16,000 to 24,000 EUR / 17,000 to 26,000 USD).

The clearest factor that increases profit odds in Warsaw is buying in neighborhoods with upcoming metro access, like the Bemowo extension areas, where connectivity improvements can drive above-market appreciation.

What sources have we used to write this blog article?

Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Warsaw, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.

We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.