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Everything you need to know before buying real estate is included in our Poland Property Pack
Poland's property market has experienced dramatic price surges of 17-27% across major cities in 2024, raising serious questions about sustainability and potential correction risks.
With mortgage rates hitting 7-8%, construction costs rising, and transaction volumes dropping 31% year-on-year, multiple warning signs suggest the market is reaching a critical inflection point that could determine whether prices stabilize, correct, or continue their unsustainable climb.
If you want to go deeper, you can check our pack of documents related to the real estate market in Poland, based on reliable facts and data, not opinions or rumors.
Poland's property market shows mixed crash signals as of September 2025, with dramatic price increases of 17-27% in major cities creating affordability concerns, but strong employment and gradual interest rate cuts providing market support.
While transaction volumes dropped 31% and unsold inventory accumulates, most experts predict price stabilization rather than a crash over the next 12-24 months.
| Market Indicator | Current Status | Crash Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Price Growth 2024 | 17-27% in major cities | High (Unsustainable) |
| Mortgage Rates | 7.1-8.65% | Medium (Cooling expected) |
| Transaction Volume | -31% year-on-year | Medium (Demand weakness) |
| Employment | Low unemployment, strong wages | Low (Supportive) |
| Construction Starts | +23.7% in 2024 | Medium (Future oversupply risk) |
| Expert Predictions | Single-digit growth expected | Low (Soft landing) |
How much have property prices in Poland actually risen or fallen over the last 12 to 24 months?
Polish residential property prices have surged dramatically, with an overall increase of 17-18% year-on-year in early to mid-2024, following a 5.5% rise in 2023.
The price acceleration has been most pronounced in Poland's major urban centers. Kraków led the surge with new apartment prices rising 27.7% in 2024, while Warsaw saw increases of 24%. Gdańsk also experienced similar double-digit growth rates throughout this period.
As of September 2025, the pace of growth has begun to moderate in some segments. Smaller apartment units in Warsaw showed signs of price stabilization or slight declines in Q2 2025, suggesting the market may be reaching peak pricing levels. However, overall property values remain significantly elevated compared to 2023 levels.
This represents one of the most dramatic price increases in Poland's modern real estate history, driven primarily by the government's "Safe Loan 2%" program that ended in late 2024 and created intense buying pressure.
What is happening with the number of new housing projects being built compared to previous years?
Housing construction activity in Poland shows a complex pattern of increased starts but declining completion rates as of September 2025.
New housing starts soared by 23.7% in 2024 compared to 2023, with approximately 233,800 new residential units begun during the year. This represents a significant acceleration in development activity, primarily driven by strong demand and favorable market conditions in the first half of 2024.
However, housing completions tell a different story, dropping by 9.6% in late 2024. This completion lag creates a substantial pipeline of units under construction, which rose 4.2% year-on-year by the end of 2024. The construction sector's total output is expected to decline by 2.8% in 2024 after growing 4.9% in 2023.
This disconnect between starts and completions suggests potential future supply pressure once these projects reach completion, which could help moderate price growth in 2025-2026.
It's something we develop in our Poland property pack.
Are mortgage interest rates in Poland still going up, and how affordable are loans for the average buyer right now?
Mortgage affordability in Poland has reached critically low levels as of September 2025, with interest rates remaining elevated despite expectations for gradual reductions.
Current mortgage rates range from 7.10-7.94% for 5-year fixed loans and up to 8.65% for variable rate mortgages. The National Bank of Poland's reference rate stands at 5.00%, and while economists forecast gradual cuts through 2025-2026, borrowing costs remain far above the 2021-2022 levels that fueled the initial market boom.
Average buyers now require substantially higher incomes or larger deposits to qualify for mortgages compared to just two years ago. The combination of high prices and elevated interest rates has created a significant affordability crisis, particularly affecting first-time buyers and middle-income households.
This affordability squeeze is already impacting market activity, with many potential buyers priced out of major urban markets and forcing some to look toward smaller towns or delay purchases entirely.
How is the demand for property in big cities like Warsaw, Kraków, and Gdańsk compared to smaller towns?
Demand patterns across Poland show a clear divide between major cities and smaller markets, though affordability pressures are beginning to shift some activity.
| Market Segment | Demand Level | Price Performance 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Warsaw Center | High but cooling | +24% year-on-year |
| Kraków Urban | Very Strong | +27.7% year-on-year |
| Gdańsk Coastal | Strong | +20%+ year-on-year |
| Secondary Cities | Moderate | +10-15% year-on-year |
| Small Towns | Growing Interest | +5-10% year-on-year |
| Suburban Areas | Increasing | +12-18% year-on-year |
Warsaw, Kraków, and Gdańsk continue to experience the strongest demand fundamentals, with many districts seeing above-average price rises and fast property absorption. However, unit sales in the six largest urban markets dropped 31% year-on-year in mid-2024, reflecting lower transaction volumes amid higher prices and tighter credit conditions.
Smaller towns and suburban areas are gaining increased interest as buyers seek affordability alternatives. This spillover effect is creating price pressure in previously stable secondary markets, though urban centers maintain their premium status and growth momentum.
Are salaries in Poland growing fast enough to keep up with rising property prices?
Polish wage growth has been robust but insufficient to offset the dramatic property price increases, creating a widening affordability gap.
Salaries in Poland increased by 12.8% year-on-year in January 2024, representing strong nominal growth that outpaces inflation. However, property prices in major cities have risen 17-27% during the same period, meaning real estate has become significantly less affordable relative to income.
In major Polish cities, the average worker still needs approximately seven years of gross salary to afford a typical apartment, a ratio that has remained unchanged or worsened despite overall wage growth. This indicates that property price appreciation has effectively neutralized salary gains.
The wage-to-property price ratio suggests that current market levels are increasingly disconnected from local earning capacity, creating fundamental sustainability concerns for continued price growth.
Real purchasing power for property has actually declined for most Polish workers, despite the country's strong overall economic performance and employment growth.
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How many properties are currently sitting unsold or listed for long periods without buyers?
Poland's property market is showing early signs of inventory accumulation, particularly in the new development segment as of September 2025.
Despite increased housing starts in 2024, completion delays have created a complex inventory situation. The supply of unsold new homes has increased in several regions, with developers holding more completed units than in previous years. In the six biggest Polish markets, 31% fewer new homes were sold in 2024 compared to the previous year, despite more offerings becoming available.
This sales volume decline, combined with increased supply, suggests growing inventory levels that could pressure prices if the trend continues. Some developers are beginning to offer incentives or adjust pricing strategies for units that have remained on the market for extended periods.
The disconnect between supply and absorption rates indicates potential market saturation in certain price segments, particularly for premium new developments in major cities where affordability constraints are most severe.
However, overall inventory levels remain manageable compared to pre-2008 crisis standards, suggesting a cooling rather than collapse scenario.
What do the rental yields look like today compared to a few years ago, and are they covering mortgage costs?
Rental yields in Poland have improved modestly but generally fail to cover current mortgage financing costs, creating challenges for leveraged investors.
Average gross rental yields across major Polish cities range from 5.3-6.7% in early 2025, with Warsaw and other primary markets typically achieving around 6.1%. These yields represent a slight improvement from previous years, driven primarily by rising rental rates rather than property price corrections.
However, at current mortgage rates of 7.1-8.65%, rental income typically falls short of covering mortgage payments for leveraged property purchases. This negative carry situation means investors must contribute additional cash monthly to service debt, significantly reducing investment returns.
The yield-to-mortgage rate gap of approximately 1-3 percentage points represents a fundamental challenge for the buy-to-let market and may contribute to reduced investor demand if financing costs remain elevated.
Only cash buyers or those with substantial down payments can achieve positive cash flow from rental properties in the current market environment.
Are foreign investors still buying Polish property, or have they started pulling back?
Foreign investment in Polish property remains active but shows shifting patterns and some cooling among certain investor groups as of September 2025.
1. **Ukrainian and Belarusian buyers** continue increasing their market presence due to regional instability and Poland's relative stability 2. **German investors** have notably pulled back in 2024, citing elevated prices and reduced yield attractiveness 3. **Institutional international investment** remains cautious, with most new activity coming from domestic sources 4. **Neighboring country capital flows** (Czech Republic, Slovakia) continue but at reduced volumes 5. **Western European investors** are showing increased selectivity, focusing on prime locations with strong fundamentalsForeign buyers still represent approximately 5% of the overall Polish property market, indicating continued international interest despite affordability concerns. However, the mix has shifted toward investors from Eastern Europe seeking stability rather than Western yield-focused buyers.
It's something we develop in our Poland property pack.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Poland versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you're planning to invest there.
How have government policies, subsidies, or tax rules changed recently for buyers and developers?
Poland has implemented significant policy changes in 2024-2025 that are reshaping the property market landscape and potentially cooling speculative activity.
The most impactful change was the termination of the "Bezpieczny Kredyt 2 proc." (Safe Loan 2%) program in late 2024. This subsidized lending program had driven much of the 2023-2024 price surge by providing below-market financing, and its removal has contributed to reduced transaction volumes and affordability challenges.
New development transparency laws implemented in 2025 require greater price disclosure and buyer protection measures. Developers must now provide more detailed market information and cannot engage in certain pricing practices that previously inflated costs.
Tax changes include new real estate definitions that now classify garages as residential property, potentially reducing some property tax burdens. Additionally, municipalities must adopt new general development plans by the end of 2025, giving local governments more control over development density and location.
These policy shifts collectively represent a move toward greater market regulation and transparency, which may moderate speculative activity but could also reduce development incentives.
What are the unemployment and job security trends in Poland, and how might they impact people's ability to buy property?
Poland's employment situation remains robust as of September 2025, providing fundamental support for property demand despite affordability challenges.
The country maintains low unemployment rates and strong job growth across most sectors, which has underpinned housing demand throughout the recent price surge. Wage growth continues at double-digit rates, and job security remains high for most workers in major urban centers.
However, some economic cooling risks are emerging as higher interest rates begin to impact business investment and consumer spending. New government measures are being implemented to stabilize employment during this transition period.
The strong employment foundation means that property demand is supported by genuine economic fundamentals rather than speculative activity alone. This employment stability reduces the risk of forced selling or widespread defaults that could trigger a market crash.
Nevertheless, affordability constraints mean that even employed individuals are increasingly unable to access the property market, which could lead to reduced transaction volumes rather than unemployment-driven distress sales.
Are construction and material costs still increasing, and is this slowing down new development projects?
Construction costs continue rising in Poland through 2025, creating significant pressure on development economics and potentially constraining future supply.
Labor, equipment, and rental costs for construction continue their upward trajectory in 2025, though building material prices have shown some stabilization after earlier increases. The combination of higher construction costs and elevated financing expenses is substantially impacting development project viability.
Many private developers are slowing new project launches or requiring higher pre-sale commitments before breaking ground. The increased cost structure means that new developments must command premium prices to maintain profitability, which further exacerbates affordability concerns.
This cost pressure is contributing to the decline in overall construction sector output, expected to drop 2.8% in 2024 after growing 4.9% in 2023. The slowdown in new development starts could reduce future housing supply and maintain price pressure in the medium term.
However, the large pipeline of projects already under construction provides some near-term supply relief, though at higher price points than previous developments.
What are most local experts and banks predicting about property prices in Poland over the next 12 to 24 months?
Local analysts and banking institutions are broadly predicting a market stabilization rather than a crash over the next 12-24 months, though growth expectations have moderated significantly.
| Institution Type | Price Prediction 2025-2026 | Key Assumptions |
|---|---|---|
| Major Banks | Single-digit growth (3-7%) | Gradual rate cuts, stable employment |
| Real Estate Analysts | Price stabilization | Affordability constraints limiting demand |
| Government Economists | Moderate growth (5-8%) | Policy changes cooling speculation |
| International Firms | Regional variations (0-10%) | Major cities cooling, secondary markets growing |
| Developer Associations | Supply-driven stabilization | New completions moderating prices |
Most forecasts expect mortgage rates to ease gradually through 2025-2026, which should improve affordability and support continued demand in major cities. However, the consensus view is that transaction activity will depend heavily on the pace of interest rate reductions and new housing supply coming to market.
Experts generally agree that current price levels represent a new plateau rather than a bubble, supported by strong employment and genuine housing demand, but further dramatic increases are unlikely given affordability constraints.
It's something we develop in our Poland property pack.
Conclusion
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are advised to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided.
While Poland's property market shows several warning signs typical of overheated conditions—including dramatic price increases, affordability crises, and declining transaction volumes—the fundamental economic supports remain intact.
The consensus among experts suggests a market cooling and stabilization rather than a crash, though investors and buyers should prepare for a prolonged period of modest growth and continued affordability challenges.
Sources
- InvestRopa Poland Real Estate Market Analysis
- InvestRopa Poland Price Forecasts
- Deloitte Property Index
- Atlantic Estates Q2 2025 Report
- Poland Insight Housing Market Trends
- World Construction Network Poland Data
- Polish Radio Construction Statistics
- Polish Mortgage Market Update
- Global Property Guide Poland Yields
- National Bank of Poland Housing Report