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Warsaw property prices in 2026 are still rising, but the market is much calmer than during the big price jumps of 2021 to 2023.
In this article, we look at current housing prices in Warsaw, recent price changes, and the most realistic property price forecasts for the city.
We constantly update this blog post when new Warsaw housing data, interest rate decisions, and official economic forecasts are released.
And if you’re planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Warsaw.
What are the current property price trends in Warsaw as of 2026?
What is the average house price in Warsaw as of 2026?
As of 2026, the average residential property price in Warsaw is about PLN 1.05 million, which is roughly USD 290,000 or EUR 247,000 for a typical apartment sized around 55 to 60 square meters.
This average fits with a citywide Warsaw property price of about PLN 18,000 per square meter, or roughly USD 4,950 and EUR 4,240 per square meter, while new-build apartments are closer to PLN 19,400 per square meter.
In practical terms, around 80% of normal residential purchases in Warsaw in 2026 probably fall between PLN 750,000 and PLN 1.8 million, or about USD 205,000 to USD 495,000 and EUR 177,000 to EUR 424,000.
How much have property prices increased in Warsaw over the past 12 months?
Warsaw property prices increased by about 5% over the past 12 months, which means the city is still getting more expensive, but not at a boom pace.
Across different residential property types in Warsaw, new apartments rose by about 6% to 7%, resale apartments rose by about 3% to 5%, and larger houses rose by about 2% to 4%.
The main reason Warsaw property prices kept rising was that buyer demand improved in early 2026 while developers offered fewer new apartments for sale.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Warsaw as of 2026?
As of 2026, the three Warsaw neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices are likely Gocław, Praga-Południe, and Bemowo.
Gocław property prices are probably up about 8% to 10% year on year, Praga-Południe about 7% to 9%, and Bemowo about 6% to 8%.
The main demand driver is transport improvement, because Warsaw buyers pay more for areas that shorten commuting time to the city center, office hubs, and metro lines.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Warsaw.
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Which property types are increasing faster in value in Warsaw as of 2026?
As of 2026, the Warsaw ranking by value growth is apartments first, then townhouses, then detached houses and villas, while condos are best understood as apartments because Warsaw does not treat condos as a separate mainstream residential category.
The top-performing residential property type in Warsaw is the compact apartment, with annual appreciation of about 6% to 8% in the best transport-connected areas.
Compact Warsaw apartments are outperforming because local buyers, renters, students, and corporate tenants all compete for the same easy-to-rent flats near metro, tram, universities, and office districts.
Finally, if you’re interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
What is driving property prices up or down in Warsaw as of 2026?
As of 2026, the three biggest forces driving Warsaw property prices are strong local jobs, limited new apartment supply, and mortgage affordability shaped by Polish interest rates.
The strongest upward pressure comes from Warsaw’s labour market, because low unemployment and high salaries allow more households to keep bidding for well-located apartments.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Warsaw here.
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What is the property price forecast for Warsaw in 2026?
How much are property prices expected to increase in Warsaw in 2026?
As of 2026, Warsaw residential property prices are expected to increase by about 5% over the full year.
A realistic forecast range for Warsaw property price growth in 2026 is about 3% to 7%, depending on interest rates, buyer confidence, and how many new apartments developers launch.
The main assumption behind most Warsaw price forecasts is that Poland’s economy keeps growing, wages stay solid, and mortgage conditions do not become worse again.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Warsaw.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Warsaw in 2026?
As of 2026, the Warsaw neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth are Gocław, Praga-Południe, Bemowo, Wola, Ursus, Białołęka, and selected parts of Mokotów.
These stronger Warsaw neighborhoods could rise by about 6% to 9% in 2026, compared with roughly 5% for the city overall.
The primary catalyst is better transport access, especially the M3 metro story for Gocław and Praga-Południe, the M2 extension effect in Bemowo, and office-led demand in Wola.
One emerging Warsaw neighborhood that could surprise on the upside is Ursus, because it still offers better value for families priced out of Mokotów, Wola, and Żoliborz.
By the way, we’ve written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Warsaw.
What property types will appreciate the most in Warsaw in 2026?
As of 2026, apartments are expected to appreciate the most in Warsaw, especially compact one-bedroom and two-bedroom flats near metro, tram, universities, and office hubs.
The projected appreciation for these top-performing Warsaw apartments is about 6% to 8% in 2026.
The main demand trend is simple: many people want smaller, easy-to-finance, easy-to-rent homes in Warsaw, while larger homes need a much bigger budget.
Large detached houses and luxury villas are expected to underperform because high total prices reduce the number of buyers who can afford them.
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How will interest rates affect property prices in Warsaw in 2026?
As of 2026, interest rates are still the main brake on Warsaw property prices, because mortgage payments remain heavy even after conditions improved from the 2022 to 2024 peak.
The NBP reference rate is 3.75% in June 2026, and most buyers expect mortgage rates to ease only gradually if inflation stays under control.
In Warsaw, a 1% fall in mortgage rates can noticeably improve affordability and push prices toward the upper end of the forecast, while a 1% rise would quickly hurt demand for ordinary flats above PLN 20,000 per square meter.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Poland.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Warsaw in 2026?
As of 2026, the three biggest risks for Warsaw property prices are affordability fatigue, delayed interest rate cuts, and overpriced stock in premium districts.
The risk most likely to happen in Warsaw is affordability fatigue, because many buyers can still purchase, but only if the price, building quality, and transport access make sense.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Warsaw.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Warsaw in 2026?
As of 2026, it can be a good time to buy a rental property in Warsaw, but only if the buyer chooses a liquid apartment and avoids overpaying for prestige.
The strongest argument for buying now is that Warsaw has deep rental demand from local professionals, students, corporate tenants, and international workers.
The strongest argument for waiting is that gross yields are not high in prime areas, so a buyer who pays too much may earn a weak return even if the apartment is easy to rent.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Warsaw.
You’ll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Warsaw.
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Where will property prices be in 5 years in Warsaw?
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Warsaw as of 2026?
As of 2026, Warsaw residential property prices are expected to be about 25% to 35% higher over the next 5 years.
A conservative 5-year Warsaw forecast is about 20% cumulative growth, while an optimistic scenario is closer to 40% if wages keep rising and mortgage rates fall.
This means the average annual appreciation rate in Warsaw over the next 5 years is likely to be around 4.5% to 6%.
The key assumption is that Warsaw remains Poland’s strongest job market and that new housing supply does not fully catch up with demand in the best-connected districts.
Which areas in Warsaw will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The three Warsaw areas expected to have the best price growth over the next 5 years are Praga-Południe and Gocław, Bemowo and Chrzanów, and value parts of Ursus.
These top-performing Warsaw areas could see 35% to 45% cumulative price growth over 5 years if transport improvements and affordability migration continue.
This differs slightly from the shorter 2026 forecast because Wola remains strong in the near term, while cheaper family districts may have more room to outperform over 5 years.
The currently undervalued Warsaw area with the best outperformance potential is Ursus, because it combines lower entry prices, rail access, and strong demand from families.
What property type will give the best return in Warsaw over 5 years as of 2026?
As of 2026, small and mid-sized apartments are expected to give the best total return in Warsaw over 5 years.
A good compact Warsaw apartment could deliver about 50% to 70% total nominal return over 5 years when price growth and gross rental income are combined before costs and taxes.
The main structural trend is that Warsaw keeps attracting renters and first-time buyers who want practical homes near transport rather than large, expensive properties.
The best balance of return and lower risk is probably a 35 to 55 square meter apartment in Bemowo, Mokotów, Praga-Południe, Wola, or near a strong tram and metro corridor.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Warsaw over 5 years?
The three major infrastructure projects most likely to affect Warsaw property prices over the next 5 years are the planned M3 metro, the final M2 metro extension toward Karolin, and improved tram connections such as the Wilanów route.
In Warsaw, homes close to completed metro or strong tram access often trade with a clear premium, and a practical range is about 5% to 15% compared with similar homes in weaker locations.
The neighborhoods most likely to benefit are Gocław, Grochów, Rondo Wiatraczna, Praga-Południe, Bemowo, Chrzanów, Wilanów, and southern Mokotów.
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Warsaw in 5 years?
Warsaw’s official population is likely to grow slowly over the next 5 years, but even modest growth can support prices because the city already has a tight and expensive housing market.
The demographic shift with the biggest impact will be the rise of smaller, higher-income households that want modern apartments close to jobs, transport, and services.
Domestic migration from smaller Polish cities and international migration should keep rental demand strong, especially while Warsaw remains the country’s main corporate and public-sector hub.
Compact apartments in Mokotów, Wola, Bemowo, Praga-Południe, Ursus, and Białołęka should benefit most from these demographic trends.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Poland compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Warsaw?
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Warsaw as of 2026?
As of 2026, Warsaw residential property prices are expected to be about 55% to 75% higher over the next 10 years in nominal terms.
A conservative 10-year Warsaw forecast is around 45% cumulative growth, while an optimistic forecast is around 85% if income growth, infrastructure, and mortgage access remain supportive.
This equals a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 4.5% to 5.8% for Warsaw property over the next decade.
The biggest uncertainty is affordability, because Warsaw can keep getting more expensive only if wages and mortgage access rise enough to support higher prices.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Warsaw?
The three long-term factors that will shape Warsaw property prices are income growth, infrastructure expansion, and the balance between new housing supply and demand.
The most positive long-term factor is Warsaw’s position as Poland’s strongest labour market, because higher-paying jobs support both buyers and renters.
The greatest structural risk is that prices rise faster than local incomes, which would push demand outward and slow growth in the most expensive districts.
You’ll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Warsaw.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it’s in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Warsaw, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don’t throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we’ve listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why this source is reliable | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| CBRE Poland, Warsaw and Poland Living Figures Q1 2026 | CBRE is a major real estate adviser with direct developer-market data. | We used it for Warsaw’s Q1 2026 new-build price, sales, supply, and annual price growth. We treated it as the strongest current snapshot of Warsaw’s primary market. |
| JLL Poland, Residential Market in Poland Q1 2026 | JLL is one of the main institutional property consultancies active in Poland. | We used it to cross-check sales recovery, lower new supply, and city-level market momentum. We also used its commentary to understand why demand improved in early 2026. |
| Narodowy Bank Polski, Real Estate Market Quarterly Report | NBP is Poland’s central bank and publishes official housing-market analysis. | We used it to compare asking prices with transaction-price and hedonic-price context. We used this to avoid over-relying on developer offer prices. |
| Narodowy Bank Polski, Interest Rates | NBP is the official source for Polish monetary policy rates. | We used it for the June 2026 reference rate of 3.75%. We linked this rate to mortgage affordability and buyer demand in Warsaw. |
| Statistical Office in Warsaw | This is the official GUS regional office for Warsaw and Mazowieckie. | We used it for Warsaw population, employment, wages, unemployment, and housing context. We used these indicators to judge the depth of local housing demand. |
| Statistics Poland, Local Data Bank | This is Poland’s official local statistical database. | We used it as a benchmark for demographic and housing-supply context. We also used it to compare Warsaw with wider Mazowieckie and national patterns. |
| European Commission, Poland Economic Forecast | The European Commission publishes transparent macro forecasts for EU economies. | We used it for Poland’s 2026 growth, inflation, and labour-market outlook. We used those macro assumptions as the base for Warsaw price forecasts. |
| Cushman & Wakefield Poland Residential MarketBeat | Cushman & Wakefield is a large international adviser with Polish housing research. | We used it as a second private-sector check on demand, supply, and pricing. We used it to validate the direction of the residential market. |
| City of Warsaw, M3 Metro Project | The City of Warsaw is the official source for local infrastructure planning. | We used it to identify areas affected by the planned third metro line. We linked this to medium-term price upside in Gocław and Praga-Południe. |
| Warsaw Public Transport Authority | WTP is the official source for Warsaw public transport information. | We used it to understand why transport access matters so much in Warsaw. We used this to frame metro and tram premiums across residential districts. |
| European Central Bank, EUR to PLN reference rate | The ECB publishes official euro foreign-exchange reference rates. | We used it for the June 2026 EUR to PLN conversion. We rounded currency figures so readers can understand prices quickly. |
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