Will house prices drop in Ireland?

Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Ireland Property Pack

Everything you need to know before buying real estate is included in our Ireland Property Pack

Who is the author of this content?

INVESTROPA

A team specialized in real estate investing in European countries (Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Germany, etc.).

We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Ireland. If you'd like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.

How this content was created 🔎📝

At InvestRopa, we explore the Irish real estate market every day. Our team doesn't just analyze data from a distance—we're actively engaging with local realtors, investors, and property managers in cities like Dublin, Cork, and Galway. This hands-on approach allows us to gain a deep understanding of the market from the inside out.

These observations are originally based on what we've learned through these conversations and our observations. But it was not enough. To back them up, we also needed to rely on trusted resources

We prioritize accuracy and authority. Trends lacking solid data or expert validation were excluded.

Trustworthiness is central to our work. Every source and citation is clearly listed, ensuring transparency. A writing AI-powered tool was used solely to refine readability and engagement.

To make the information accessible, our team designed custom infographics that clarify key points. We hope you will like them! All illustrations and media were created in-house and added manually.

Fact-checked and reviewed by our local expert

✓✓✓

Anthony McCann 🇮🇪

Co-Founder, FindQo.ie

Anthony McCann co-founded FindQo.ie to bring a smarter, more user-friendly property experience to the Irish market. With Ireland's housing needs evolving, he saw the need for a fresh, tech-driven platform. FindQo.ie helps people buy, sell, or rent homes and commercial properties easily. It's designed to support buyers, renters, and agents with powerful search tools and expert guidance.

What are current house prices in Ireland compared to last year?

House prices in Ireland have surged dramatically over the past year, with the national average reaching €346,048 in Q1 2025.

This represents an 11.6% increase compared to the same period in 2024, marking one of the highest annual growth rates in a decade. The Q1 2025 quarterly increase of 3.7% shows strong momentum, with growth rates only surpassed during the housing surge of 2017.

Detached houses have seen the strongest gains at 9.08% year-on-year, while apartments increased by 6.55%. This rapid price appreciation has pushed Ireland's residential market well above pre-pandemic levels, with no signs of the increases slowing down in the first half of 2025.

As of June 2025, the Irish residential market continues to defy expectations with sustained price growth across all property types.

Have prices been falling, staying flat, or continuing to rise recently?

Prices have been rising consistently, not falling or staying flat, throughout the last several months leading into mid-2025.

The pace of growth actually accelerated from late 2024 into early 2025, with quarterly increases maintaining strong momentum. Data from the Central Statistics Office and Daft.ie confirms this upward trajectory has continued without interruption through the first quarter of 2025.

However, experts predict this rapid increase will begin to slow down or potentially reverse in the second half of 2025. This expected shift is primarily due to anticipated increases in housing supply, with up to 40,000 new homes expected to be completed throughout 2024-2025.

The current rising trend represents a continuation of post-pandemic recovery that has now evolved into a supply-constrained market driving prices upward.

Is the price trend data reliable or just media speculation?

The price trend data is highly reliable and comes from official government sources and established market research organizations.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) provides official residential property price index data, while Daft.ie offers comprehensive market analysis based on actual listing prices and transactions. Both sources consistently show clear year-on-year and quarterly price increases, making the data credible rather than speculative.

Expert forecasts from organizations like the Banking & Payments Federation Ireland and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) support expectations of potential market shifts based on supply improvements. These institutions base their analysis on economic fundamentals rather than media speculation.

The convergence of multiple reliable data sources showing the same trends provides strong confidence in the accuracy of current market assessments.

It's something we develop in our Ireland property pack.

What are the main reasons experts think prices might drop soon?

The primary reason for potential price drops is the expected significant increase in housing supply over the next 12-18 months.

Factor	Current Impact	Expected Change
Housing Supply	Record low at 9,300 homes	40,000 new completions expected
Affordability	Prices 10% overvalued (ESRI)	Correction pressure mounting
Interest Rates	High relative to incomes	Limiting buyer pool
Economic Uncertainty	Global risks affecting confidence	More cautious buyers
Remote Work Trends	Demand shifting to suburbs/rural	Reduced urban price pressure

Which counties in Ireland are seeing the biggest price changes?

Dublin leads urban price increases with a 12.2% year-on-year gain, representing the steepest increase in eight years.

The Rest of Leinster region shows the highest growth at 13.4%, marking levels not seen since 2017. Galway and Limerick are both experiencing above-national-average growth at 13.2% and 13.8% respectively.

Rural western and northwestern counties, including Donegal and Leitrim, are seeing dramatic increases exceeding 20% in some areas. Waterford and Cork are showing relatively slower growth at 11.2% and 9.2% respectively, though still well above historical averages.

The regional variations indicate strong demand spreading beyond traditional urban centers, with rural and commuter areas experiencing the most dramatic price appreciation as remote work trends continue to influence buyer preferences.

Are price changes happening more in cities, suburbs, or rural areas?

The biggest proportional price increases are occurring in rural areas and suburbs, while urban centers show strong but potentially plateauing growth.

Rural western and northwestern counties are experiencing the most dramatic increases, with some areas seeing gains exceeding 20%. Suburban areas around major cities are also showing accelerating growth as buyers seek more space and value outside urban cores.

Urban areas like Dublin continue to see significant increases at 12.2% year-on-year, but experts expect these markets to level off or potentially dip as supply catches up and demand shifts outward. Transaction volumes in urban areas have actually decreased by 8.2% compared to the previous year.

The trend reflects changing lifestyle preferences driven by remote work options, with buyers prioritizing space and affordability over proximity to city centers. Suburban and rural markets are showing more stability and continued growth potential compared to potentially overheated urban markets.

Are fewer people buying and selling homes, and how does this impact prices?

Market activity shows a complex picture with record low supply driving continued price increases despite some reduction in urban transactions.

Supply has reached historic lows with fewer than 9,300 second-hand homes available nationwide as of March 2025, representing a 17% drop year-on-year and the lowest level since records began. This supply shortage is the primary driver of continued price increases.

Buyer demand remains high, particularly among first-time buyers, but affordability constraints are limiting some buyers' ability to purchase. Urban areas specifically have seen an 8.2% decrease in transaction volumes, while rural and suburban areas maintain stronger activity levels.

The combination of extremely low supply and sustained demand creates a seller's market that continues to push prices upward, even as transaction volumes moderate in some areas. This dynamic is expected to persist until significant new supply comes online.

What do experts predict for short, medium, and long-term prices?

Short-term forecasts suggest prices may stabilize or see modest declines in the second half of 2025 as new housing supply begins to impact the market.

Medium-term predictions indicate continued supply improvements and stable interest rates could lead to price plateaus or modest corrections through 2026-2027. However, persistent supply-demand imbalances may keep prices elevated in key areas.

Long-term outlooks depend heavily on Ireland's ability to sustainably increase housing supply and maintain economic growth. If supply chains improve and construction accelerates, prices could moderate significantly. Conversely, continued bottlenecks and strong economic fundamentals may support elevated price levels.

Expert consensus suggests the rapid price appreciation of 2024-2025 is unsustainable, but any corrections are likely to be gradual rather than dramatic, particularly given Ireland's strong economic position and continued population growth.

It's something we develop in our Ireland property pack.

We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Ireland versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you're planning to invest there.

Are interest rates, inflation, or housing supply the main market drivers?

Housing supply is by far the most significant driver of Ireland's residential market dynamics, overshadowing interest rates and inflation effects.

The record low supply of available homes, combined with sustained demand, creates the primary upward pressure on prices. Recent ECB interest rate cuts have reduced borrowing costs and supported market activity, though mortgage payments remain high relative to average incomes.

Inflation has moderated in the general economy, but construction costs remain elevated, affecting new build pricing and supply timelines. The ESRI warns that current prices may be overvalued by approximately 10%, suggesting affordability constraints are becoming a limiting factor.

While interest rates and inflation play supporting roles, the fundamental supply shortage drives the market's current trajectory. Any meaningful price moderation will likely require substantial increases in housing completions rather than changes in monetary policy.

Should buyers purchase now or wait for better market conditions?

For buyers planning to stay long-term (5+ years) who have found suitable properties, purchasing now can make financial sense despite elevated prices.

1. **Mortgage rates have stabilized** following ECB cuts, and government supports for first-time buyers remain robust through 20252. **Buying often costs less than renting** over 30-year periods in most Irish regions, providing long-term financial benefits3. **First-time buyer schemes** including Help to Buy and First Home initiatives offer significant support4. **Supply improvements** in commuter and suburban areas provide better value opportunities outside urban cores5. **Waiting carries risks** as any price corrections may be modest, and continued delays could result in higher costs

However, buyers concerned about potential corrections or needing flexibility may benefit from waiting, particularly in overheated urban markets where prices could level off as supply increases. The decision ultimately depends on individual circumstances, timeline, and risk tolerance.

Does it make more sense to rent or buy based on current costs?

Buying generally makes more financial sense than renting for long-term residents, despite high upfront costs in most Irish markets.

Monthly mortgage payments are now lower than average rents in many areas, particularly outside Dublin's most expensive neighborhoods. Over a 30-year period, buying typically results in significant savings compared to renting, except in select high-priced areas like South Dublin where short-term renting may be more cost-effective.

Rents remain extremely high, especially in urban centers, making homeownership attractive for those who can afford down payments and qualify for mortgages. The rent-to-purchase price ratio favors buyers in most regions outside the most expensive urban cores.

For buyers planning to stay in Ireland for five or more years, purchasing property provides both financial benefits and protection against future rent increases, making it the preferred option in current market conditions.

It's something we develop in our Ireland property pack.

What strategies can buyers use to get the best deals and protect against falling prices?

Smart buyers should focus on preparation, location selection, and risk management to navigate Ireland's challenging market conditions.

1. **Get mortgage pre-approval** and understand your complete budget including all associated costs2. **Consider suburban or rural areas** where prices show more stability and better value potential3. **Factor in total ownership costs** including legal fees, stamp duty, maintenance, and potential renovations4. **Avoid overbidding** and remain patient as increased supply may provide more leverage later in 20255. **Prioritize energy efficiency** and future-proofing features that maintain value and reduce operating costs6. **Utilize government schemes** and compare multiple mortgage offers to maximize affordability7. **Focus on transportation links** and infrastructure development that supports long-term value8. **Consider properties with renovation potential** in established neighborhoods rather than premium new builds

Protection against falling prices comes from buying in areas with strong fundamentals, avoiding overextension, and focusing on properties that serve long-term needs rather than speculative gains.

Conclusion

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are advised to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided.

Sources

1. World Property Journal - Ireland Real Estate News
2. Global Property Guide - Ireland Price History
3. Her.ie - Experts Predict House Price Timeline
4. Homsassist - Irish Property Market Analysis
5. FindQo - First Time Buyers Guide Ireland 2025
6. FindQo - Renting vs Buying Ireland 2025
7. CBRE Ireland Real Estate Market Outlook 2025
8. Central Statistics Office - Residential Property Price Index