Is 2025 a good time to buy real estate in Poland?

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Everything you need to know is included in our Poland Pack

Are you thinking of investing in property in Poland? Are you unsure when would be the best time to proceed?

Market timing is a topic where everyone has their own ideas. The Polish real estate agent you know might advise you that now is the perfect time to buy property, while your childhood friend from Warsaw may suggest exercising more patience before making a decision.

At Investropa, when we create articles or update our pack of documents related to the real estate market in Poland, we base our work on facts and data we can trust, not opinions or rumors.

After thoroughly analyzing official reports and statistics available on government websites, we have gathered solid information in a database. Here are our findings that can assist you in determining whether it's the right time to invest in real estate in Poland.

Enjoy the article!

How is the property market in Poland these days?

Poland offers, today, a lot of stability to investors

Positive

Stability is a necessary condition when investing in real estate because it safeguards against market fluctuations and uncertainties. It is an information you need as a foreigner looking to buy a property in Poland.

You probably know it already, Poland is very stable. The last Fragile State Index reported for this country is 41.7, which is an outstanding number.

Poland offers stability to investors due to its robust economic growth, driven by a diversified economy with strong sectors such as manufacturing, IT, and services, which have shown resilience even during global downturns. Additionally, its strategic location within the European Union provides access to a large market and benefits from EU funding, while maintaining a stable political environment with consistent pro-business policies.

Next, let's assess the economic projections.

Poland will see substantial development

Positive

Second thing to do before buying a property: make sure the country's economy is thriving.

According to the IMF, Poland is likely to finish 2024 with a growth rate of 3.1%, which reflects the country's forward momentum. Regarding 2025, the figure we're looking at is 3.5%.

Besides that, the economy will keep growing since Poland's economy is expected to increase by 14.5% during the next 5 years, resulting in an average GDP growth rate of 2.9%.

The expected sustainable growth rate in Poland indicates a stable and growing economy, which can lead to increased demand for real estate as more people and businesses seek properties. This growth can drive property values up over time, making it a potentially profitable investment for real estate investors.

However, GDP growth is not the only metric to look at.

Polish business owners don't have faith in the economy

Negative

GDP growth is great, but it may not fully capture the diverse expectations of businesses in the Polish property market. Luckily, in Poland there exists an official metric that is consistently published. It's not the case for every country, so we're lucky.

By conducting surveys and assessments of business leaders, the Business Consumer Index (BCI) is formulated as a metric to measure their confidence in the present and future economic conditions.

According to the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS)'s data, the latest Business Confidence Index value is -10 for Poland. It's a score that can be regarded as "worrisomee.

This is not new, business operators were not confident 12 months ago either. The BCI score, back then, was at -13.

The negative level of the Business Confidence Index in Poland could result in a subdued property market. Economic uncertainty might hinder investment and growth in the real estate sector. Buyers may encounter fewer property options, limited potential for appreciation, and challenges in securing financing due to cautious lending practices.However, it's important to recognize that this negative sentiment alone does not directly impact growth. There have been numerous instances where a negative BCI was followed by growth. Therefore, it's crucial to consider additional data points.

Poland is dispensing less building permits

Negative

If you're thinking of investing in property in a country, it's advisable to consider the number of permits authorized for property development. When there is a rise in the number of building permits being delivered, it indicates that the property market is growing and moving in a positive direction.

Unfortunately, the number of building permits issued is declining in Poland.

Within the past year, according to Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS), the number of building permits granted by Polish local institutions fell by 20.2%, from 784,753 to 626,458 units.

Without a doubt, this is a discouraging signal. Let's analyze more data.

But before that, keep in mind that if there is a reduction in building permits, it will result in a diminished supply of real estate. Consequently, there is a higher chance of property prices increasing in Poland in 2025.

Property prices keep increasing in Poland

Positive

Poland's home prices have increased by 57.3% in 5 years according to eurostat.

It means that if you had bought a flat in Warsaw for $400,000 five years ago, then it would now be worth around $629,000.

In recent times, the Polish property market has exhibited relentless and accelerating growth. Property values have consistently risen, and market dynamics have intensified.

It's a good sign if you're thinking of buying a property in Poland. The market is lively and getting stronger. However, it might be a good idea to wait for prices to go down before making your investment. That way, you can get a better deal.

You can find a more detailed analysis of the real estate prices in our property pack for Poland.

Everything you need to know is included in our Poland Property Pack

Poland's population is getting a lot richer

Positive

When you're looking to buy real estate, population growth and GDP per capita deserve careful consideration because:

• a growing population means more people needing homes
• a higher GDP per person means people have more money to spend on housing (which can lead to increased property value over time)

In Poland, the average GDP per capita has changed by 15.9% over the last 5 years. It ranks the country in the top 10 for the growth of this indicator.

This means that, if you purchase a stylish apartment in Warsaw and rent it out, you will find that each year, you'll attract more tenants with sufficient funds to cover the rent.

If you're considering purchasing and renting it out, this trend is a good thing. Then, the demand for rentals is predicted to increase in cities like Warsaw or Kraków in 2025.

Rental yields are average in Poland

Neutral

Rental yield is a common measure in real estate investing.

It shows you the percentage return you can expect from renting out the property.

According to Numbeo, rental properties in Poland offer gross rental yields ranging from 2.4% and 5.1%. You can find a more detailed analysis (by property and areas) in our pack of documents related to the real estate market in Poland.

It means that your income potential is relatively moderate.

As we noted earlier, there is a chance that housing prices may go up due to a shortage of available homes (less building permits). Nonetheless, there will be a lot more of wealthy tenants seeking rental properties. Then, rental yields will probably remain at the same level in Poland in 2025.

Everything you need to know is included in our Poland Property Pack

In Poland, inflation is projected to remain minimal

Neutral

In two words, inflation is when prices rise.

It's when your customary plate of pierogi costs 20 Polish złoty instead of 18 Polish złoty a couple of years ago.

If you're considering investing in a property, high inflation can bring you several advantages:

• Property values tend to increase over time, leading to potential capital appreciation.
• Inflation can result in higher rental rates, thereby increasing the cash flow from the property.
• Inflation reduces the real value of debt, making mortgage payments more affordable.
• Real estate can act as a hedge against inflation, preserving the value of the investment.
• Diversifying into real estate provides stability during inflationary periods.

According to the IMF, over the next 5 years, Poland will have an inflation rate of 1.0%, which gives us an average yearly increase of 0.2%.

This data is suggesting that Poland is expected to have near-zero inflation then. Unfortunately, buying a property now may not lead to significant price increases or high profits in the future.

Is it a good time to buy real estate in Poland then?

Time to conclude !

2025 is shaping up to be an excellent time to invest in property in Poland, thanks to the country's current stability and promising economic outlook. Poland has been a beacon of stability for investors, offering a secure environment to put their money into. This stability is crucial for real estate investments, as it reduces the risks associated with market volatility. With a stable political and economic climate, investors can feel more confident about the long-term prospects of their property investments in Poland.

Moreover, Poland's economy is on a growth trajectory, with an expected increase of 14.5% over the next five years, translating to an average GDP growth rate of 2.9%. This sustainable growth indicates a robust and expanding economy, which is likely to spur demand for real estate. As the economy grows, more people and businesses will be looking for properties, driving up property values. This makes 2025 a potentially profitable time for real estate investors to enter the Polish market, as they can benefit from the appreciation of property values over time.

Another factor to consider is the limited issuance of building permits in Poland. With fewer new properties being built, the existing properties become more valuable due to the scarcity of supply. This scarcity, combined with the increasing property prices, suggests that investing in real estate now could yield significant returns in the future. Additionally, as Poland's population becomes wealthier, there will be a greater demand for quality housing, further boosting property values.

Rental properties in Poland also offer attractive returns, with gross rental yields ranging from 2.4% to 5.1%, according to Numbeo. This makes rental properties a viable investment option, providing a steady income stream. Furthermore, with inflation projected to remain minimal, the purchasing power of rental income is likely to be preserved, enhancing the overall profitability of property investments. All these factors combined make 2025 an opportune time to buy property in Poland, whether for personal use or as an investment.

We hope this article has been helpful!. If you need to know more, you can check our our pack of documents related to the real estate market in Poland.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are advised to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided.