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Poland's property market is entering 2026 with strong momentum, despite moderating from the exceptional growth rates seen in previous years.
As of September 2025, average apartment prices in Poland's major cities range from PLN 14,000–18,000 per square meter for new properties, with Warsaw and Kraków commanding premium rates. The market has experienced remarkable growth of 14.4% over the past 12 months, though experts predict this will moderate to 3-5% annually by 2026. Cities like Wrocław and the Tri-City region are expected to lead price growth with potential increases of up to 10% per year.
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Poland's property prices are forecast to grow 3-5% annually through 2026, with Wrocław and Tri-City leading at up to 10% growth.
Mortgage rate reductions and sustained urban demand will drive market momentum, though supply constraints remain a key factor.
| City | Current Price (PLN/m²) | 2026 Growth Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Warsaw | 17,900-18,000 | 3-5% annually |
| Kraków | 15,277-20,139 | 3-5% annually |
| Wrocław | 13,404 (7-city avg) | Up to 10% annually |
| Tri-City | 13,404 (7-city avg) | Up to 10% annually |
| National Average | 13,404-14,265 | 3-5% annually |
What's the average price per square meter for apartments and houses in Poland right now, and how has it changed in the last 12 months?
As of September 2025, Poland's residential property market shows significant regional variation in pricing.
New apartments in Warsaw cost between PLN 17,900–18,000 per square meter, while existing apartments range from PLN 16,000–18,000 per square meter. Kraków follows closely with prices spanning PLN 15,277–20,139 per square meter depending on the specific location and property type.
The national average across seven major cities stands at PLN 13,404 per square meter for existing apartments and PLN 14,265 for new constructions. For houses, construction costs currently range from PLN 5,550–6,000 per square meter nationwide, reaching PLN 6,200 or higher in the Warsaw metropolitan area.
Over the past 12 months, Poland has experienced robust property price growth of 14.4% nationally. Wrocław led this growth with an 11.2% increase, while the Tri-City region (Gdańsk, Gdynia, Sopot) saw 11.4% growth. Warsaw and Kraków experienced more modest increases, with some central districts even showing slight declines due to market saturation.
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Which Polish cities are expected to see the highest growth in property prices by 2026, and what percentage increase is forecasted for each?
Wrocław and the Tri-City region are positioned to lead Poland's property price growth through 2026.
| City/Region | 2025-2026 Forecasted Annual Growth | Key Growth Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Wrocław | Up to 10% | Strong employment growth, tech sector expansion |
| Tri-City (Gdańsk/Gdynia/Sopot) | Up to 10% | Port development, limited coastal supply |
| Kraków | 3-5% | Market stabilization after rapid growth |
| Warsaw | 3-5% (some districts flat) | Central areas reaching saturation levels |
| Łódź | 3-5% | Urban regeneration projects |
| Poznań | 3-5% | Steady economic development |
| Katowice region | 2-4% | Industrial transformation ongoing |
These forecasts reflect supply constraints in coastal areas and strong economic fundamentals in emerging tech hubs. Wrocław benefits from its position as a major business services center, while the Tri-City region faces geographical limitations on new development.
What are the official forecasts from banks or government agencies for nationwide property price growth in Poland up to 2026?
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) and leading commercial banks project continued but moderating price growth through 2026.
Official forecasts indicate 8% growth for 2025, followed by stabilization around 3-5% annual increases in 2026. However, some analysts predict up to 10% growth in supply-constrained cities like Wrocław and the Tri-City region, where demand significantly outpaces new construction.
Government agencies emphasize that these projections assume stable macroeconomic conditions and gradual mortgage rate relief. The Polish Development Fund supports housing initiatives that could add 40,000 social and municipal housing units annually through 2030, which may help moderate price pressures in the medium term.
Bank economists point to Poland's persistent housing deficit relative to EU averages as a fundamental driver supporting continued price appreciation. The country remains well below the European average for dwellings per capita, creating sustained upward pressure on prices despite increased construction activity.
How much impact will mortgage interest rates and financing conditions have on property prices in Poland by 2026?
Mortgage interest rates will play a crucial role in shaping Poland's property market trajectory through 2026.
Current mortgage rates stand at 5.25%, among the highest in the European Union, which has dampened affordability and slowed buyer demand. Financial analysts anticipate a decrease of approximately 100 basis points by the end of 2025, potentially bringing rates down to around 4.25%.
Lower mortgage rates are expected to restore robust market momentum by 2026, as improved affordability will bring more buyers into the market. This increased demand, combined with existing supply constraints, will likely contribute to upward price pressure.
New buyer assistance programs launched by the government are also expected to support demand. These financing improvements, combined with wage growth and low unemployment rates, should create favorable conditions for sustained property price appreciation through 2026.
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What's the projected demand for residential property in major cities like Warsaw, Kraków, Gdańsk, and Wrocław over the next two years?
Strong residential demand is expected to persist across Poland's major urban centers through 2026.
Warsaw continues to attract significant migration from smaller Polish cities and neighboring countries, driven by employment opportunities in finance, technology, and business services. The capital's rental market expansion, particularly in the build-to-rent sector, supports both residential demand and investment activity.
Wrocław shows the strongest demand fundamentals among major cities, benefiting from its growing reputation as a technology and business services hub. The city's relatively lower property prices compared to Warsaw and Kraków make it attractive for both residents and investors.
Gdańsk and the broader Tri-City region benefit from unique coastal positioning and limited developable land, creating sustained demand pressure. The region's economic diversification beyond traditional shipping industries supports population growth and housing demand.
Kraków maintains steady demand despite reaching higher price levels, supported by its tourism industry, university presence, and growing technology sector. However, affordability constraints may moderate demand growth compared to other major cities.
How many new housing units are expected to be built in Poland between now and 2026, and will supply outpace demand?
Poland's housing construction pipeline indicates continued supply constraints through 2026.
The government targets at least 40,000 social and municipal housing units annually through 2030, with 9,500 institutional rental units scheduled for completion in 2025. Private developers are expected to contribute additional units, though exact numbers vary by region and market conditions.
Total annual new supply is projected to hover around or slightly above current demand levels. However, Poland's cumulative housing deficit means that supply will likely not outpace demand by 2026. The country's dwelling-per-capita ratio remains below EU averages, indicating a structural shortage that supports continued price appreciation.
Regional variations are significant, with Warsaw and Kraków experiencing the most active construction, while smaller cities may see more balanced supply-demand dynamics. Construction costs and regulatory approval processes continue to constrain rapid supply increases in high-demand urban areas.
What role will foreign investment and EU funding play in shaping Poland's real estate market by 2026?
Foreign investment and EU funding will provide crucial support for Poland's real estate market development through 2026.
Strong foreign direct investment (FDI) continues flowing into Polish real estate, with international buyers now representing 30% or more of purchasers in select urban projects. This foreign capital helps stabilize developer financing and supports premium price levels in major cities.
EU funding particularly targets energy-efficient and sustainable housing developments, aligning with European climate goals. These funds help developers offset higher construction costs for green building standards, supporting new supply while maintaining competitive pricing.
The institutional investment sector benefits from EU-backed financing programs that support large-scale residential developments and build-to-rent projects. This institutional capital helps professionalize the rental market and provides stable funding for development projects.
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How are rental yields in Poland expected to evolve, and will buying to rent remain attractive compared to other EU countries?
Poland's rental yields are expected to remain competitive within the European context through 2026, though some pressure is anticipated.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Poland versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you're planning to invest there.
Current rental yields remain attractive relative to Western European markets, though they face pressure from rapid capital appreciation. Major cities like Warsaw and Kraków offer yields that compare favorably to Berlin, Vienna, or Prague, particularly in emerging neighborhoods.
The expanding build-to-rent (BTR) sector creates new investment opportunities with potentially more stable returns. Institutional-grade rental properties are becoming increasingly popular among both domestic and international investors seeking steady income streams.
Rental demand continues growing due to urbanization trends, young professional migration to major cities, and foreign worker influx. This sustained demand helps support rental rates even as property prices appreciate, though yield compression may occur if property price growth significantly outpaces rental rate increases.
What external economic factors, such as GDP growth, inflation, or unemployment, are likely to push property prices up or down in Poland by 2026?
Poland's macroeconomic fundamentals strongly support continued property price appreciation through 2026.
GDP growth is forecasted at 3.3% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026, providing a solid economic foundation for housing demand. This growth rate exceeds many Western European countries and supports rising household incomes that can sustain higher property prices.
Unemployment remains exceptionally low at 2.7% as of September 2025, with rising wages across major sectors. This employment strength supports both homebuyer confidence and rental demand from employed residents.
Inflation is expected to slow gradually from current levels, which should help stabilize construction costs and improve housing affordability over time. Lower inflation combined with potential interest rate cuts creates favorable financing conditions for property purchases.
Economic stability and EU membership provide confidence for long-term property investment, barring major external shocks. Poland's resilient economy during recent global uncertainties demonstrates its capacity to maintain property market momentum even during challenging periods.
How will demographic shifts, such as urban migration or population decline in certain regions, influence property prices?
Demographic trends will create divergent property price trajectories across different Polish regions through 2026.
Strong urban migration into Poland's largest cities continues driving demand in Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, and the Tri-City region. Young professionals and families relocating from smaller towns and rural areas sustain population growth in these urban centers, supporting continued price appreciation.
Conversely, rural areas and smaller regional cities face potential stagnation or decline in property values as population outflow continues. This demographic shift concentrates housing demand in major urban areas while reducing pressure in peripheral locations.
Demographic changes toward single-person households and population aging may moderately affect long-term demand structures. Smaller household sizes increase demand for housing units even with stable population levels, while aging demographics may shift preferences toward accessible, well-connected properties.
Immigration from neighboring countries, particularly Ukraine, adds to housing demand in major cities. This demographic boost supports rental markets and property appreciation in urban areas with employment opportunities and established immigrant communities.
What risks or potential shocks—like new government regulations, political instability, or global economic downturns—could slow down or reverse property price growth in Poland by 2026?
Several potential risks could impact Poland's property market trajectory through 2026.
1. **Regulatory changes:** New zoning regulations, tax policies, or affordability measures scheduled for 2026 could alter market dynamics. Government intervention to address housing affordability might include rent controls or property taxes that could affect investor returns. 2. **Political uncertainty:** Electoral changes or policy shifts could affect foreign investment confidence and EU funding allocation. Changes in government priorities regarding housing policy or foreign investment rules might impact market sentiment. 3. **Global economic shocks:** International recessions, banking crises, or major geopolitical events could reduce foreign investment and domestic demand. Global inflation or supply chain disruptions could significantly increase construction costs. 4. **Geopolitical instability:** Regional conflicts or changes to EU relationships could affect Poland's investment attractiveness and economic stability. Any disruption to EU funding or trade relationships might impact development financing. 5. **Interest rate shocks:** Unexpected increases in European Central Bank rates or Polish monetary policy could dramatically affect mortgage affordability and property demand.It's something we develop in our Poland property pack.
Based on current trends, should a buyer entering the Polish property market in 2026 expect better opportunities in new developments, second-hand homes, or rental investments?
Each property segment offers distinct opportunities for buyers entering Poland's market in 2026.
New developments remain attractive for buyers prioritizing energy efficiency, modern amenities, and government support programs. These properties benefit from EU funding for sustainable construction and often offer better financing terms. New builds in growing urban locations like Wrocław and the Tri-City region present strong appreciation potential.
Second-hand homes may offer better value, particularly in central Warsaw and Kraków districts where new development prices have reached premium levels. Existing properties in established neighborhoods might provide more stable returns with lower entry costs, though renovation requirements should be considered.
Rental investments continue offering competitive returns compared to other EU markets, especially in Wrocław, Gdańsk, and emerging Warsaw districts. The expanding build-to-rent sector and strong rental demand from young professionals and immigrants support this investment strategy.
Buyers should align their strategy with specific locations and market timing. Urban new builds offer growth potential, while rental investments provide immediate income generation with competitive yields by European standards.
Conclusion
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are advised to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided.
Poland's property market enters 2026 with sustained momentum, though growth rates will moderate from recent exceptional levels.
Strategic buyers should focus on emerging urban centers like Wrocław and coastal markets while considering rental investment opportunities that remain competitive by European standards.
Sources
- Poland Insight - Average Apartment Prices June 2025
- InvestRopa - Warsaw Apartment Prices
- InvestRopa - Poland Price Forecasts
- Global Property Guide - Poland Price History
- InvestRopa - Kraków Apartment Prices
- Atlantic Estates - Construction Costs Poland
- CIJ Europe - Polish Housing Market Growth
- EY - Polish Real Estate Guide 2025