Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Poland Property Pack
Everything you need to know before buying real estate is included in our Poland Property Pack
Poland's property market in 2026 is in a unique position: prices remain elevated after years of strong growth, but the pace has slowed and conditions vary widely by city and neighborhood.
In this article, we break down the current housing prices in Poland, explore the short and long-term forecasts, and identify which areas and property types offer the best opportunities.
We constantly update this blog post with fresh data to keep you informed as the market evolves.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Poland.
Insights
- Polish property prices grew around 4% to 8% in nominal terms over the past year, but when you factor in inflation, real gains are closer to 0% to 3% in many cities.
- Warsaw apartments now average around 14,750 PLN per square meter, which means a typical 50 square meter flat in the capital costs roughly 740,000 PLN (about 170,000 EUR).
- Mortgage rates in Poland dropped from peaks above 7% to around 5.25% by late 2025, and analysts expect another 100 basis points cut by the end of 2026, which should boost buyer demand.
- The housing deficit in Poland remains structural: developers cannot build fast enough in the cities where people want to live, keeping a floor under prices even when demand cools.
- Districts like Wola and Praga in Warsaw, or Podgórze in Kraków, are seeing faster price appreciation than established prime areas because they still offer relative value near transport links.
- Energy-efficient apartments now command a measurable premium in Poland, as buyers increasingly factor monthly utility costs into their purchasing decisions.
- Poland's unemployment rate sits at just 3.2%, one of the lowest in Europe, supporting household incomes and property demand across major urban centers.
- The completion of Warsaw's M2 metro extension to Karolin in 2026 is expected to lift property values in previously underserved western districts like Bemowo and Ursus.
What are the current property price trends in Poland as of 2026?
What is the average house price in Poland as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the average property price in Poland's major urban markets typically falls between 10,500 and 13,500 PLN per square meter, which translates to roughly 2,400 to 3,100 EUR or 2,600 to 3,400 USD per square meter depending on the city and neighborhood.
When you look at price per square meter across Poland's six largest cities, the range spans from about 8,000 PLN in Łódź to nearly 15,000 PLN in central Warsaw, so the cost of a typical apartment can vary dramatically based on location alone.
For practical context, roughly 80% of residential purchases in Poland fall somewhere between 400,000 PLN (about 92,000 EUR) for a modest apartment in a secondary city and 1,200,000 PLN (around 275,000 EUR) for a family-sized unit in Warsaw or Kraków, with most transactions clustering in the 550,000 to 900,000 PLN range.
How much have property prices increased in Poland over the past 12 months?
Over the past 12 months in Poland, property prices have increased by approximately 4% to 8% in nominal terms, with the strongest gains concentrated in supply-constrained cities like Wrocław and the Tricity region (Gdańsk, Gdynia, Sopot).
The range of price growth varies significantly by property type and location, from near-flat performance in some oversupplied suburban segments to double-digit gains in well-connected urban neighborhoods where demand outstrips new construction.
The single most significant factor behind this price movement in Poland has been the improvement in financing conditions, as mortgage rates dropped from their 2023 peaks and made monthly payments more manageable for buyers who had been waiting on the sidelines.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Poland as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices in Poland include Wola and Praga-Północ in Warsaw, Podgórze in Kraków, and Wrzeszcz in Gdańsk, all of which benefit from urban regeneration and improved transport connections.
Annual price growth in these top-performing neighborhoods has ranged from roughly 8% to 12% over the past year, outpacing the national urban average by a significant margin due to concentrated buyer demand and limited available stock.
The main demand driver in these neighborhoods is their combination of relative affordability compared to established prime areas, ongoing infrastructure improvements like metro extensions and tram lines, and the influx of young professionals seeking well-connected locations without paying peak prices.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Poland.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Poland. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Which property types are increasing faster in value in Poland as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the ranking of property types by value appreciation in Poland places well-located two to three bedroom apartments at the top, followed by terraced and semi-detached houses in commuter belts, then detached houses in suburban areas, with small studios in oversupplied locations appreciating the slowest.
The top-performing property type in Poland, modern apartments with two to three rooms in major cities, has appreciated by approximately 6% to 10% over the past year, driven by their strong liquidity and broad appeal to both owner-occupiers and investors.
The main reason these apartments are outperforming other property types in Poland is the combination of deep buyer demand, limited new construction in central locations, and rising preferences for energy-efficient units that keep monthly costs manageable.
Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
What is driving property prices up or down in Poland as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the top three factors driving property prices in Poland are improving mortgage affordability as interest rates decline, a persistent structural housing shortage in major cities, and steady income growth supported by low unemployment and solid GDP expansion.
The single factor with the strongest upward pressure on property prices in Poland right now is the supply constraint in desirable urban locations, where developers simply cannot deliver new units fast enough to meet demand from buyers who have been waiting for better financing conditions.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Poland here.
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What is the property price forecast for Poland in 2026?
How much are property prices expected to increase in Poland in 2026?
As of early 2026, property prices in Poland are expected to increase by approximately 3% to 7% over the course of the year, with a central case around 5% in nominal terms.
Forecasts from different analysts and institutions range from conservative estimates of 3% annual growth to more optimistic projections of up to 10% in supply-constrained cities like Wrocław and the Tricity, reflecting varying assumptions about interest rate cuts and buyer demand recovery.
The main assumption underlying most price increase forecasts for Poland is that the National Bank of Poland will continue to reduce interest rates through 2026, improving mortgage affordability and bringing more buyers back into the market.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Poland.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Poland in 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth in Poland include Wola, Praga-Północ, Bemowo and Ursus in Warsaw, Podgórze and Czyżyny in Kraków, Nadodrze and select parts of Fabryczna in Wrocław, and Wrzeszcz and Letnica in Gdańsk.
Projected price growth for these top neighborhoods in Poland ranges from 7% to 12% for the year, significantly above the national urban average, assuming interest rates continue their downward path and no major economic shocks occur.
The primary catalyst driving expected growth in these Polish neighborhoods is the combination of ongoing infrastructure investment, particularly metro and tram extensions, with their still-accessible price points compared to saturated prime districts.
One emerging neighborhood in Poland that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth is Ursus in Warsaw, which stands to benefit substantially from the completion of the M2 metro line extension to Karolin in 2026 and new residential developments targeting young families.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Poland.
What property types will appreciate the most in Poland in 2026?
As of early 2026, the property type expected to appreciate the most in Poland is well-located, energy-efficient two to three bedroom apartments in major cities, particularly those near metro stations, universities, or business districts.
Projected appreciation for this top-performing property type in Poland is approximately 6% to 10% for the year, reflecting strong demand from both owner-occupiers seeking livable spaces and investors looking for reliable rental income.
The main demand trend driving appreciation for apartments in Poland is the growing preference among buyers for properties that minimize both purchase price per square meter and ongoing energy costs, which new-build units with modern insulation and heating systems deliver best.
The property type expected to underperform in Poland during 2026 is small studio apartments in areas with heavy new supply, where developers have built many similar units and competition among sellers tends to cap price growth.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Poland versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How will interest rates affect property prices in Poland in 2026?
As of early 2026, the impact of current interest rate trends on property prices in Poland is broadly supportive, as declining mortgage rates are improving affordability and gradually bringing buyers who had been waiting back into the market.
The current benchmark interest rate from the National Bank of Poland sits around 5.25% for mortgages, and most analysts expect further cuts totaling 50 to 100 basis points through 2026, though rates are unlikely to fall below 4% in the near term.
In Poland, a 1% change in mortgage interest rates typically affects buyer purchasing power by roughly 8% to 10%, meaning a rate cut can significantly expand the pool of qualified buyers and put upward pressure on prices, while a rate increase does the opposite.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Poland.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Poland in 2026?
As of early 2026, the three biggest risks for property prices in Poland are interest rates staying higher for longer than expected, an external economic shock from a broader European slowdown or geopolitical developments, and unexpected policy changes affecting housing programs or property taxation.
The single risk with the highest probability of materializing in Poland is a slower-than-expected pace of interest rate cuts, which would keep affordability constrained and delay the demand recovery that most bullish forecasts depend upon.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Poland.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Poland in 2026?
As of early 2026, buying a rental property in Poland can be a sound investment if you focus on cashflow durability rather than quick appreciation, targeting well-located apartments near transport hubs, universities, or business centers where tenant demand remains stable.
The strongest argument in favor of buying a rental property now in Poland is that rental demand remains robust in major cities, supported by low unemployment, continued internal migration to urban job centers, and a structural housing shortage that keeps vacancy rates low.
The strongest argument for waiting before buying a rental property in Poland is that if interest rates fall further as expected, both mortgage costs and potentially purchase prices could become more favorable in the second half of 2026.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Poland.
You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Poland.
Buying real estate in Poland can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Where will property prices be in 5 years in Poland?
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Poland as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Poland over the next five years is expected to range from 25% to 40% in nominal terms, assuming continued economic stability and gradual improvement in financing conditions.
The range of 5-year forecasts for Poland spans from a conservative scenario of around 20% total growth (if affordability remains stretched and economic headwinds emerge) to an optimistic scenario of up to 50% (if rate cuts accelerate and demand surges).
The projected average annual appreciation rate for Polish property over the next five years is approximately 4% to 7% per year, which would represent solid real gains above inflation but not the exceptional surge seen during the post-pandemic boom.
The key assumption most forecasters rely on for their 5-year property price predictions in Poland is that the country's GDP will continue growing at 2.5% to 3.5% annually, supporting household income growth and housing demand without triggering overheating.
Which areas in Poland will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The top three areas in Poland expected to have the best price growth over the next five years are the Warsaw metropolitan area (especially transforming districts and commuter rail towns), Kraków, and the Tricity region (Gdańsk, Gdynia, Sopot), all benefiting from strong job markets and infrastructure investment.
Projected 5-year cumulative price growth for these top-performing areas in Poland ranges from 35% to 50%, driven by their combination of economic dynamism, supply constraints, and ongoing public investment in transport and urban renewal.
This outlook is broadly consistent with our shorter-term forecast, though the 5-year view gives more weight to infrastructure completion (like Warsaw's M2 and future M3 metro lines) and demographic shifts that take time to fully affect prices.
The currently undervalued area in Poland with the best potential for outperformance over five years is Łódź, which offers the lowest prices among major Polish cities, is seeing significant EU-funded regeneration, and sits at a natural transport crossroads between Warsaw and western Poland.
What property type will give the best return in Poland over 5 years as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the property type expected to give the best total return over five years in Poland is the well-located two to three bedroom apartment in major cities, combining reliable rental income with solid appreciation potential.
Projected 5-year total return (appreciation plus rental income) for this top-performing property type in Poland is approximately 45% to 65%, assuming 5% to 7% annual price growth plus gross rental yields of 4% to 5% reinvested or compounded.
The main structural trend favoring this property type over the next five years in Poland is the continued growth of single-person and small-household formation, combined with internal migration to job-rich cities where apartment living remains the dominant choice.
For investors seeking the best balance of return and lower risk over five years in Poland, terraced and semi-detached houses in well-connected commuter belts offer stable family tenant demand, lower competition from new supply, and fewer surprises on renovation costs compared to older apartment blocks.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Poland over 5 years?
The top three major infrastructure projects expected to impact property prices in Poland over the next five years are the completion of Warsaw's M2 metro extension to Karolin and the start of the M3 line, continued urban tram and rail upgrades in Kraków and Wrocław, and the ongoing expansion of express roads connecting commuter towns to major employment centers.
In Poland, properties near completed metro or major rail stations typically command a price premium of 10% to 20% compared to similar units further from transport, with the premium developing gradually as projects near completion and rider patterns stabilize.
The specific neighborhoods that will benefit most from infrastructure developments in Poland include Bemowo, Ursus, and Karolin in Warsaw (M2 metro), Gocław (future M3), Podgórze in Kraków (tram improvements), and Nadodrze in Wrocław (urban regeneration and transport links).
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Poland in 5 years?
Poland's population is expected to remain broadly stable around 38 million over the next five years, but the more important driver for property values is internal migration toward major cities and the continued growth of smaller households, which increases demand for housing units even without overall population growth.
The demographic shift that will have the strongest influence on property demand in Poland is the rise of single-person and two-person households, driven by urbanization, delayed family formation, and an aging population, all of which increase the total number of homes needed.
Migration patterns are expected to support property values in Poland's major cities over the next five years, as domestic workers continue moving from smaller towns to Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, and the Tricity for employment, while some international migration from Ukraine and other neighboring countries adds to urban rental demand.
The property types and areas in Poland that will benefit most from these demographic trends are compact apartments in walkable urban neighborhoods near employment centers and transit, as well as family-friendly housing in commuter towns with good rail or road connections to major cities.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Poland compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Poland?
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Poland as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Poland over the next 10 years is expected to range from 45% to 80% in nominal terms, representing a realistic path of continued but not explosive long-term appreciation.
The range of 10-year forecasts for Poland spans from a conservative scenario of around 40% total growth (if Poland faces extended economic challenges or affordability constraints) to an optimistic scenario of up to 100% (if strong growth, EU integration benefits, and infrastructure investment all align favorably).
The projected average annual appreciation rate for Polish property over the next 10 years is approximately 4% to 6% per year in nominal terms, which after inflation would translate to roughly 1% to 3% real annual gains.
The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year property price predictions for Poland is the interest rate regime, since what constitutes a "normal" mortgage rate over the next decade will profoundly affect affordability and demand in ways that are difficult to forecast with confidence.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Poland?
The top three long-term economic factors that will shape property prices in Poland over the next decade are sustained real income growth as productivity improves, the evolution of interest rates and what becomes the "new normal" for mortgage costs, and the responsiveness of housing supply to meet demand in the cities where people want to live.
The single long-term economic factor expected to have the most positive impact on property values in Poland is continued income convergence with Western Europe, as Polish wages grow faster than the EU average and buyers can afford more.
The single long-term economic factor posing the greatest structural risk to property values in Poland is demographic aging and potential population decline, which could weaken demand in smaller cities and rural areas even as major urban centers remain resilient.
You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Poland.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Poland, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why It's Authoritative | How We Used It |
|---|---|---|
| National Bank of Poland (NBP) Quarterly Reports | Poland's central bank publishes the country's flagship housing statistics and indices. | We use it as the backbone for transaction prices, indices, and affordability metrics. We cross-check trends against other datasets to ensure accuracy. |
| NBP Housing Price Information (Q3 2025) | Official central bank report focused specifically on housing prices and market conditions. | We use it to anchor late-2025 price direction and transaction dynamics. We then roll forward carefully to January 2026 with conservative assumptions. |
| AMRON-SARFiN (Polish Bank Association) | Long-running bank-industry system tracking mortgage and transaction metrics across Poland. | We use it for city-level transaction PLN per square meter benchmarks. We triangulate these against NBP and consultancy asking-price data. |
| European Commission Poland Forecast | EU's official macro forecasting arm, widely used as a baseline across Europe. | We use it to frame the 2026 demand backdrop including growth, inflation, and fiscal stance. We translate that into housing tailwind or headwind assessments. |
| IMF DataMapper (WEO Dataset) | Standard global reference dataset for macroeconomic assumptions. | We use it as a cross-check on 2026 growth and inflation expectations. We also use it for long-run plausibility checks in our 10-year outlook. |
| OECD Economic Outlook Poland | Top-tier international organization with consistent methodology across countries. | We use it to sanity-check the medium-term demand story. We also stress-test risk scenarios like weaker EU growth. |
| Eurostat House Price Index | EU's official statistics provider defining comparable HPI methodology. | We use it for directional EU comparisons and to cross-check turning points versus Polish-only sources. |
| BIS Residential Property Prices | Central banks' bank documenting cross-country property price indicator coverage. | We use it to validate that our trend direction is consistent with internationally comparable series. It guards against cherry-picking local indices. |
| FRED Real Residential Property Prices Poland | Transparent distribution of BIS data with easy historic access. | We use it to cross-check inflation-adjusted direction into mid-2025. We keep our long-horizon forecast realistic using this series. |
| NBP POLONIA Reference Rate | NBP's own published money-market reference rate data. | We use it as a reality check for financing conditions and interest rate direction. We translate rate moves into affordability and demand changes. |
| Cushman & Wakefield Poland Residential Marketbeat | Major global real estate consultancy with recurring market methodology. | We use it to capture primary-market asking prices and city rankings. We triangulate against AMRON transaction prices. |
| Otodom Analytics | One of Poland's best-known housing data platforms with broad listing coverage. | We use it for neighborhood and district examples and heat map logic. We treat it as asking-price intelligence and cross-check against transaction series. |
| Global Property Guide Poland | Clearly attributes inputs and is useful for reconciling multiple official series. | We use it only as a triangulation layer to confirm direction and magnitude match NBP, GUS, and EU datasets. |
| EY Polish Real Estate Guide 2025 | Comprehensive professional analysis covering legal, tax, and market aspects. | We use it for context on regulatory changes and investment trends. We incorporate their sectoral forecasts into our broader outlook. |
| JLL Poland Research | Leading global real estate services firm with deep Polish market coverage. | We use their rate cut and market recovery forecasts to calibrate our 2026 projections. We cross-reference their city-level insights. |
| CBRE Poland Market Research | Major commercial real estate consultancy with regular residential market updates. | We use their analysis of supply-demand dynamics and financing conditions. We incorporate their forward-looking commentary on buyer behavior. |
| Trading Economics Poland HPI | Aggregates Eurostat data with clear historical charting. | We use it for quick reference on quarterly HPI movements. We verify against primary Eurostat sources. |
| Statistics Poland (GUS) | Poland's official national statistics office. | We use it for population data, household formation trends, and construction activity statistics. We rely on it for demographic projections. |
| Worldometer Poland Population | Elaborates UN population data with accessible current estimates. | We use it for quick reference on current population and urbanization rates. We cross-check against GUS and UN primary sources. |
| Warsaw Metro Documentation | Compiled infrastructure project timelines with public source references. | We use it to track M2 completion dates and M3 planning timelines. We translate infrastructure milestones into neighborhood price impact assessments. |
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If you want to go deeper, you can read the following: