Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Italy Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Tuscany's property market is included in our pack
Thinking about buying property in Tuscany, or just wondering where the market is headed in 2026?
We track property prices in Tuscany closely, combining official data, portal indices, and our own research to give you a clear and honest picture.
In this article, we cover current housing prices in Tuscany, recent trends, and what to expect in the years ahead, and we update this blog post regularly to keep everything fresh.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Tuscany.
Insights
- Tuscany property prices in January 2026 average around 2,500 euros per square meter, but Florence province alone averages over 4,500 euros per square meter, nearly three times the price of Arezzo province at 1,500 euros per square meter.
- Rental yields in Tuscany's art cities like Florence and Lucca can reach 6% to 10% during high season, making short-term rentals significantly more lucrative than long-term leases in prime locations.
- Florence's tramway expansion, with Line T3 opening by late 2026, is expected to lift property values in previously underserved neighborhoods like Bagno a Ripoli and Campo di Marte by improving commute times to the city center.
- American buyers now represent about 29% of foreign property purchases in Tuscany, driven by the euro exchange rate and lifestyle appeal of the region's countryside and art cities.
- Energy-efficient properties in Tuscany are appreciating 1% to 2% faster annually than older, unrenovated homes, as buyers increasingly factor in future running costs and renovation expenses.
- Over the past ten years, Tuscany property prices have risen only about 1% in nominal terms, meaning real values (adjusted for inflation) have actually declined by roughly 14%.
- Mortgage rates in Italy currently sit around 3.3% for new loans, down from over 4% in 2023, and analysts expect further easing through 2026 as the ECB maintains rates near 2%.
- Lucca province now has the highest asking prices in Tuscany outside Florence, averaging around 3,500 euros per square meter, reflecting strong international demand for historic properties within the walled city.
What are the current property price trends in Tuscany as of 2026?
What is the average house price in Tuscany as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the average house price in Tuscany is around 240,000 euros (approximately 250,000 US dollars or 210,000 British pounds), though this figure blends expensive city apartments with more affordable countryside homes.
When you look at price per square meter, Tuscany averages roughly 2,500 euros per square meter (about 230 euros per square foot), placing it among the more expensive regions in central Italy but still well below Milan's levels.
The realistic price range that covers about 80% of property purchases in Tuscany stretches from around 120,000 euros to 450,000 euros (125,000 to 470,000 US dollars), with most transactions clustering in the 150,000 to 300,000 euro band for typical apartments and smaller houses.
How much have property prices increased in Tuscany over the past 12 months?
Property prices in Tuscany have increased by an estimated 3% to 4% over the past 12 months, with the region performing roughly in line with Italy's national average.
Across different property types in Tuscany, price increases ranged from near-flat growth in some inland areas to over 6% in Florence province, showing how location matters far more than regional averages.
The single most significant factor driving this price movement in Tuscany has been sustained demand from international buyers and second-home seekers, particularly in art cities like Florence and Lucca where supply remains tight.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Tuscany as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the three neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices in Tuscany are Novoli-San Donato in Florence (university and office demand), the Oltrarno district in Florence (historic scarcity and short-let pressure), and Lucca's Centro Storico (limited supply behind the medieval walls).
Novoli-San Donato in Florence has seen annual price growth around 7% to 8%, while Oltrarno and Lucca Centro Storico have both recorded gains of 5% to 6% year-over-year, outpacing the regional average by a significant margin.
The main demand driver behind these fast-rising prices is a combination of constrained supply in historic or well-connected locations, strong rental yields from tourism, and buyer preference for walkable neighborhoods with good transport links.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Tuscany.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Italy. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Which property types are increasing faster in value in Tuscany as of 2026?
As of early 2026, renovated and energy-efficient apartments in prime urban areas are appreciating fastest in Tuscany, followed by smaller rental-friendly units, then townhouses in commuter belts, and finally unrenovated country homes which are lagging behind.
The top-performing property type in Tuscany, renovated apartments in Florence and Lucca city centers, is appreciating at roughly 5% to 7% annually, about 2 percentage points above the regional average.
The main reason this property type is outperforming others in Tuscany is that buyers are increasingly pricing in future energy costs and renovation headaches, so move-in-ready homes in walkable locations command a premium that keeps growing.
Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
- How much do properties cost in Tuscany?
- How much should you pay for a house in Tuscany?
- How much should you pay for an apartment in Tuscany?
- How much should you pay for a villa in Tuscany?
- How much should you pay for lands in Tuscany?
What is driving property prices up or down in Tuscany as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the top three factors driving property prices in Tuscany are international lifestyle demand (especially from Americans and Northern Europeans), tourism-linked rental economics in art cities, and infrastructure improvements like Florence's expanding tramway network.
The single factor with the strongest upward pressure on Tuscany property prices is the scarcity of quality, move-in-ready homes in prime locations like Florence Centro, Lucca within the walls, and the Versilia coast, where demand consistently exceeds supply.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Tuscany here.
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What is the property price forecast for Tuscany in 2026?
How much are property prices expected to increase in Tuscany in 2026?
As of early 2026, property prices in Tuscany are expected to increase by around 3% to 5% over the full year, with the most likely outcome around 4%.
Forecasts from different analysts for Tuscany property price growth range from a conservative 2% (if economic headwinds intensify) to an optimistic 6% (if international demand surges and mortgage rates fall further).
The main assumption underlying most price increase forecasts for Tuscany is that mortgage rates will remain stable or edge slightly lower, allowing domestic buyers to stay active while foreign buyers continue to drive demand in prime areas.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Tuscany.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Tuscany in 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth in Tuscany are Novoli and Rifredi-Careggi in Florence (benefiting from university and hospital demand), Scandicci (spillover from Florence), and Pisa's Santa Maria district (central location with student demand).
Projected price growth for these top neighborhoods in Tuscany ranges from 5% to 8% for 2026, roughly double the regional average, driven by their combination of accessibility, services, and constrained supply.
The primary catalyst driving expected growth in these Tuscany neighborhoods is improved connectivity, particularly from Florence's tramway expansion and strong rental demand from students, professionals, and tourists.
One emerging neighborhood in Tuscany that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth is Bagno a Ripoli, southeast of Florence, which will gain a direct tram connection by late 2026 and currently offers lower prices than comparable Florence districts.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Tuscany.
What property types will appreciate the most in Tuscany in 2026?
As of early 2026, renovated apartments with good energy ratings in Florence, Lucca, and Pisa are expected to appreciate the most in Tuscany, outperforming other property types due to buyer preference for move-in-ready homes.
The projected appreciation for top-performing apartments in Tuscany's prime urban areas is around 5% to 7% for 2026, compared to 2% to 3% for unrenovated properties in less central locations.
The main demand trend driving appreciation for these apartments in Tuscany is the growing importance buyers place on energy efficiency, manageable maintenance, and proximity to services, especially as renovation costs remain elevated.
The property type expected to underperform in Tuscany in 2026 is unrenovated country homes (casali and rustici) requiring major work, because high renovation costs and uncertain timelines make buyers hesitant unless prices drop significantly.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Italy versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How will interest rates affect property prices in Tuscany in 2026?
As of early 2026, the current interest rate environment is supporting moderate price growth in Tuscany, as mortgage rates have eased from their 2023 peaks, making financing more accessible for domestic buyers.
The ECB's main refinancing rate currently sits at 2.15%, and mortgage rates in Italy for new home loans average around 3.3%, with expectations that rates will remain stable or edge slightly lower through 2026.
A 1% change in interest rates typically affects Tuscany property affordability significantly, with a 1 percentage point drop in mortgage rates increasing a buyer's purchasing power by roughly 10%, which tends to translate into upward price pressure in popular areas.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Italy.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Tuscany in 2026?
As of early 2026, the three biggest risks for property prices in Tuscany are an affordability shock if mortgage rates rise unexpectedly, tighter regulations on short-term rentals reducing investor demand in tourist areas, and a broader economic slowdown weakening job security and buyer confidence.
The single risk with the highest probability of materializing in Tuscany is stricter short-term rental regulation, as several Italian cities have already implemented new rules requiring registration codes and limiting remote check-ins, which could reduce rental yields in prime tourism areas.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Tuscany.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Tuscany in 2026?
As of early 2026, it is generally a good time to buy a rental property in Tuscany if you target high-demand urban areas like Florence, Lucca, or Pisa, where rental yields remain strong and vacancy rates are low.
The strongest argument in favor of buying a rental property now in Tuscany is that mortgage rates have stabilized at manageable levels, prime locations have limited supply, and tourism-driven rental demand shows no sign of weakening in the region's art cities.
The strongest argument for waiting before buying a rental property in Tuscany is that short-term rental regulations may tighten further, potentially reducing yields in tourist hotspots, and some analysts believe prices could soften slightly if economic growth disappoints.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Tuscany.
You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Tuscany.
Buying real estate in Tuscany can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Where will property prices be in 5 years in Tuscany?
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Tuscany as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Tuscany over the next 5 years is expected to reach 15% to 25%, with a base-case scenario around 20%.
The range of 5-year forecasts for Tuscany spans from a conservative 10% (if economic conditions disappoint) to an optimistic 30% to 35% (if tourism booms and rates fall further), reflecting meaningful uncertainty over a half-decade horizon.
The projected average annual appreciation rate for Tuscany property over the next 5 years is roughly 3% to 4.5% per year, consistent with moderate growth rather than a speculative boom.
The key assumption most forecasters rely on for their 5-year Tuscany property price predictions is that Italy's economy will grow slowly but steadily, mortgage rates will remain in the 2.5% to 3.5% range, and international demand for Tuscan lifestyle properties will persist.
Which areas in Tuscany will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The top three areas in Tuscany expected to have the best price growth over the next 5 years are the Florence metropolitan corridor (including Novoli, Rifredi, and spillover towns like Scandicci and Sesto Fiorentino), Lucca's historic center and close-in districts, and select Pisa neighborhoods near the university and Cisanello hospital.
Projected 5-year cumulative price growth for these top-performing areas in Tuscany ranges from 25% to 40%, significantly above the regional average, driven by their combination of jobs, accessibility, and lifestyle appeal.
This forecast is broadly consistent with our shorter-term predictions but amplifies the gap between prime and secondary locations, because infrastructure benefits compound over time and scarcity premiums tend to grow in the best-connected areas.
The currently undervalued area in Tuscany with the best potential for outperformance over 5 years is Sesto Fiorentino, which offers lower entry prices than Florence proper but will benefit from planned tramway extensions and its proximity to the airport and university research facilities.
What property type will give the best return in Tuscany over 5 years as of 2026?
As of early 2026, good-condition apartments in high-demand cities like Florence, Lucca, and Pisa are expected to give the best total return over 5 years in Tuscany, combining steady appreciation with reliable rental income.
The projected 5-year total return for these top-performing apartments in Tuscany, including both price appreciation and rental income, is estimated at 35% to 50%, assuming typical gross yields of 4% to 5% annually plus capital growth of 20% to 25%.
The main structural trend favoring apartments in Tuscany over the next 5 years is the combination of constrained supply in historic centers, growing preference for walkable urban living, and the financing advantage that smaller, more liquid assets have when mortgage rates are not ultra-low.
The property type offering the best balance of return and lower risk over 5 years in Tuscany is townhouses in well-connected commuter towns like Scandicci or Empoli, which offer more space than city apartments at lower entry prices while still benefiting from Florence's economic gravity.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Tuscany over 5 years?
The top three major infrastructure projects expected to impact Tuscany property prices over the next 5 years are Florence's tramway expansion (Lines T3 and T4, connecting southeast and northwest districts), rail upgrades improving commuter services to surrounding towns, and ongoing airport improvements at Florence Peretola.
Properties near completed infrastructure projects in Tuscany typically command a price premium of 5% to 15% compared to similar homes further from transit stops, with the effect most pronounced for areas that gain significant time savings in commuting to city centers.
The specific neighborhoods that will benefit most from these infrastructure developments in Tuscany are Bagno a Ripoli and Campo di Marte (from tramway Line T3), Campi Bisenzio and Piagge (from tramway Line T4), and Sesto Fiorentino (from planned tramway extensions and rail improvements).
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Tuscany in 5 years?
Tuscany's population growth rate is essentially flat (near 0% annually), but property values will still be supported over the next 5 years by internal migration toward Florence, lifestyle-driven inflows from other Italian regions, and continued international second-home demand.
The demographic shift that will have the strongest influence on Tuscany property demand is the aging population, which is expected to increase demand for smaller, accessible apartments in serviced urban areas while reducing demand for isolated rural properties requiring significant upkeep.
Migration patterns affecting Tuscany property values over 5 years include continued domestic migration from southern Italy toward Florence's job market, plus sustained international demand (especially from Americans, Germans, and British buyers) for lifestyle properties in art cities and the Chianti-Val d'Orcia countryside.
The property types and areas that will benefit most from these demographic trends in Tuscany are compact apartments in Florence, Lucca, and Pisa (appealing to both young professionals and downsizing retirees) and turnkey country homes in accessible locations within 30 minutes of a major town.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Italy compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Tuscany?
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Tuscany as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Tuscany over the next 10 years is expected to reach 30% to 55%, with significant variation between prime locations and weaker inland markets.
The range of 10-year forecasts for Tuscany spans from a conservative 20% (essentially inflation-matching returns in less desirable areas) to an optimistic 70% or more in the best Florence and coastal locations, reflecting the region's highly segmented market.
The projected average annual appreciation rate for Tuscany property over the next 10 years is roughly 2.7% to 4.5% per year, consistent with Italy's long-term historical pattern of slow but positive nominal growth.
The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year property price predictions for Tuscany is the future path of interest rates and Italy's broader economic trajectory, since both directly affect buyer affordability and domestic demand over such a long horizon.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Tuscany?
The top three long-term economic factors that will shape Tuscany property prices over the next decade are Italy's productivity and income growth path (which determines local buyer purchasing power), the interest rate regime (which affects mortgage affordability), and tourism flows (which underpin rental demand in Tuscany's art cities and countryside).
The single long-term economic factor that will have the most positive impact on Tuscany property values is sustained global demand for lifestyle and second-home properties, which provides a floor under prime locations even when domestic demand is weak.
The single long-term economic factor that poses the greatest structural risk to Tuscany property values is Italy's demographic decline and slow productivity growth, which could limit income growth for domestic buyers and reduce demand in non-prime locations.
You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Tuscany.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Tuscany, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can, and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why it's authoritative | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| Agenzia delle Entrate (OMI) | Italy's official property market observatory run by the national tax authority. | We used it to ground neighborhood-level price ranges by zone and property type. It serves as our reality check against portal asking prices. |
| OMI Rapporto Immobiliare 2025 | The flagship annual report built from administrative transaction and registry data. | We used it to anchor transaction volumes and market structure. It helps us avoid relying only on advertised prices. |
| ISTAT House Price Index | Italy's official national statistics institute and reference for price indices. | We used it to benchmark national price growth trends. We calibrated Tuscany estimates to match this trend backbone. |
| Eurostat Housing Price Statistics | The EU's harmonized dataset for cross-country housing price comparisons. | We used it to check whether Italy and Tuscany are moving faster or slower than the euro area average. |
| Bank of Italy Financial Stability Report | The Italian central bank's authoritative risk view on credit, households, and housing. | We used it to interpret whether price growth is sustainable or risky. It frames our downside risk scenarios. |
| Bank of Italy Monetary Statistics | The official source for Italian mortgage cost indicators including fees. | We used it to quantify how financing conditions affect buyer budgets. It translates rate changes into affordability impacts. |
| ECB Data Portal (MIR) | The primary European dataset for bank lending rates by country. | We used it to cross-check mortgage rate trends and timing. It avoids relying on media summaries. |
| idealista Tuscany Index | A large property portal with consistent methodology and historical data. | We used it for timely market signals and province-level differences. It shows asking-price momentum. |
| Immobiliare.it Tuscany Data | One of Italy's biggest portals with transparent rolling time series. | We used it to triangulate Tuscany price levels against idealista. Averaging two portals reduces single-index bias. |
| Scenari Immobiliari | A long-running Italian real estate research institute cited by institutions and media. | We used it as an analyst consensus input for 2026 national price growth. We then adjusted Tuscany based on its specific demand profile. |
| Regione Toscana Tramvia | The regional government's official infrastructure information portal. | We used it to identify corridors likely to gain accessibility value. These connect to specific Florence neighborhoods. |
| Comune di Firenze Tramvia | The city's official channel for tram system updates and procedures. | We used it to confirm what is actually in the pipeline. It translates announced projects into realistic timing assumptions. |
| RFI Rail Projects | Italy's rail infrastructure manager publishing planned works and upgrades. | We used it to frame medium-term accessibility improvements in Tuscany. It feeds into our infrastructure uplift forecasts. |
| ISTAT Demo Population | ISTAT's official demographic portal for resident population baselines. | We used it to ground the demand side with official household counts. Qualitative demand is layered in separately. |
| ISTAT Population Projections | ISTAT's forward-looking demographic scenario tool with transparent assumptions. | We used it for the 10-year structural demand view. It captures aging and household formation as slow-moving pressures. |
| OECD Economic Outlook Italy | A top-tier international macro forecast source with clear modeling. | We used it to anchor Italy's growth and income assumptions behind housing demand. It stress-tests our scenarios. |
| Bank of Italy Economic Bulletin | The central bank's macro view directly relevant for jobs, credit, and confidence. | We used it to assess the macro tailwinds or headwinds for 2026. It maps macro paths to likely housing demand. |
| ENAC Airport Master Plans | The national civil aviation authority defining the framework for airport expansions. | We used it as the official framework for airport development impacts. Local press serves only as secondary context. |
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If you want to go deeper, you can read the following: