Does buying property in Warsaw make sense now?

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Are Warsaw apartment prices still going up?

Warsaw apartment prices are still edging higher today, but the boom has clearly cooled.

The difference from 2023–2024 is huge. Data drawn from Warsaw’s property-price register put the median transaction price at PLN 11,572 per m² in 2022, PLN 12,859 in 2023 and PLN 15,281 in 2024. That last jump was almost 19% in one year.

Since then, prices have moved much more slowly. Recent transaction data put Warsaw around PLN 16,000–17,000 per m² depending on the market and dataset, with annual increases far below the pace buyers saw during the previous surge.

The primary market is also showing more restraint. In a late-August 2026 update, CBRE reported that apartments newly launched during the second quarter entered the market at an average PLN 18,593 per m², 8.6% cheaper than the new supply introduced one quarter earlier. The average asking price of the entire developer inventory was still higher, at PLN 19,405 per m², partly because cheaper units tend to sell first.

Warsaw prices are therefore rising from an already expensive base rather than racing upward. Buying today with the expectation of another easy 15% annual gain would be a very aggressive assumption.

Are Warsaw asking prices making apartments look more expensive than they really are?

Yes. Warsaw asking prices currently give buyers a noticeably more expensive picture than completed transactions do.

This gap was already visible in National Bank of Poland data. On the secondary market, advertised Warsaw apartments were averaging well above the prices eventually recorded in transactions. The difference has often been around 10% and has occasionally been larger.

The developer market shows the same problem in another form. CBRE's latest Warsaw update put the average asking price of available new apartments at PLN 19,405 per m², while units actually sold had an average asking price of PLN 18,585 per m². Developers are selling the cheaper stock first, discounting selected apartments and using incentives without necessarily cutting the official headline price of an entire project.

This also makes the usual “new versus old” comparison less straightforward. Older Warsaw apartments can look expensive on property portals, but an actual negotiated resale can end up close to the effective cost of a developer apartment. At the same time, a new apartment may still need a kitchen, flooring, bathroom work, lighting and furniture before anyone can live in it or rent it.

We would therefore compare the final all-in cost of two real apartments rather than comparing two portal averages. In Warsaw today, the advertised PLN/m² is often the least interesting number in the deal.

Has Warsaw property become too expensive for local buyers?

Warsaw property is expensive for local households today, although income growth has finally started closing part of the gap.

The city's Statistical Office reported an average enterprise-sector gross salary above PLN 11,000 per month in 2026. A fairly ordinary 50 m² apartment bought around PLN 16,500 per m² therefore costs roughly PLN 825,000.

That purchase price equals more than six years of the average gross Warsaw salary before the buyer pays for food, tax, transport or anything else. Buy the same 50 m² at roughly PLN 19,400 per m² on the developer market and the cost approaches PLN 970,000.

Otodom looked at affordability from another angle in July 2026 and calculated that a Warsaw buyer trying to save a typical down payment alone would need the equivalent of almost 16 average gross monthly salaries. That is a fairly clear sign that entry costs remain heavy even in Poland's highest-paying major city.

The direction has improved, though. Warsaw wages have recently been growing faster than transaction prices. That slowly restores affordability without requiring apartment prices to fall.

We would describe Warsaw as stretched rather than detached from local incomes. It is uncomfortable for first-time buyers, but very different from a market where prices are still rising much faster than salaries every year.

Is there still enough demand to support Warsaw property prices?

Yes. Warsaw still has enough buyers to support the market, even though people have become much more selective about what they buy.

BuiltMind counted 4,005 primary-market sales in the first quarter of 2026 and 3,899 in the second. The 2.6% quarterly decline is small, particularly because reservations actually increased from 3,115 to 3,863.

CBRE uses a slightly different dataset but reaches a similar conclusion: Warsaw apartment sales remain active while buyers now have far more choice. Falling sales caused by a shortage of attractive units would mean something very different from falling sales caused by people abandoning the market altogether. Warsaw currently looks much closer to the first situation.

Housing demand also benefits from a very deep employment base. Warsaw has roughly 1.9 million official residents, more than one million enterprise-sector jobs and one of the lowest unemployment rates among major European capitals.

There is little evidence today that Warsaw buyers have disappeared. They are simply less willing to chase every apartment at whatever price the seller asks.

Does Warsaw have too many new apartments for sale now?

Warsaw currently has more developer inventory than it needs for a balanced market, which gives buyers unusually good negotiating power.

BuiltMind counted 14,525 apartments available around mid-July 2026. At the recent sales pace, that represented about 11 months of supply, rising above 12 months once reserved apartments were included. BuiltMind considers roughly six to seven months closer to a balanced market.

The latest CBRE data make the change even clearer. Developers increased new launches by 66.8% quarter on quarter during Q2, pushing total available inventory 7.1% higher. More than one in five apartments currently offered by developers is already completed, a record share in CBRE's Warsaw series.

Finished apartments are particularly interesting because they cost developers money while sitting unsold. That creates much more room for negotiation than an apartment scheduled for delivery two years from now.

Developers have responded with direct discounts, free finishing, storage units, parking incentives and other promotions. Buyers should add all of those benefits together rather than focusing only on whether the official PLN/m² figure moved.

The market is still selling thousands of apartments every quarter, so the current inventory does not look disastrous. It does, however, give buyers leverage they did not have during the frenzy.

Can Warsaw rents still justify today's apartment prices?

Warsaw rents can still justify a sensibly priced apartment, but rental growth is currently too weak to rescue an expensive purchase.

Otodom's June 2026 data put the average Warsaw asking rent at PLN 4,890 per month, the highest among Poland's major cities. Yet the more revealing trend is that rents have stopped running away from tenants.

Earlier in 2026, Otodom described Warsaw's rental market as clearly stabilising. Rental listings had climbed to almost 6,700 in February and average rents were slipping slightly. By the summer, asking rents remained high, but annual growth was modest compared with the huge increase in apartment values seen over the previous few years.

An apartment bought for PLN 800,000 and rented for PLN 4,000 a month produces PLN 48,000 in annual rent, or a 6% gross yield. At PLN 1 million, the exact same rent produces 4.8%.

After rental tax, vacancy, repairs, furnishing and building-related costs, both figures fall further.

The purchase price is critical. A Warsaw landlord who negotiates well can still get a respectable mid-single-digit gross yield. Paying a premium price for an ordinary rental unit leaves very little room for mistakes.

Can a mortgage-financed Warsaw rental make money today?

A heavily mortgaged Warsaw rental is still difficult to make cash-flow positive today.

Mortgage pricing has improved considerably as Polish interest rates have fallen, but competitive fixed-rate housing loans are still commonly around the high-5% to roughly 6% range. That remains awkward when many Warsaw apartments produce only around 5%–6% before expenses.

Take a 50 m² apartment costing PLN 825,000 and generating PLN 3,900 in monthly rent. With a 20% down payment, the investor borrows PLN 660,000. At roughly 6% over 25 years, the monthly mortgage payment comes out around PLN 4,250.

The rent is already below the mortgage payment.

Private residential rental income is generally taxed at 8.5% of revenue up to PLN 100,000 a year. Applying that rate to PLN 3,900 leaves roughly PLN 3,570 before maintenance, vacancy, repairs or insurance.

At 30% down, the numbers get close to breakeven before those extra costs. Around 40% down, positive monthly cash flow becomes much more realistic.

The result is fairly stark: Warsaw still works better today for buyers bringing substantial equity than for investors trying to maximize leverage.

Which Warsaw districts make the numbers work best?

Cheaper Warsaw districts usually give investors a much easier starting point because rents do not fall nearly as quickly as purchase prices do.

Recent developer asking prices have shown enormous differences across the city. Białołęka has been around PLN 14,000 per m², with Ursus and Targówek around PLN 15,000–15,500. Mokotów has been above PLN 20,000, Wola around the high-20,000s and Śródmieście above PLN 30,000 per m².

For a 50 m² apartment, that can mean roughly PLN 700,000 in Białołęka against well above PLN 1.3 million in Wola and around PLN 1.7 million or more in Śródmieście.

A central Warsaw apartment obviously rents for more. The problem is that the rent rarely increases in the same proportion as the purchase price.

That is why investors should pay close attention to Ursus, Targówek, parts of Praga, Białołęka and other lower-priced locations with good rail, tram or metro connections. The cheapest apartment in the city is not automatically a bargain, particularly if tenants face a painful commute. But paying an extra PLN 500,000 simply for a fashionable postcode can destroy the yield.

For a long-term owner-occupier, lifestyle may justify that premium. For a rental investor, the numbers need to justify it.

Should you wait for Polish mortgage rates to fall before buying in Warsaw?

Waiting only for cheaper mortgages is risky because lower rates can quickly bring more Warsaw buyers back into the market.

Poland has already moved through a significant easing cycle. Mortgage offers have come down with policy rates, improving what households can borrow for the same monthly payment.

Another one-percentage-point fall in mortgage rates would make a meaningful difference. On a PLN 600,000 loan over 25 years, moving from around 6% to around 5% cuts the monthly payment by roughly PLN 350.

The catch is that easier financing does not help one buyer in isolation. Thousands of households suddenly qualify for larger mortgages at the same time.

Poland has seen this effect before. When financing becomes easier or government support improves purchasing power, housing demand can respond very quickly, particularly in Warsaw.

There is also an advantage today that may disappear before mortgage rates become much cheaper: buyers have lots of developer inventory to choose from. Someone who finds a good apartment at a genuine discount today can refinance or benefit from lower rates later. Someone waiting indefinitely for the perfect rate has no guarantee that the same apartment will still be priced the same way.

Is Warsaw's economy strong enough to keep supporting property prices?

Yes. Warsaw's economy remains one of the strongest reasons to own residential property in the city.

Official statistics put Warsaw's population at roughly 1.87 million at the end of 2025. The enterprise sector alone employs more than 1.1 million people, while the city's registered unemployment rate has recently been around 1.6%.

Salaries are high by Polish standards too. Official Warsaw data showed average enterprise-sector monthly pay above PLN 11,000 in 2026, with wages still rising year on year.

The office market gives us another useful check on corporate demand. CBRE measured almost 6.24 million m² of modern Warsaw office space at the end of the first half of 2026. Vacancy fell to 8.5% overall and only 4.8% in central locations. Q2 office demand reached roughly 280,000 m², one of the strongest second-quarter results recorded.

Those numbers do not mean apartment prices must rise every year. They do tell us that Warsaw continues to concentrate well-paid jobs and large employers, which supports both rental demand and the pool of households able to buy.

When we look for a reason Warsaw housing should remain relatively resilient, the labour market is much more convincing than any short-term property-market narrative.

Will Poland's population decline eventually hurt Warsaw property?

Poland's demographic decline is a real long-term risk, but Warsaw is currently much better protected from it than most of the country.

Warsaw continues to attract workers, students, international residents and people moving from smaller Polish cities. The official city population was still around 1.87 million at the end of 2025 and had increased rather than fallen.

Official population counts also miss some temporary and foreign residents, so the number of people actually using Warsaw's housing stock is larger than the registered figure alone suggests.

Over 20 or 30 years, Poland's ageing population could reduce household formation nationally. That risk deserves to be taken seriously when buying property for several decades.

But demographic pressure will not hit every Polish housing market equally. Smaller cities losing young adults are much more exposed than Warsaw, which continues to pull employment and population toward itself.

For a buyer today, this strengthens the case for apartments near metro lines, major rail links, universities and employment centres. A well-connected Warsaw apartment has a much better demographic defence than a peripheral project that depends on the city expanding endlessly outward.

What taxes and rules should foreign buyers know before buying in Warsaw?

Buying a standard Warsaw apartment is relatively straightforward for many foreigners, but taxes and legal structure can still change the return enough to matter.

On the secondary market, buyers normally face a 2% PCC transaction tax. Qualifying buyers purchasing their first home can be exempt. New apartments bought directly from developers are generally handled under VAT rules instead, so the ordinary 2% PCC does not apply in the same way.

Rental taxation is also simple but quite unforgiving for leveraged investors. Private rental income is generally taxed at 8.5% of gross revenue up to PLN 100,000 per year and 12.5% above that threshold. Because the tax is charged on revenue, mortgage interest and renovation costs do not simply disappear from the taxable amount.

Foreign ownership rules depend on nationality and the asset. EEA and Swiss citizens generally do not need a special permit. Buyers from elsewhere can also normally acquire an independent residential apartment under the statutory exemption, although land, houses and some properties carrying additional land rights can require a different legal analysis.

Then there is currency. A buyer measuring wealth in euros, dollars or pounds is also taking exposure to the Polish złoty. A Warsaw apartment can appreciate in PLN while producing a weaker return in the buyer's home currency, or the exchange rate can work in the opposite direction.

None of these costs makes Warsaw unusually difficult for foreign investors. They simply need to be included before calling a 5%–6% headline yield a 5%–6% return.

Can Warsaw property prices keep rising over the next ten years?

Warsaw property still has a credible long-term appreciation case, but another decade of effortless explosive gains would be a poor base assumption.

The city has several durable advantages. Wages continue to rise, unemployment is extremely low, Warsaw keeps attracting people and jobs, and desirable central land is obviously finite. Construction costs also make it difficult for developers to keep producing genuinely cheap housing in good locations.

At the same time, buyers today are starting from a much higher price level than buyers ten years ago. Secondary-market apartments have more than doubled in value over roughly a decade in many datasets, with the 2022–2024 period doing a particularly large part of the work.

Future returns therefore need a different engine. Higher salaries can gradually support higher rents and higher purchase prices. Better transport can reprice specific districts. Scarcity can protect the most desirable locations.

We would underwrite a Warsaw purchase assuming modest long-term appreciation rather than counting on another immediate boom. If the deal only works after assuming 8% or 10% annual price growth, the purchase price is probably too high.

What could actually make Warsaw property prices fall?

Warsaw property prices could fall meaningfully if today's high supply is joined by weaker employment or another affordability shock.

Supply is currently the most visible pressure point. As seen above, developers have roughly 11–12 months of inventory at the recent sales pace, launches accelerated sharply during Q2 and more than one-fifth of current developer stock is already finished.

That alone does not force prices down because buyers are still active. It does, however, make large price increases much harder when competing projects are fighting for the same customer.

Affordability is the second vulnerability. A standard 50 m² apartment can already cost six or seven years of an average Warsaw gross salary, and a heavily financed rental struggles to produce positive monthly cash flow.

A serious labour-market downturn would be much more damaging. Warsaw currently enjoys unemployment around 1.6%, so there is plenty of room for conditions to worsen before the employment market looks weak. A recession that hit technology, finance, business services and other high-paying sectors simultaneously would pressure both rents and purchase demand.

We could easily see individual overpriced developments or apartments correct by 5%–10%, especially where developers need to clear completed units. A much deeper city-wide fall would probably require the strong Warsaw labour market to crack as well.

Who should actually buy property in Warsaw now?

Warsaw property makes the most sense today for long-term buyers with plenty of equity and enough patience to walk away from mediocre deals.

An owner-occupier expecting to stay for many years has a strong case. Warsaw's employment base is solid, financing conditions have improved and a long holding period spreads the transaction costs over many years.

A cash buyer or low-leverage landlord can also find workable investments. An apartment bought near PLN 15,000–17,000 per m² with a genuine mid-single-digit gross yield looks much more attractive than a prestige unit bought above PLN 20,000 per m² with almost the same rent.

The hardest case to defend is the investor borrowing 80% of the purchase price, paying the full advertised price and hoping appreciation will cover negative cash flow. Current mortgage and rental numbers leave too little room for that strategy.

Deal selection has become much more important than simply deciding that Warsaw is a good city.

Does buying property in Warsaw make sense now?

Yes, buying property in Warsaw still makes sense now, but today's market rewards disciplined buyers far more than passive ones.

Warsaw's underlying case remains strong. The city has extremely low unemployment, rising salaries, active apartment sales, deep rental demand and a corporate economy that continues to attract people. We do not see enough evidence for a broad Warsaw property crash to be the most likely outcome.

At the same time, buyers currently have an unusually useful window to negotiate. Developer launches jumped sharply in Q2, available inventory sits well above balanced levels and a record share of developer stock is already completed. The latest CBRE figures even show new launches coming onto the market at lower average prices than one quarter earlier.

Rental economics impose the main limit. Warsaw rents are high in absolute terms, but they have recently been much flatter than purchase prices. With mortgage rates still around 6%, a heavily leveraged ordinary rental can remain cash-flow negative. Buyers bringing 40% equity, paying cash or finding a genuine discount have a much easier equation.

For us, the best Warsaw purchases today are liquid one- and two-bedroom apartments, close to reliable public transport and employment areas, bought at a price that works without heroic assumptions about future appreciation. Cheaper well-connected districts can offer better value than automatically choosing Wola, Mokotów or Śródmieście.

We would buy Warsaw selectively today. We would also negotiate harder than a few years ago, calculate returns from the final transaction price rather than the listing price, and reject any investment that depends on another property boom to make the numbers work.

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INVESTROPA

A team specialized in real estate investing in European countries

We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Warsaw. If you’d like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.