Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Italy Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Tuscany's property market is included in our pack
What will happen in Tuscany’s real estate market? Will prices go up or down? Is Florence still a hotspot for foreign investors? How is Italy’s government impacting real estate policies and taxes in 2025?
We’re constantly asked these questions because we’re deeply involved in this market. Through our work with notaries, real estate agents, and clients who buy properties in Tuscany, we’ve gained firsthand insights.
That’s why we created this article: to provide clear answers, insightful analysis, and a well-rounded perspective on market predictions and forecasts.
Our goal is simple: to ensure you feel informed and confident about the market without needing to look elsewhere. If you think we missed the mark or could do better, we’d love to hear your thoughts. Feel free to message us with your feedback or comments, and we’ll work hard to improve this content for you.
1) More American buyers will invest in Tuscany as the dollar strengthens against the euro, making it more appealing
The dollar is getting stronger against the euro, making Tuscany a hot spot for American buyers.
According to gate-away.com, inquiries from U.S. investors for homes in Tuscany have skyrocketed by 223% since 2019. This surge is closely tied to the favorable exchange rate.
American buyers are drawn to Tuscany's mix of historic charm and modern luxury. Broker Immobiliare notes a particular interest in both historic and modern villas, thanks to the region's stunning landscapes and rich cultural heritage.
With the dollar's strength, the dream of owning a Tuscan villa is becoming more attainable for Americans. The region's appeal lies not just in its beauty but also in its lifestyle, which is a big draw for those looking to invest.
Many American buyers are looking for properties that offer a blend of tradition and modernity. The strong dollar is making these dream homes more accessible, encouraging more U.S. investors to consider Tuscany.
As the dollar continues to hold its ground, the trend of American interest in Tuscany is expected to grow, making it a prime time for potential buyers to explore their options.
Sources: Benoit Properties, Broker Immobiliare
2) Vacation property profits in tourist hotspots will drop due to stricter short-term rental rules
Stricter short-term rental regulations are shaking up the vacation property market in popular tourist spots like Tuscany.
In Tuscany, if you're a non-resident property owner, you're now limited to renting out your place for just 90 days a year. This cap means fewer rental days and, naturally, less income. Plus, you have to jump through hoops like registering your property and snagging a Regional Identification Code, which adds to your costs.
When you look at places like Barcelona and Amsterdam, you see a pattern. Stricter rules have slashed short-term rental listings, cutting into property owners' profits. In Barcelona, for instance, more oversight and minimum stay rules have made it tougher to keep properties profitable.
Property owners are feeling the pinch. Surveys show that these regulations are eating into their rental income, and many are worried about their bottom line. Reports also highlight a drop in listings on platforms like Airbnb, which is a direct hit to profitability.
And if you think you can sidestep these rules, think again. In Italy, ignoring the regulations could land you with fines up to 5,000 euros. That's a hefty financial blow that can really hurt your earnings.
Sources: Idealista, Enso Connect, BNB Calc
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Italy compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
3) Chinese investors will become more interested in Tuscany’s real estate, especially in culturally rich areas
Chinese investors are increasingly eyeing Tuscany's real estate, especially in areas rich in cultural heritage.
In recent years, China's outbound investment has surged, making it a major player in global real estate. This trend is expected to continue, with Chinese investors seeking international opportunities. Tuscany, with its blend of history and beauty, is a prime target.
Chinese tourists are flocking to Italy, drawn by its cultural treasures. Their spending in culturally significant areas is high, and Tuscany's charm is undeniable. This tourist interest often translates into real estate investments, as investors look for properties with historical allure.
The historical ties between Italy and China have strengthened business relations, paving the way for real estate investments. Tuscany's UNESCO-listed sites and historic buildings are exactly what Chinese investors are after. The region's commitment to preserving its cultural heritage only adds to its appeal.
Chinese investors are not just looking for any property; they want locations with a story. Tuscany's rich history and cultural significance make it a top choice. The local government's efforts to promote and protect these sites further enhance its attractiveness.
With a growing interest in international real estate, Chinese investors are likely to focus on Tuscany for its unique blend of culture and opportunity. The region's historical charm and strategic initiatives make it a compelling option.
Sources: Studentsville, China Briefing, CGTN
4) Yields on Tuscany's luxury villas will drop as maintenance costs rise and demand shifts to sustainable living options
Tuscany's luxury villa market is feeling the pinch as maintenance costs rise.
With energy prices climbing, keeping these stunning properties in top shape is becoming more expensive. This isn't just about preserving the beauty of Tuscany's landscapes; it's about meeting new, stricter environmental regulations. These rules mean that luxury villas must now be energy-efficient and sustainable, which often requires significant investment in retrofitting.
There's a shift happening in what buyers want. Younger, eco-conscious buyers are on the hunt for homes that are not just luxurious but also sustainable. This trend is pushing up the demand for properties that are both energy-efficient and environmentally friendly.
Government incentives are nudging property owners towards eco-friendly upgrades, but these upgrades aren't cheap. The costs often trickle down to buyers, which can make traditional luxury villas less appealing in terms of rental yields.
As sustainable architecture gains traction, buyers are increasingly drawn to properties that blend luxury with sustainability. This change in demand might mean lower yields for traditional luxury villas, as the market shifts.
The buzz around sustainable living is growing, thanks to media coverage. People are more aware of the environmental impact of their housing choices, and this awareness is steering them towards sustainable options over traditional luxury villas.
With more sustainable housing options popping up in Tuscany, buyers have a wider array of choices. This increased competition could mean traditional luxury villas see a dip in yields as buyers lean towards eco-friendly and cost-effective alternatives.
Sources: Illuminem, Trevi Elite
5) Rental yields on the Versilia coast will drop due to an oversupply of vacation rentals saturating the market
The Versilia coast is seeing a drop in rental yields because there are too many vacation rentals available.
In 2024, platforms like Airbnb and Vrbo experienced a noticeable spike in vacation rental listings, leading to a crowded market. This surge in listings has made it harder for property owners to maintain high rental prices.
Local real estate reports highlight a boom in property development, with many new vacation rentals popping up. However, the demand hasn't kept pace, creating an oversupply that affects rental income.
Occupancy rates for vacation rentals in the Versilia region have taken a hit. With more properties available than guests, many rentals are left empty, reducing potential earnings for owners.
For those considering buying property here, it's crucial to understand that the market is currently saturated. This means that while there are plenty of options, the competition is fierce, and rental returns might not be as high as expected.
Investors should be aware that the current market conditions could lead to lower profits. It's a buyer's market, but with the risk of not achieving desired rental yields.
Don't buy the wrong property, in the wrong area of Tuscany
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6) Property prices in Maremma will fall due to infrastructure and connectivity challenges
The Maremma region in Tuscany is grappling with infrastructure and connectivity issues, which could lead to a drop in property prices.
Historically, Maremma has seen less investment in infrastructure compared to other Tuscan areas. This is largely due to complex bureaucracy and inefficient planning, which slow down new projects and the upkeep of existing ones.
Traveling in Maremma can be a hassle. The region's complicated transportation network involves multiple buses, metro rides, and regional trains, making journeys long and tedious. This complexity often turns off potential property buyers.
Residents aren't thrilled with the current transportation options either, which affects the region's appeal. Surveys show that dissatisfaction with transportation is a common sentiment, impacting both locals and those considering a move.
When compared to other areas, Maremma falls short in infrastructure development. For example, high-speed train lines rarely connect its Eastern and Western cities directly, making travel inconvenient and affecting tourism.
Tourism, a key part of the local economy, suffers due to these connectivity issues. This has led to declining tourism statistics, which further dampens the demand for properties in the area.
Sources: Italy Segreta, Tuscan Dream, Real Wealth
7) Demand for properties with farming potential will grow as organic farming becomes more popular
Organic farming is becoming increasingly popular, and it's driving up the demand for properties with farming potential.
In Italy, the area dedicated to organic farming has grown by 4.5% in 2023, now covering 2.5 million hectares, which is nearly 20% of the country's total agricultural land. This growth is part of a larger plan to hit 25% by 2030, aligning with the EU's Farm to Fork Strategy.
Italian consumers are more interested in organic products than ever, with spending reaching €3.8 billion in 2023, marking a 5.2% increase from last year. This shift is largely due to a growing awareness of the health and environmental benefits of organic goods.
The number of organic operators in Italy has risen to 94,441 in 2023, with more producers and processors joining the ranks. This surge suggests a keen interest in on-farm processing, which could be influencing the demand for agricultural properties.
The Italian government is also playing a role by offering incentives to support organic farming, making it an attractive option for more farmers. These measures are likely to continue boosting interest in properties with agricultural potential.
Sources: Wine News, Green Planet, Food Times
8) Property values in Chianti will rise significantly as remote workers seek a picturesque lifestyle
The Chianti region is becoming a hotspot for remote workers, and this is set to boost property values.
In Greve in Chianti, property prices hit €2,597 per square meter in November 2024, showing a steady rise. This picturesque area is drawing in more buyers, eager to enjoy its charm and tranquility.
Remote work is booming in Italy, with over seven million Italians working from home by 2021. Many are moving to scenic spots like Tuscany, which includes Chianti, driving up demand for homes.
The pandemic has shifted lifestyle choices, with people craving a better work-life balance. Tuscany's stunning landscapes and rich culture make it a top pick for remote work, attracting even more interest in the region.
Media coverage is shining a spotlight on Tuscany as an ideal remote work destination. This attention is drawing more remote workers to the area, further increasing the demand for properties.
Sources: Immobiliare.it, Statista, Visit Tuscany
We created this infographic to give you a simple idea of how much it costs to buy property in different parts of Italy. As you can see, it breaks down price ranges and property types for popular cities in the country. We hope this makes it easier to explore your options and understand the market.
9) Property prices in Val d'Orcia will rise as more international buyers seek UNESCO World Heritage sites
Properties in the Val d'Orcia are catching the eye of international buyers, especially those drawn to UNESCO World Heritage sites.
In Tuscany, there's a buzz around buying property, with 66% of all inquiries for Italian homes focused on this region. This surge is partly because of the charm of UNESCO sites like Florence and Siena, which not only attract tourists but also retirees and expats eager to live near such cultural gems.
Owning a piece of history has its perks, as properties near UNESCO sites often see a boost in demand and prices. The Val d'Orcia, with its stunning landscapes, is no exception. It's becoming a hotspot for those looking to invest in a slice of Italian paradise.
The shift to remote work has also played a role, with more people choosing to settle in serene spots like Tuscany. This has led to a noticeable uptick in interest for homes in the Val d'Orcia, as people seek out tranquil and culturally rich environments.
Real estate agents are seeing this trend firsthand, with the Val d'Orcia's unique appeal driving more inquiries. The region's beauty and cultural significance are making it a top choice for international buyers, especially those in search of vacation homes.
With Tuscany's growing media spotlight as a prime location for property investment, the Val d'Orcia is poised for a price boost, fueled by the allure of its UNESCO status and picturesque settings.
Sources: Portfolio Property, Visit Tuscany, Knight Frank
10) Property values in Florence's suburbs will rise as families look for more space and cleaner air
Families are increasingly drawn to Florence's suburbs for more space and better air quality.
In the heart of Florence, property prices have been climbing steadily. For instance, in November 2024, the average price hit €4,319 per square meter, a noticeable jump from the previous year. This upward trend is nudging families to explore more affordable options outside the city center.
Post-pandemic, there's been a clear shift in what families want: larger living spaces. Suburban areas offer this, along with the added bonus of cleaner air. In early 2023, the average home price in the Florence province was €3,086 per square meter, making it a more appealing choice for those seeking value.
Suburbs are not just about space; they promise better air quality too. Many families are prioritizing a healthier environment for their children, and suburban areas often boast lower pollution levels compared to urban centers. This makes them a magnet for those wanting a breath of fresh air.
Environmental reports consistently highlight the cleaner air in suburban areas, reinforcing their appeal. Families are increasingly aware of these benefits, driving a shift in demand towards these regions.
Sources: Immobiliare.it, Studentsville.it
11) Property values in low-lying coastal areas will drop due to coastal erosion and rising sea levels
Buying property in low-lying coastal areas like Tuscany comes with its own set of challenges.
One major issue is coastal erosion, which can drastically change the landscape by wearing away protective dune systems. These dunes are essential as they shield inland areas from storm surges and flooding. When they erode, properties become more exposed to damage during extreme weather events.
Recent studies have shown that sea level rise projections for the Mediterranean, including Tuscany, were underestimated in 2023 and 2024. This means the risk of flooding and coastal erosion is higher than previously thought, putting properties at greater risk. As a result, insurance premiums have skyrocketed, making these properties more expensive to own and less appealing to potential buyers.
The economic impact of climate change on real estate is becoming more apparent. Experts suggest that properties in low-lying coastal areas are likely to decrease in value due to the increased risks associated with climate change. This trend is supported by real estate market analyses, which show a decreased demand for such properties as buyers become more aware of the risks.
In Tuscany, the local real estate market is already feeling the pinch. Buyers are increasingly cautious, and some are even opting for properties further inland to avoid the looming threat of rising sea levels. This shift in buyer preference is reshaping the market dynamics in the region.
For those considering a purchase, it's crucial to weigh these factors carefully. While the allure of coastal living is undeniable, the potential risks and costs associated with climate change are becoming harder to ignore.
Sources: Regions4Climate, INGV, Wind Insurance Group, Atlas of Wars
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12) Siena’s rental market will grow as more students and young professionals move in
The rental market in Siena is poised for a boost as the city continues to attract more students and young professionals. One of the key factors is the increasing enrollment numbers at universities in Siena. Although specific figures for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are not available, the general trend in Italy shows a steady rise in higher education enrollment, suggesting more students are likely to seek accommodation in Siena.
Additionally, the demand for student accommodation is evident from data showing that a typical short-term rental in Siena is booked for 248 nights a year, with a median occupancy rate of 68% and an average daily rate of €107. This high demand is likely driven by both students and young professionals who are drawn to the city's vibrant atmosphere and opportunities.
Moreover, Siena's appeal to young professionals is enhanced by its urban living environment and the improvements in infrastructure and public transport. The MOTIVATE project has made the city more livable, which is attractive to those who value convenient and sustainable living. Furthermore, the trend of remote work allows more young professionals to choose desirable locations like Siena, further increasing the demand for rentals.
Sources: Airbtics, Med Urban Tools
13) Rental prices in Lucca will rise steadily as it becomes a cultural hub for international events
Lucca is seeing a steady rise in rental prices due to its growing appeal as a cultural hotspot.
One big reason for this is the influx of international events that the city is hosting. For example, the upcoming Lucca Summer Festival 2025 will feature famous bands and artists, drawing crowds from all over the world and boosting Lucca's cultural reputation.
Tourism is also on the rise. In the first five months of 2023, Lucca saw a quadrupling in bus revenue and nearly double the income from tourist taxes. This surge in visitors shows that more people are interested in Lucca as a cultural destination, which naturally increases the demand for places to stay.
Hotel occupancy rates are climbing too. By mid-July 2023, the city had collected €585,699 in tourist taxes, a clear sign that more people are visiting and staying in Lucca. This uptick in visitors is pushing up the demand for short-term rentals.
As Lucca continues to host more international events and attract tourists, the rental market is expected to grow. This makes it an exciting time for potential property buyers looking to invest in the area.
Sources: Tuscany Tips, Lucca Life, Immobiliare.it
While this article provides thoughtful analysis and insights based on credible and carefully selected sources, it is not, and should never be considered, financial advice. We put significant effort into researching, aggregating, and analyzing data to present you with an informed perspective. However, every analysis reflects subjective choices, such as the selection of sources and methodologies, and no single piece can encompass the full complexity of the market. Always conduct your own research, seek professional advice, and make decisions based on your own judgment. Any financial risks or losses remain your responsibility. Finally, please note that we are not affiliated to any of the sources provided. Our analysis remains then 100% impartial.