Is Warsaw property finally getting cheaper?

See what went wrong for property buyers in Warsaw

Is Warsaw property actually getting cheaper now?

Warsaw property is getting cheaper in practical terms, although most apartments still cost more in złoty than they did a year ago.

That sounds contradictory, but the latest data make the distinction fairly clear. The newest completed NBP transaction data still show annual price increases in Warsaw rather than a citywide fall. At the same time, those increases have slowed sharply compared with the previous boom, while developer asking prices have recently dipped and buyers have far more choice.

The latest RynekPierwotny data add something new. Warsaw's average new-build asking price has fallen for two consecutive readings, reaching roughly PLN 19,600 per square meter. Yet RynekPierwotny says the decline mainly came from cheaper projects entering the market rather than developers cutting prices across existing projects.

So there is a correction underway, just a less dramatic one than the word "cheaper" might suggest. Buyers can negotiate harder, more lower-priced stock is appearing and incomes have been catching up with property values. A broad nominal fall in completed transaction prices has yet to arrive.

What is changing in Warsaw?	Latest direction	How strong is it?	What it means
New-build asking prices	Down lately	Two consecutive declines	First visible softening
New-build transaction prices	Still above last year	Low single-digit growth	No broad nominal correction yet
Resale transaction prices	Almost flat year on year	Weaker than new builds	Sellers have lost pricing power
Available new-build stock	Rising	Roughly 11,950 current listings	Buyers have much more choice
Affordability versus wages	Improving	Wages rising faster than home prices	Housing is getting cheaper relative to income

Why does Warsaw property suddenly feel cheaper?

Warsaw property feels cheaper these days because buyers no longer have to chase a market where almost every important indicator is moving against them.

The change is easiest to see in developer stock. RynekPierwotny's latest Warsaw data show roughly 11,950 apartments available, up from about 10,700 in its earlier summer snapshot. That is an increase of around 12% in a fairly short period.

At the same time, the citywide new-build average has moved down from almost PLN 19,900 to around PLN 19,600 per square meter. The fall itself is modest. The interesting part is what caused it: developers brought more mainstream apartments to market at an average around PLN 16,400 per square meter, well below Warsaw's overall level.

For a buyer, that changes the experience of searching. More projects compete for the same budget, cheaper alternatives appear more often, and walking away from an overpriced apartment is easier than during the boom.

Have actual Warsaw apartment prices started falling?

Warsaw transaction prices have not entered a sustained decline yet, so anyone waiting for clear evidence of a housing crash is still waiting.

The latest NBP quarterly transaction data put new apartments at around PLN 16,800 per square meter and resale apartments at roughly PLN 16,700. Both remained slightly above their year-earlier levels.

The important change is the speed. Warsaw previously went through periods when apartment prices were rising by double digits annually. We are now looking at increases of only a few percent or less, depending on the segment.

There was also an earlier quarterly drop in parts of the resale data, followed by a rebound. One falling quarter can happen in a flat market. We would need several consecutive declines before calling it a genuine downward price cycle.

For now, Warsaw prices have stopped running away from buyers. They have not convincingly started running backwards.

Are Warsaw sellers finally accepting lower prices?

Warsaw sellers have clearly lost some negotiating power, especially in the resale market.

NBP's latest available price series shows a large difference between advertised prices and completed transactions. On the resale market, average asking prices were around PLN 19,100 per square meter while completed deals were closer to PLN 16,700. On new apartments, the corresponding figures were roughly PLN 18,500 and PLN 16,800.

We should not call the entire difference a negotiation discount. The homes entering an asking-price dataset are not exactly the same homes that complete during the quarter, and expensive listings can remain advertised for longer.

Even with that caveat, a gap of more than PLN 2,000 per square meter on resale housing tells us something useful: buyers do not need to treat the advertised number as the market price. On a 60-square-meter apartment, PLN 2,000 per square meter represents PLN 120,000.

Warsaw apartment segment	Average asking level	Average completed price	Approx. gap	Gap on 60 m²
New apartments	PLN 18,500/m²	PLN 16,800/m²	PLN 1,700/m²	PLN 102,000
Resale apartments	PLN 19,100/m²	PLN 16,700/m²	PLN 2,400/m²	PLN 144,000

Are developers actually cutting Warsaw apartment prices?

Warsaw developers are competing harder for buyers, but broad price-list cuts still appear to be the exception rather than the rule.

RynekPierwotny explicitly traced the latest fall in Warsaw's average asking price to the composition of new supply. More relatively affordable projects entered the market, pulling the citywide average lower.

That still helps buyers. A family does not particularly care whether its cheaper PLN 800,000 option exists because a developer discounted an old apartment or because another developer launched a competing project at PLN 800,000. Either way, the family has gained an alternative.

Promotions also let developers improve a deal without visibly lowering the official square-meter price. Parking spaces, storage units, finishing packages and discounts on selected units can reduce the effective cost while protecting headline prices elsewhere in the scheme.

For the moment, it looks more like quiet competition than aggressive repricing.

Is Warsaw getting cheaper because there are too many apartments for sale?

Warsaw now has enough new apartments for sale to put developers under pressure, although the city is still a long way from obvious oversupply distress.

The current RynekPierwotny snapshot contains roughly 11,950 new apartments. Around 1,500 are already completed. More than 8,000, however, have delivery dates more than a year away.

That distinction is important. A developer sitting on hundreds of completed empty apartments has a strong reason to discount them. A developer selling apartments that will only be handed over much later has more time to wait.

Still, the direction has become more favorable for buyers. Total advertised new-build stock increased from roughly 10,700 to nearly 12,000 between two recent snapshots.

Around 3,600 current listings also cost more than PLN 1 million, compared with only a handful below PLN 400,000. Warsaw therefore has plenty of supply overall without having a huge supply of genuinely cheap homes.

Current Warsaw new-build offer	Approx. apartments	Share of offer	What it tells us
Below PLN 400,000	3	Almost zero	Ultra-cheap stock barely exists
PLN 400,000–600,000	1,430	12%	Entry-level choice remains limited
PLN 600,000–800,000	4,060	34%	Main affordable segment
PLN 800,000–1m	2,830	24%	Large middle-market pool
Above PLN 1m	3,620	30%	Million-złoty homes are normal
Total	About 11,950	100%	Buyers have substantial choice

Where can you actually find cheaper property in Warsaw?

Cheaper Warsaw property is concentrated in outer districts such as Białołęka, Targówek, Rembertów and Ursus rather than spread evenly across the city.

Current RynekPierwotny listings put Białołęka around PLN 14,000 per square meter, Targówek around PLN 15,200 and Ursus around PLN 15,400. Wola is above PLN 27,000, while the limited new-build stock in Śródmieście is above PLN 35,000 on the citywide district table and even higher in some current project-level calculations.

This is an enormous spread. A 60-square-meter apartment priced at PLN 14,000 per square meter costs PLN 840,000 before extras. At PLN 27,000, the same floor area reaches PLN 1.62 million.

Białołęka deserves particular attention because it combines low relative prices with scale. More than 2,600 new apartments are advertised there, far more than in most districts. It therefore acts as one of Warsaw's main pressure valves when buyers cannot afford central locations.

Warsaw district	Current new-build asking level	60 m² at that rate	Relative position
Białołęka	about PLN 14,000/m²	about PLN 840,000	Among the cheapest large markets
Targówek	about PLN 15,200/m²	about PLN 912,000	Affordable by Warsaw standards
Ursus	about PLN 15,400/m²	about PLN 924,000	Large mainstream market
Mokotów	about PLN 19,200/m²	about PLN 1.15m	Around the city middle
Wola	about PLN 27,400/m²	about PLN 1.64m	Major premium
Śródmieście	above PLN 35,000/m²	above PLN 2.1m	A different price category

Are Warsaw resale apartments finally cheaper than new ones?

Warsaw resale apartments currently offer almost no automatic price advantage over new apartments at transaction level.

The latest NBP averages place completed new-build and resale transactions remarkably close together, both around PLN 16,700–16,800 per square meter.

That means buyers need to look beyond the "new versus old" label. A finished resale apartment may include a kitchen, floors, wardrobes and lighting, while a developer unit can still require substantial finishing expenditure. Older buildings can bring renovation costs, weaker energy performance or larger maintenance bills.

The cheaper purchase can therefore switch from one segment to the other depending on the individual property.

Warsaw's resale market becomes especially interesting when the seller actually needs to sell. With asking prices sitting well above completed prices, a motivated resale seller can offer a better opportunity than a developer holding firm on a price list.

Are small Warsaw apartments getting cheaper too?

Small Warsaw apartments remain expensive per square meter, so the cooling is much less obvious for someone shopping for a studio.

Compact homes carry a persistent premium because buyers can reach the total purchase price more easily even when the price per square meter looks extreme. Investors and first-time buyers also compete heavily in this part of the market.

The result is that a buyer can hear that Warsaw housing is cooling and still find a 30-square-meter apartment priced far above the citywide rate per square meter.

Current district data show the same pattern at a local level. In Białołęka, for example, the average studio is around PLN 15,000 per square meter while three-room apartments are closer to PLN 13,600. That is roughly a 10% premium for buying less space.

For anyone whose budget forces them into the smallest apartments, Warsaw feels less cheap than the headline averages suggest.

Are Warsaw apartments becoming cheaper relative to salaries?

Warsaw apartments are becoming noticeably cheaper relative to local earnings, and this is one of the clearest improvements for buyers.

Recent Warsaw wage data have shown annual pay growth comfortably above the low-single-digit growth recorded in completed apartment transactions. When income rises 7% while a home rises 1–2%, the number of months of salary represented by each square meter falls.

A simple example shows the scale. If property rises 1.5% while wages rise 7%, the price-to-income ratio improves by roughly 5% in a year even though the apartment itself never gets a lower nominal price tag.

That is how a housing market can correct without headlines announcing a crash.

The improvement still comes after a painful run-up. Warsaw prices increased so quickly during the earlier boom that one year of better wage growth cannot restore the affordability buyers had several years ago. But the direction has finally turned in their favor.

Is inflation also making Warsaw property cheaper?

Warsaw apartments have lately been losing ground in real terms whenever transaction-price growth stays below consumer inflation.

If an apartment gains roughly 1–2% while general prices rise faster, the owner sees a higher number in złoty but the property's purchasing power has fallen.

For a buyer, that kind of correction is less visible than a red "-10%" on a property index. Economically, though, it does part of the same job. Salaries, goods and services catch up while the home price largely sits still.

Combine that with better nominal wage growth and Warsaw's correction becomes more meaningful than the headline price chart suggests.

So judging the market only by whether the average apartment costs fewer złoty than last year misses quite a lot. Relative affordability is already improving.

Is Warsaw finally cheap compared with Kraków, Wrocław and other Polish cities?

Warsaw remains expensive even after the market cooled, so "getting cheaper" should not be confused with "cheap."

The latest RynekPierwotny comparison puts Warsaw new-build asking prices around PLN 19,600 per square meter. Kraków is roughly PLN 17,300, the Tricity PLN 17,900, Wrocław PLN 15,900, Poznań PLN 14,300 and Łódź about PLN 11,600.

A Warsaw buyer therefore pays roughly 13% more than a Kraków buyer at those headline levels, around 23% more than in Wrocław and close to 70% more than in Łódź.

The Warsaw premium makes economic sense up to a point because the capital has Poland's deepest high-income labor market and attracts domestic and international demand. It also means that a mild Warsaw correction leaves plenty of room between "less expensive than before" and genuinely inexpensive housing.

Major market	New-build asking price	Warsaw premium	Approx. cost of 60 m²
Warsaw	PLN 19,600/m²	—	PLN 1.18m
Tricity	PLN 17,900/m²	9%	PLN 1.07m
Kraków	PLN 17,300/m²	13%	PLN 1.04m
Wrocław	PLN 15,900/m²	23%	PLN 954,000
Poznań	PLN 14,300/m²	37%	PLN 858,000
Łódź	PLN 11,600/m²	69%	PLN 696,000

Are cheaper mortgages about to stop Warsaw prices from falling?

Cheaper and more available mortgages are already putting a floor under Warsaw property prices, which makes a large nominal fall less likely.

Poland's BIK reported that the value of mortgage applications was 22% higher year on year in one recent reading. Its newest reading still shows 9.3% annual growth, while the number of applicants is 7% higher than a year earlier.

There is an interesting change underneath those annual numbers. Compared with the previous month, the number of applicants fell 14.4%, and the average requested mortgage dropped from roughly PLN 538,500 to PLN 525,700.

So mortgage demand remains stronger than a year ago, but the latest month was not another acceleration. That gives buyers some room without suggesting demand has disappeared.

Actual lending has recovered even more strongly. BIK says the value of mortgages granted over the first seven months of the year was 57.2% higher than in the comparable period a year earlier.

Developers therefore face more competition and more price-sensitive buyers just as mortgage finance is becoming easier to obtain. Slow stabilization looks more plausible than a dramatic crash.

Could Warsaw property prices start rising quickly again?

Warsaw prices could accelerate again if easier credit absorbs the extra supply before sellers are forced to lower their expectations.

The mortgage recovery is the obvious mechanism. More people can borrow, average requested loan sizes remain above PLN 500,000, and actual mortgage issuance is far stronger than it was a year ago.

Warsaw also has another cushion: much of the advertised developer stock is still under construction. As pointed out above, only around 1,500 of roughly 11,950 current new-build listings are completed. Developers therefore have time to sell most of the inventory rather than immediately clearing finished apartments at steep discounts.

A renewed boom is far from guaranteed. Buyers have become much more price-sensitive, the stock of competing apartments has grown and annual mortgage-demand growth has already cooled from the previous reading.

But anyone waiting for a 20% Warsaw property crash has a problem with that thesis: improving mortgage availability is arriving before developers have become desperate.

What would convince us that Warsaw property is really falling?

Warsaw property would clearly be in a falling market if completed transaction prices dropped for several quarters while finished unsold stock and seller discounts kept increasing.

Transaction prices are the first test because they show what buyers actually paid. Two consecutive monthly falls in a developer asking-price average are interesting, but they are weaker evidence when the portal itself says changing project mix caused much of the decline.

Completed inventory is the second test. The current market has nearly 12,000 developer listings, but only a minority are ready for immediate handover. If the completed portion starts climbing rapidly, the incentive to discount changes.

The third test is seller behaviour. A persistent widening between asking prices and actual deals, followed by sellers lowering the advertised prices themselves, would show that the negotiation gap has turned into genuine repricing.

We have pieces of that story today. We do not have all three together yet.

So is Warsaw property finally getting cheaper?

Yes, partly. Warsaw property is getting cheaper for buyers, but the evidence still falls short of a broad nominal price decline.

The strongest change is the combination rather than any single statistic. Developer asking prices have softened, almost 12,000 new apartments are competing for buyers, lower-priced projects are pulling more mainstream stock into the market, resale sellers are accepting substantially less than headline asking levels, and wages have been growing faster than completed apartment prices.

At the same time, Warsaw remains Poland's most expensive major housing market. New-build asking prices are still around PLN 19,600 per square meter, roughly 30% of advertised developer apartments cost more than PLN 1 million, and mortgage demand is stronger than it was a year ago.

Our judgment is sharper than "prices are stable." Warsaw has entered a real affordability correction. Buyers have more choice and more leverage, while salaries are slowly catching up with apartment values.

What Warsaw has not entered is a property crash. Anyone waiting for the average apartment to become dramatically cheaper in nominal złoty may still be disappointed.

For buyers who were priced out during the boom, though, today's Warsaw market is clearly friendlier than the one they were facing before.

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