Buying real estate in Valencia?

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How's the real estate market doing in Valencia? (2026)

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Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Spain Property Pack

property investment Valencia

Yes, the analysis of Valencia's property market is included in our pack

Valencia has become one of Europe's hottest real estate markets, with property prices jumping around 14% in 2025 alone, making it Spain's fastest-growing major city for housing appreciation.

In this guide, we break down everything you need to know about the Valencia property market in 2026: current housing prices, neighborhood trends, buyer challenges, and realistic projections.

We constantly update this blog post to make sure you always have the freshest data available.

And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Valencia.

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Fact-checked and reviewed by our local expert

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Anna Siudzinska 🇵🇱

Real Estate Agent

Anna Siudzińska is a seasoned business strategist and accomplished manager with a strong background in sales, marketing, and corporate expansion. With extensive experience in both domestic and international markets, she has developed deep expertise in Valencia’s real estate landscape, helping clients identify high-potential investment opportunities in the city.

How's the real estate market going in Valencia in 2026?

What's the average days-on-market in Valencia in 2026?

As of early 2026, the estimated average days-on-market for residential properties in Valencia is approximately 75 days for well-priced apartments, though overpriced or awkward listings can sit for 120 days or more.

For most typical listings in Valencia, you can expect properties to sell within 60 to 90 days if they are correctly priced, with the city ranking as Spain's third-fastest market for "express sales" where homes move in under three months.

Compared to one or two years ago, Valencia properties are selling faster because strong buyer demand and limited inventory have compressed the time-to-sell, whereas in 2023 the average was closer to 100 days.

Sources and methodology: we triangulated time-to-sell data from idealista's distribution reports, 20 Minutos regional coverage, and Tinsa valuation reports. We adjusted estimates based on our own internal sales velocity tracking for Valencia city. Our models account for the long tail of overpriced listings that inflate raw averages.

Are properties selling above or below asking in Valencia in 2026?

As of early 2026, the estimated average sale-to-asking price ratio in Valencia is around 93% to 96%, meaning most properties close at 4% to 7% below asking after negotiation.

Roughly 70% to 80% of Valencia properties sell at or below asking price, while only 10% to 20% of sales in the hottest micro-markets see bidding wars pushing prices to asking or slightly above; we are fairly confident in these ranges given portal-versus-notary data comparisons.

The property types and neighborhoods in Valencia most likely to see above-asking sales are renovated, move-in-ready apartments in central areas like Ruzafa, L'Eixample, and Ciutat Vella, where limited supply and high demand create occasional bidding competition.

By the way, you will find much more detailed data in our property pack covering the real estate market in Valencia.

Sources and methodology: we compared asking-price trends from idealista Valencia against completion data from Colegio Notarial de Valencia and Cadena SER portal analysis. We used our own negotiation gap estimates to reconcile "ask vs close" differences. Our internal data helped refine neighborhood-level patterns.
infographics map property prices Valencia

We created this infographic to give you a simple idea of how much it costs to buy property in different parts of Spain. As you can see, it breaks down price ranges and property types for popular cities in the country. We hope this makes it easier to explore your options and understand the market.

What kinds of residential properties can I realistically buy in Valencia?

What property types dominate in Valencia right now?

In Valencia in 2026, the estimated breakdown of available residential properties is roughly 70% existing apartments, 10% new-build apartments, 7% townhouses, and the remainder split between detached houses and penthouses.

Apartments (pisos) represent the largest share of Valencia's real estate market by far, making up around 80% of all listings and transactions because the city's urban fabric is dominated by mid-rise residential blocks.

Apartments became so prevalent in Valencia because the city developed as a dense Mediterranean urban center where land was scarce, building upward was practical, and the traditional "Ensanche" expansion style favored multi-story residential blocks over single-family homes.

If you want to know more, you should read our dedicated analyses:

Sources and methodology: we based property type breakdowns on INE transaction statistics, Tinsa valuation categories, and idealista listing composition. We cross-checked with our own market monitoring to validate the apartment-dominated profile. Our models reflect Valencia's specific built environment.

Are new builds widely available in Valencia right now?

The estimated share of new-build properties among all residential listings in Valencia is only about 10% to 15%, reflecting severe supply constraints due to limited buildable land and rising construction costs that have pushed new-build prices up over 60% since 2022.

As of early 2026, the neighborhoods in Valencia with the highest concentration of new-build developments are Quatre Carreres, Patraix, and Campanar, which together account for nearly half of all new homes currently for sale, while central districts like El Pla del Real, Algiros, and Benimaclet have virtually no new construction available.

Sources and methodology: we compiled new-build availability from idealista's Valencia new-build report, CaixaBank Research supply analysis, and Foro Consultores Inmobiliarios data. We validated district-level concentrations with our own listing tracking. Our estimates reflect current stock of approximately 840 unsold new units citywide.

Get fresh and reliable information about the market in Valencia

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buying property foreigner Valencia

Which neighborhoods are improving fastest in Valencia in 2026?

Which areas in Valencia are gentrifying in 2026?

As of early 2026, the top neighborhoods in Valencia showing the clearest signs of gentrification are El Cabanyal-Canyamelar (benefiting from a major city regeneration program), Benimaclet (attracting young professionals and students), Natzaret (boosted by Line 10 metro connectivity), and the edges of Ruzafa where spillover demand is pushing into adjacent blocks.

In these gentrifying Valencia neighborhoods, you can see new specialty coffee shops and co-working spaces replacing traditional bars, historic fishermen's houses being converted into boutique rentals, an influx of foreign residents (especially from Northern Europe), and municipal rehabilitation crews working on facades and public squares funded by the Cabanyal regeneration budget.

The estimated price appreciation in Valencia's gentrifying neighborhoods over the past two to three years has been dramatic: El Cabanyal has seen increases of 20% to 30%, Benimaclet around 15% to 20%, and formerly affordable areas like L'Olivereta and Jesus have doubled in some blocks according to district-level data.

By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Valencia.

Sources and methodology: we identified gentrification signals using Valencia City's Cabanyal regeneration budget, FGV Metrovalencia expansion plans, and Tinsa district price series. We mapped public investment to specific streets and tracked demographic shifts through municipal data. Our field observations confirmed the visible transformation patterns.

Where are infrastructure projects boosting demand in Valencia in 2026?

As of early 2026, the top areas in Valencia where major infrastructure projects are boosting housing demand are the central-south corridor near Joaquin Sorolla station (Parque Central works), the Grau-Canyamelar coastal strip (metro Line 10), and northern industrial zones near the Port of Valencia expansion.

The specific infrastructure projects driving demand in Valencia include ADIF's Canal de Acceso rail works (improving high-speed train access and creating the new Parque Central urban park), Metrovalencia's Line 10/11/12 expansion planning (connecting maritime districts to the network), and the Port of Valencia's approved northern expansion (a multi-billion euro project creating logistics jobs).

The estimated timeline for completion of these major Valencia projects varies: the Parque Central first phase is ongoing with completion expected by 2027-2028, metro Line 10 is already operational with extensions planned through 2030, and the port expansion is a medium-term project spanning the late 2020s.

The typical price impact on nearby Valencia properties is around 5% to 10% uplift when infrastructure projects are announced, with an additional 10% to 15% increase once projects near completion, based on patterns observed near previous metro stations and urban regeneration zones.

Sources and methodology: we identified infrastructure impacts using ADIF's Canal de Acceso project page, FGV's expansion documentation, and Valenciaport's official tender notes. We translated project timelines into neighborhood-level demand signals. Our price impact estimates draw from historical metro station opening effects.
statistics infographics real estate market Valencia

We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Spain. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.

What do locals and insiders say the market feels like in Valencia?

Do people think homes are overpriced in Valencia in 2026?

As of early 2026, the general sentiment among Valencia locals and market insiders is that homes feel overpriced relative to local salaries, but many outside buyers (especially from Northern Europe) still consider Valencia reasonably affordable compared to their home markets or Madrid and Barcelona.

When arguing that Valencia homes are overpriced, locals typically point to the 14% price jump in 2025 alone, rents that have increased 12% year-over-year, and the fact that median wages in Valencia have not kept pace with housing costs, making first-time buying increasingly difficult for Spanish residents.

Those who believe Valencia prices are fair counter that the city offers Mediterranean lifestyle, year-round sunshine, and international connectivity at prices still 30% to 40% below Barcelona, and that strong foreign demand plus limited supply justify current valuations.

The price-to-income ratio in Valencia has stretched considerably: while Spain's national average is around 7 to 8 years of household income to buy a median home, Valencia city has moved toward 9 to 10 years, approaching levels seen in Madrid and reflecting the rapid price acceleration outpacing local wages.

Sources and methodology: we based sentiment analysis on affordability pressure indicators from Tinsa price tracking, idealista rent indexes, and CaixaBank Research affordability analysis. We validated with local agent interviews and our own survey data. Our price-to-income calculations use INE household income statistics.

What are common buyer mistakes people regret in Valencia right now?

The most frequently cited buyer mistake in Valencia is underestimating building quality in older blocks, where many 1960s-1980s constructions lack elevators, have poor noise insulation, suffer from humidity issues, and have outdated electrical systems that require expensive upgrades after purchase.

The second most common buyer mistake in Valencia is not checking the "tourism pressure" street by street in coastal and central zones like Ciutat Vella or El Cabanyal, where short-term rental activity can dramatically change day-to-day livability through noise, party tourists, and rotating neighbors.

If you want to go deeper, you can check our list of risks and pitfalls people face when buying property in Valencia.

It's because of these mistakes that we have decided to build our pack covering the property buying process in Valencia.

Sources and methodology: we compiled buyer regret patterns from Colegio Notarial de Valencia transaction guidance, Colegio de Registradores reports, and local real estate attorney feedback. We validated with our own buyer survey responses. Our analysis focuses on Valencia-specific friction points rather than generic Spain issues.

Get the full checklist for your due diligence in Valencia

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real estate trends Valencia

How easy is it for foreigners to buy in Valencia in 2026?

Do foreigners face extra challenges in Valencia right now?

The estimated overall difficulty level for foreigners buying property in Valencia compared to locals is moderate: the legal process is straightforward (Spain allows full foreign ownership), but administrative paperwork, banking requirements, and competition in fast-moving segments create meaningful friction.

Foreign buyers in Valencia face no major legal restrictions, but they must obtain a NIE (foreigner identification number) before any transaction, provide enhanced proof-of-funds documentation for anti-money-laundering compliance, and note that Spain's property-linked Golden Visa ended in April 2025, so buying no longer provides a residency path.

The most common practical challenges foreigners encounter in Valencia specifically include NIE appointment delays (which can take weeks in peak seasons), the need to open a Spanish bank account with non-resident documentation, competing against locals for the fastest-selling renovated apartments in Ruzafa or L'Eixample, and navigating a notary process conducted primarily in Spanish with limited English-speaking staff outside major firms.

We will tell you more in our blog article about foreigner property ownership in Valencia.

Sources and methodology: we anchored foreigner buying processes in KPMG's Golden Visa cancellation guidance, Colegio Notarial de Valencia foreign buyer data, and idealista foreign demand reports. We validated with interviews from Valencia-based international real estate lawyers. Our friction analysis reflects 2026 administrative realities.

Do banks lend to foreigners in Valencia in 2026?

As of early 2026, mortgage financing is available for foreign buyers in Valencia from major Spanish banks including Santander, BBVA, CaixaBank, and Sabadell, all of which have specific non-resident mortgage products marketed to international purchasers.

Foreign buyers in Valencia can typically expect loan-to-value ratios of 60% to 70% (meaning you need a 30% to 40% down payment), with interest rates currently around 3% to 4% for fixed-rate products, slightly higher than rates offered to Spanish residents.

Banks in Valencia typically require foreign mortgage applicants to provide proof of income (tax returns or employment contracts from their home country), bank statements showing savings history, a valid NIE, a property valuation from an approved appraiser, and sometimes evidence of existing assets or a Spanish bank account with regular deposits.

You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Spain.

Sources and methodology: we verified foreign mortgage availability through Banco Santander's non-resident mortgage page, BBVA and CaixaBank product listings, and CaixaBank Research financing analysis. We cross-checked LTV ranges with mortgage broker feedback. Our documentation requirements reflect current bank underwriting standards.
infographics rental yields citiesValencia

We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Spain versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.

How risky is buying in Valencia compared to other nearby markets?

Is Valencia more volatile than nearby places in 2026?

As of early 2026, Valencia's price volatility is estimated to be higher than "sleepier" nearby towns like Castellon or inland Valencian Community municipalities, but lower than ultra-tourist markets like Ibiza or parts of the Costa Blanca where seasonal demand swings are extreme.

Over the past decade, Valencia has experienced more pronounced price swings than comparable Spanish cities: it dropped harder during the 2008-2013 crisis (falling around 40% from peak) but has also recovered faster since 2020, with 14% annual growth in 2025 far exceeding the 8% to 10% seen in more stable markets like Zaragoza or Bilbao.

If you want to go into more details, we also have a blog article detailing the updated housing prices in Valencia.

Sources and methodology: we compared volatility using Tinsa's Valencia price series, INE's House Price Index, and Eurostat EU housing benchmarks. We measured volatility as magnitude and speed of price moves relative to national averages. Our risk assessment accounts for Valencia's specific demand drivers.

Is Valencia resilient during downturns historically?

Valencia's historical resilience during economic downturns has been moderate: the city followed Spain's national cycle closely, with prices falling 35% to 40% from 2008 to 2013 and taking until approximately 2021-2022 to recover to pre-crisis nominal levels in most districts.

During the 2008-2014 Spanish property crisis, Valencia property prices dropped roughly 37% on average, and the recovery took about 8 to 10 years to return to pre-crisis peaks, though inflation-adjusted values took even longer to fully recover.

The property types and neighborhoods in Valencia that historically held value best during downturns are prime central locations like L'Eixample and El Pla del Real (where scarcity and wealthy local buyers provided a floor), quality buildings with elevators and parking, and properties near key amenities like the Turia Gardens or major universities.

Sources and methodology: we anchored historical resilience analysis in Banco de Espana housing market data, INE price index history, and academic research on the 2008 Spanish crisis. We identified resilient segments through district-level price recovery patterns. Our analysis covers the full 2008-2024 cycle.

Get to know the market before you buy a property in Valencia

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real estate market Valencia

How strong is rental demand behind the scenes in Valencia in 2026?

Is long-term rental demand growing in Valencia in 2026?

As of early 2026, long-term rental demand in Valencia is growing strongly, with asking rents up around 12% year-over-year and vacancy rates estimated at just 3%, indicating a very tight market where well-priced units rent quickly.

The tenant demographics driving long-term rental demand in Valencia include international professionals and digital nomads attracted by the city's lifestyle and lower costs versus Barcelona, university students (Valencia has multiple major universities), young Spanish workers priced out of buying, and growing foreign resident communities from the Netherlands, Germany, and Latin America.

The neighborhoods in Valencia with the strongest long-term rental demand right now are Ruzafa (hipster appeal and central location), Ciutat Vella (tourists and expats), the university zone around Blasco Ibanez, Benimaclet (affordable and young), and L'Eixample (professional tenants seeking quality).

You might want to check our latest analysis about rental yields in Valencia.

Sources and methodology: we tracked rental demand using idealista's Valencia rent index, SERPAVI official rent reference data, and INE population growth statistics. We validated vacancy estimates with property manager surveys. Our demographic breakdown reflects current tenant profiles from local agencies.

Is short-term rental demand growing in Valencia in 2026?

Valencia has implemented significant regulatory changes affecting short-term rentals: the city approved draft rules in January 2025 limiting tourist apartments to just 2% of residential units per district, and Spain's national law from April 2025 now requires community of owners approval (three-fifths majority) for any new tourist rental in multi-unit buildings.

As of early 2026, short-term rental demand from tourists remains strong seasonally (Valencia attracts over 2 million overnight visitors annually), but the regulatory tightening is constraining supply growth, creating a bifurcated market where licensed properties command premiums while unlicensed operators face removal from platforms.

The estimated average occupancy rate for compliant short-term rentals in Valencia is around 65% to 75% annually, with summer months reaching 85%+ and winter dropping to 50% to 60%, though properties in prime locations like Ciutat Vella or near the beach perform above these averages.

The guest demographics driving short-term rental demand in Valencia include European weekend tourists (especially from the UK, France, and Germany), families visiting for festivals like Las Fallas, business travelers attending conferences and trade fairs, and a growing segment of digital nomads booking month-long stays.

By the way, we also have a blog article detailing whether owning an Airbnb rental is profitable in Valencia.

Sources and methodology: we based regulatory analysis on Bird & Bird's Spanish rental law summary, INE's non-hotel accommodation survey, and idealista's NRA registry coverage. We validated occupancy with local property management data. Our demand segmentation uses tourism board visitor statistics.
infographics comparison property prices Valencia

We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Spain compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.

What are the realistic short-term and long-term projections for Valencia in 2026?

What's the 12-month outlook for demand in Valencia in 2026?

As of early 2026, the estimated 12-month demand outlook for residential property in Valencia is positive but moderating, with continued buyer interest supported by improving mortgage conditions and population growth, though the exceptional 14% to 20% annual gains of 2025 are unlikely to repeat.

The key factors most likely to influence Valencia demand over the next 12 months include European Central Bank interest rate decisions (further cuts would boost affordability), Spain's continued economic outperformance versus the EU average, the regulatory environment for short-term rentals (which affects investor appetite), and whether foreign buyer flows remain strong post-Golden Visa.

The forecasted price movement for Valencia over the next 12 months is an estimated 4% to 7% increase, representing a significant slowdown from 2025's exceptional growth as the market adjusts to higher price levels and affordability constraints begin to bite for local buyers.

By the way, we also have an update regarding price forecasts in Spain.

Sources and methodology: we built our 12-month outlook using CaixaBank Research's housing cycle analysis, Tinsa's Valencia momentum indicators, and Banco de Espana's BExplora tool. We applied national driver analysis to Valencia's specific conditions. Our price forecast reflects consensus analyst expectations.

What's the 3 to 5 year outlook for housing in Valencia in 2026?

As of early 2026, the estimated 3 to 5 year outlook for Valencia housing prices and demand is positive with periodic pauses, supported by structural factors like ongoing infrastructure investment, population growth, and persistent supply constraints that should sustain price appreciation averaging 3% to 5% annually.

The major development projects expected to shape Valencia over the next 3 to 5 years include completion of the Parque Central urban transformation (creating a major new green space and transport hub), metro network extensions to underserved districts, the Port of Valencia northern expansion (adding logistics jobs), and continued implementation of the Cabanyal regeneration program.

The single biggest uncertainty that could alter Valencia's 3 to 5 year outlook is a sharp rise in interest rates or credit tightening that would reduce mortgage availability, which would hit Valencia harder than more established markets because much of its recent growth has been driven by newly accessible financing for first-time and foreign buyers.

Sources and methodology: we based medium-term projections on ADIF infrastructure timelines, INE population projections, and CaixaBank Research structural analysis. We identified key uncertainties through central bank scenario modeling. Our outlook accounts for Valencia's specific demand drivers and supply constraints.

Are demographics or other trends pushing prices up in Valencia in 2026?

As of early 2026, demographic trends are having a strong positive impact on Valencia housing prices, with the city's population growing by nearly 20,000 people in 2025 alone to surpass 840,000 residents, creating sustained housing demand that outpaces new construction.

The specific demographic shifts most affecting Valencia prices include net domestic migration from Madrid and Barcelona (attracted by relative affordability and lifestyle), growing foreign resident communities (especially from the EU, Latin America, and North Africa), and household formation among millennials who delayed buying during the post-2008 crisis years.

Beyond demographics, the non-demographic trends pushing Valencia prices include remote work adoption (allowing people to live in Valencia while earning foreign salaries), lifestyle migration by Northern Europeans seeking Mediterranean climate, strong rental yields (around 5% to 7%) attracting investors, and the city's rising international profile following events like the America's Cup.

These demographic and trend-driven price pressures in Valencia are expected to continue for at least 3 to 5 years because population inflows show no sign of reversing, new housing supply remains constrained by land scarcity and construction costs, and Spain's broader supply shortage means Valencia will keep absorbing demand that cannot be met elsewhere.

Sources and methodology: we anchored demographic analysis in INE municipal population data, Valencia City padron statistics, and Cadena SER demographic reporting. We validated foreign resident growth with notary transaction data. Our trend analysis incorporates lifestyle and work pattern shifts.

What scenario would cause a downturn in Valencia in 2026?

As of early 2026, the most likely scenario that could trigger a housing downturn in Valencia would be a financing shock where mortgage rates rise sharply again (to 5%+ fixed) or banks significantly tighten lending criteria for non-residents, which would reduce demand fastest in higher-priced segments and among foreign buyers.

Early warning signs that a Valencia downturn is beginning would include a sharp increase in days-on-market (beyond 120 days average), widening ask-versus-close gaps (above 10%), rising inventory levels (especially of new listings from developers), and a noticeable drop in foreign buyer transaction share in notary statistics.

Based on historical patterns from the 2008-2013 crisis, a potential downturn in Valencia could realistically see prices fall 15% to 25% from peak over 2 to 3 years in a moderate recession scenario, though today's lower household leverage and tighter lending standards make a 40% crash like 2008 much less likely.

Sources and methodology: we based downturn scenarios on Banco de Espana cycle risk framing, CaixaBank Research stress testing, and historical 2008 crisis data from INE. We identified early warning indicators from market monitoring frameworks. Our severity estimates reflect current leverage and regulatory conditions versus 2008.

Make a profitable investment in Valencia

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buying property foreigner Valencia

What sources have we used to write this blog article?

Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Valencia, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can ... and we don't throw out numbers at random.

We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.

Source Why it's authoritative How we used it
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (INE) It's Spain's official statistics office and the numbers are the reference set used by media and institutions. We use it to ground demand with registered home-sales volumes. We cross-check market "heat" claims against what's actually being recorded in registries.
Banco de Espana (BExplora) It's Spain's central bank, so its housing commentary is meant to be sober and data-led. We use it to frame the housing cycle (expansion vs slowdown) using macro plus housing signals. We triangulate this with private indexes so we're not relying on one lens.
Tinsa Tinsa is a long-running Spanish valuation firm with a transparent index tradition. We use it as a "valuation-style" view of prices (not just asking prices). We triangulate it with portal indexes to bracket a realistic price range.
idealista It's Spain's largest property portal and publishes a consistent methodology for its indexes. We use it to track asking-price momentum and neighborhood-level granularity. We explicitly treat it as "offer-side" then reconcile it with valuation and notary sources.
Colegio Notarial de Valencia Notaries are literally at completion, so they see deals at the moment of signing. We use it to quantify foreign demand in the Valencia province context. We cross-check it with Registradores summaries to avoid single-source bias.
Colegio de Registradores Property registrars compile transaction and mortgage stats straight from the registry system. We use it to benchmark foreign-buyer share and mortgage activity at national and regional level. We triangulate it with Notariado data where we need province detail.
CaixaBank Research It's a major bank research unit that cites data and is closely followed by institutions. We use it for near-term outlook drivers (rates, household income, population). We treat it as a macro "driver map" and then localize to Valencia using city indicators.
Ayuntamiento de Valencia It's the city government publishing regeneration budgets and scope. We use it to support gentrification claims with an official program. We connect it to the specific micro-areas most affected by regeneration investment.
ADIF ADIF is the state rail infrastructure manager, so project scope and budgets are official. We use it to identify infrastructure-driven demand zones near major works. We translate project timelines into "which neighborhoods benefit most" in 2026.
FGV / Metrovalencia It's the official operator for Metrovalencia expansions. We use it to spot mobility upgrades that can change neighborhood desirability. We pair it with neighborhood examples where transit access is a key price driver.
Eurostat It's the EU's official statistics provider, making cross-country comparisons consistent. We use it to benchmark Spain's cycle versus the EU and euro area. We use it to avoid "local hype" by checking where Spain sits in the broader cycle.