Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Poland Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Warsaw's property market is included in our pack
What will happen in Warsaw’s real estate market? Will prices go up or down? Is Warsaw still a hotspot for foreign investors? How is Poland’s government impacting real estate policies and taxes in 2025?
We’re constantly asked these questions because we’re deeply involved in this market. Through our work with notaries, real estate agents, and clients who buy properties in Warsaw, we’ve gained firsthand insights.
That’s why we created this article: to provide clear answers, insightful analysis, and a well-rounded perspective on market predictions and forecasts.
Our goal is simple: to ensure you feel informed and confident about the market without needing to look elsewhere. If you think we missed the mark or could do better, we’d love to hear your thoughts. Feel free to message us with your feedback or comments, and we’ll work hard to improve this content for you.
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1) More foreign investors will focus on Warsaw as its economy grows
Foreign buyers are increasingly targeting Warsaw for investment due to its growing economy, and there are several reasons for this trend. First, Poland's economy has shown strong growth, with GDP increasing by 3.0% in 2024 and expected to rise by 3.6% in 2025. This economic growth is largely driven by strong private consumption and investment, creating a favorable environment for foreign investors.
Additionally, Warsaw has seen a significant increase in foreign direct investment, particularly in the tech and finance sectors. This influx of investment has boosted the city's job market, leading to higher demand for both short-term and long-term rentals. As a result, Warsaw is becoming an attractive destination for international businesses and investors.
Moreover, Warsaw offers impressive rental yields of 6.03%, making it an appealing investment opportunity for foreign buyers. The city's role as an economic and business center in Eastern Europe further enhances its attractiveness. Furthermore, the presence of numerous international companies and organizations in Warsaw has contributed to the rising demand for rental properties, indicating that the city is becoming a hub for international business operations.
Sources: The Luxury Playbook, European Commission: Economic forecast for Poland
2) Property development costs in Warsaw will rise due to new environmental regulations
Warsaw's new environmental regulations are set to increase property development costs.
In 2024, the city rolled out the Warsaw Green Building Standard, which means developers now have to follow specific environmental guidelines. This involves extra spending on design, documentation, and making sure projects are energy-efficient and support sustainable mobility. These changes are not just about ticking boxes; they require real investment in eco-friendly solutions.
As the demand for green materials rises, so do the costs. For instance, using sustainable wood or recycled materials is pricier than sticking with traditional options. This isn't unique to Warsaw; cities like Berlin and Amsterdam have seen significant hikes in development costs due to similar regulations. It's a trend that's reshaping the construction landscape.
Getting green building certifications like LEED or BREEAM is another expense. Just registering for BREEAM can set you back around 900 GBP, and the design stage certification might cost up to 1.8 thousand GBP. These certifications are crucial for meeting the new environmental standards, but they don't come cheap.
Developers in Warsaw are now navigating a landscape where eco-friendly practices are not just encouraged but required. This shift is part of a broader movement towards sustainability in urban development. It's a balancing act between meeting regulations and managing costs, a challenge that many in the industry are facing.
For those considering buying property in Warsaw, it's essential to understand how these regulations might affect prices. The push for greener buildings is reshaping the market, and while it promises long-term benefits, the immediate impact is on the cost of development. Buyers should be aware of these dynamics as they explore their options.
Sources: MDPI, Architektura i Biznes
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Poland compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
3) Demand for affordable rentals will rise as the student population grows
Warsaw's student population is booming, and it's reshaping the rental market.
In the 2024/2025 academic year, the University of Warsaw saw a surge in student numbers, with 30,261 new candidates and a total of 56,009 registrations. This influx is pushing the demand for budget-friendly housing through the roof.
International students are also flocking to Poland, with 2,645 international students at the University of Warsaw in the 2021/2022 academic year. This trend means more students, both local and international, are on the hunt for places to stay, further heating up the rental market.
By December 2023, 1,245.2 thousand people were enrolled in higher education across Poland, up from the previous year. This growth is particularly felt in major cities like Warsaw, where universities are expanding and drawing in more students.
With universities growing and attracting more students, Warsaw is experiencing a housing crunch. The demand for affordable rentals is skyrocketing, making it a prime time for property investors to consider the market.
As the student population continues to rise, the need for affordable housing options becomes even more pressing, creating opportunities for those looking to invest in rental properties.
Sources: University of Warsaw Admissions, International Student Statistics, Higher Education Enrollment
4) City center property prices will rise moderately as demand evens out
In 2023, Warsaw experienced a remarkable surge in property transactions, with a 65% increase in residential units sold compared to the previous year.
This boom reflects a strong demand for housing, especially in the city center, where people are eager to settle. With interest rates expected to stabilize, mortgages will become more affordable, making it easier for many to buy or rent properties in these prime areas.
Warsaw's population is on the rise, partly due to an influx of expatriates who are boosting the demand for rentals in the city center. This trend, along with surveys showing a preference for central living, suggests a stable demand that will likely lead to moderate price increases.
However, there's a catch: the supply of new housing in the city center is limited. This shortage means that as more people look to live in these desirable spots, property prices could see a moderate rise.
For those considering buying property in Warsaw, it's worth noting that the city center remains a hot spot. The combination of growing demand and limited supply makes it a potentially lucrative investment.
As the market stabilizes, expect the city center to see a moderate price increase as demand continues to hold steady.
Sources: Global Property Guide, KPMG, WBJ
5) Short-term rental returns will rise in tourist hotspots like the Old Town
Warsaw is seeing a boom in tourism, especially in 2023 and 2024.
In 2023, Poland welcomed nearly 19 million visitors, a jump from the previous year's 16 million. This uptick shows that places like the Old Town are becoming hot spots for tourists. With more people flocking to these areas, the demand for short-term rentals is on the rise.
Tourists are increasingly opting for short-term stays, with a 7.7% increase in tourist accommodation usage in Warsaw in 2023. The occupancy rate hit 52.6%, indicating that short-term rentals are becoming a popular choice. This trend is great news for property owners looking to boost their rental income.
The Old Town, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, is a magnet for those eager to dive into Warsaw's history and culture. Its charm and significance ensure a consistent demand for short-term rentals, especially during peak seasons filled with cultural events.
Investing in property here could be a smart move, as rental yields are likely to climb with the growing tourist numbers. The Old Town's allure is not just its history but also its vibrant atmosphere, drawing visitors year-round.
For anyone considering buying property in Warsaw, especially in tourist-heavy areas like the Old Town, the potential for increased short-term rental yields is promising.
Sources: CEIC Data, Warsaw Statistics, World Cities Culture Forum
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6) Rental yields will stabilize as more properties become available
In recent years, Warsaw has seen a significant rise in new residential developments. Companies like Yareal have been expanding their apartment offerings in various districts, such as Bemowo and Wilanów. For example, the NEOWO development in Bemowo is a high-standard residential complex with 163 apartments, and the ENSO Wilanów project will add 70 large apartments, nearly half of which will be 4- and 5-room units.
This increase in new residential estates is boosting the availability of rental properties in Warsaw. As more units become available, the market is expected to stabilize rental yields by meeting the growing demand for housing. This is particularly important as Warsaw continues to experience significant population growth and urbanization, with a large student population and new businesses attracting more people to the city.
Additionally, the influx of expatriates and international students is further contributing to the demand for rental properties. Polish students, often supported financially by their parents, prioritize optimal living conditions, while foreign students from Western Europe expect similar comfort during their stay in Poland. This growing demand, coupled with the increasing supply of rental properties, suggests that rental yields will stabilize as the market balances out.
Sources: Yareal, JLL, KoronaPay
7) Student demand will increase rental yields in Bielany as it becomes more popular
In recent years, Bielany has been gaining attention as a potential hotspot for student living, and several factors contribute to this trend. First, the University of Warsaw, a major educational institution in the area, reported a significant increase in admissions for the 2024/2025 academic year. This rise in student numbers suggests a growing demand for accommodation in nearby areas like Bielany.
Moreover, the demand for student housing in Warsaw is notably high, with only 9% of students able to secure spots in university-owned residences. This gap between supply and demand creates a ripe opportunity for private housing markets in areas such as Bielany to flourish. As rental prices in other popular student areas continue to rise, students are likely to seek more affordable options, making Bielany an attractive alternative.
Additionally, the development of new student housing projects in other parts of Warsaw indicates a trend that could extend to Bielany. The presence of modern amenities and services in these new developments could set a precedent for similar initiatives in Bielany, further enhancing its appeal to students. With Warsaw's well-developed public transportation system, commuting from Bielany to various universities is convenient, adding to its attractiveness as a student-friendly area.
Sources: University of Warsaw, Property Forum, Griffin Capital Partners
8) Property prices in Mokotów will rise as demand grows near new tech company offices
Mokotów is quickly becoming a tech hub, attracting major companies and boosting the local economy.
With big names like the Stepstone Group setting up shop, job opportunities in the IT sector are booming. This influx of tech jobs is a major reason why more people are looking to live in Mokotów.
As more tech companies move in, rental prices in Mokotów are climbing. A one-room apartment now costs between 2,500 to 2,900 zlotys, which is on par with other popular districts.
Tech workers love being close to their offices, and Mokotów's tech scene is a perfect match. Real estate agents report a spike in property inquiries, driven by this preference.
Infrastructure is also getting a boost, with new public transport options enhancing connectivity. This makes Mokotów even more appealing for those working in tech.
With these developments, Mokotów is set to see a surge in demand, likely leading to higher property prices.
Sources: The Stepstone Group, KoronaPay, Rural Insights
We created this infographic to give you a simple idea of how much it costs to buy property in different parts of Poland. As you can see, it breaks down price ranges and property types for popular cities in the country. We hope this makes it easier to explore your options and understand the market.
9) Affordable housing development in Warsaw will grow due to government incentives
In 2023 and 2024, the Polish government allocated 4.28 billion PLN to support housing programs, focusing on affordable housing in Warsaw.
These funds are earmarked for energy-efficient housing and thermomodernizing buildings, crucial steps in making homes more affordable. The National Recovery Plan (KPO) is also channeling resources into housing, showing a strong governmental push to ease the housing burden.
One standout initiative is the #naStart program, which reduces loan interest rates to make home ownership more accessible. This is a big deal for those looking to buy in Warsaw, where prices can be steep.
Warsaw is also looking at public-private partnerships to increase the supply of new real estate. By using the PPP formula and concessions, the city aims to tackle the housing shortage and high rent prices.
These efforts are essential as Warsaw's population grows, putting pressure on the housing market. The city's strategy is to boost development and make living in the capital more affordable.
With these government incentives, Warsaw is poised to see a significant boost in affordable housing development, making it a more attractive option for potential buyers.
Sources: Global Property Guide, Polskie Radio, Urban Land Institute Europe
10) Demand for eco-friendly apartments will rise as people become more environmentally conscious
Eco-friendly apartments are gaining traction as more people become aware of environmental issues.
In Warsaw, nearly 47% of Poland's green buildings are located in the city, highlighting a strong trend towards sustainable living. This shift is evident as the city embraces eco-friendly architecture, making it a hub for green innovation.
Companies like Skanska are seeing a boom in sales of sustainable building materials. They've reported a tripling in sales of low-carbon mixes, which can cut climate impact by up to 50% compared to traditional materials. This surge shows a growing interest in eco-friendly construction practices.
Consumer preferences are changing too. A 2024 survey by the National Association of REALTORS found that nearly half of respondents noticed their clients' interest in sustainability. This shift reflects a broader societal move towards eco-conscious living, pushing the demand for eco-friendly apartments even higher.
As environmental awareness grows, eco-friendly apartments are set to become more popular. People are increasingly looking for homes that align with their values, and sustainable living spaces are at the forefront of this change.
With the rise in green buildings and sustainable materials, Warsaw is positioning itself as a leader in eco-friendly urban development. This trend is likely to continue as more people prioritize sustainability in their housing choices.
Sources: Skanska, Focus on Business, National Association of REALTORS
11) More Chinese investors will be interested in Warsaw’s residential market
Chinese investors are increasingly eyeing Warsaw's residential market for its promising opportunities.
In recent years, Chinese investments in Poland have surged, jumping from $338 million in 2020 to a whopping $2.2 billion by the end of that year. This uptick is part of a broader trend where Chinese investors are keen on European real estate, and Poland is catching their attention.
Poland's appeal lies in its strategic location, offering easy access to Germany and other European markets. The country also boasts a low cost of skilled labor, making it an attractive spot for business ventures. On top of that, the Polish government sweetens the deal with grants and tax reliefs, creating a welcoming environment for investors.
Poland is a key player in the Belt and Road Initiative, with about 90% of trains on the China Europe Railway Express passing through or ending in the country. This positions Poland as a vital hub in global trade routes, making it ripe for investment. The presence of over 3,000 Chinese companies registered in Poland further underscores the strong ties and potential for collaboration with local real estate firms.
Warsaw, in particular, is becoming a hotspot for these investors. The city's growing infrastructure and vibrant economy make it a prime target for those looking to expand their real estate portfolios. With the Polish capital's investment potential on the rise, it's no wonder Chinese investors are taking notice.
As Warsaw continues to develop, the opportunities for real estate investment are only expected to grow. The combination of strategic location, government incentives, and a robust economy makes it a compelling choice for Chinese investors looking to make their mark in Europe.
Sources: Varso Invest, Antal Insights
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12) Demand for modern, compact apartments in central areas will grow as young professionals seek housing
Young professionals are increasingly moving to Warsaw for job opportunities, particularly in industries like technology, finance, and cybersecurity. This influx is evident from the growing number of English-speaking job listings in the city. As more young professionals arrive, the demand for housing that suits their lifestyle and work needs is rising.
The Build-to-Rent market in Poland, especially in Warsaw, has seen significant growth, with over 16,000 apartments made available by the end of 2023. This reflects a strong demand for rental properties in central urban areas, driven by young professionals who prefer the convenience and vibrancy of city living.
Young adults in Warsaw show a clear preference for urban living, drawn by the vibrant cultural scene, excellent public transportation, and diverse recreational facilities. Districts like Srodmiescie and Mokotow are particularly attractive due to their trendy atmosphere and proximity to amenities, which are highly valued by young professionals.
Surveys indicate that young professionals prioritize shorter commutes and proximity to amenities, making districts with well-developed public transport links, like Wola, highly sought after. Additionally, the trend towards compact living spaces is driven by affordability, with many young professionals opting for smaller, modern apartments due to their lower costs compared to larger properties.
Sources: English Jobs, Rent Your Nest, Knight Frank
13) Luxury property developments in Wilanów will increase, drawing in wealthy buyers
Wilanów is becoming a hotspot for luxury property developments, drawing in affluent buyers.
In recent years, Warsaw's luxury real estate market has been on the rise, with more high-net-worth individuals settling in Poland. This trend is evident in Wilanów, where there's a growing number of luxury property listings and sales. The demand for upscale living spaces is strong, making it a prime area for investment.
The new tram extension has made a big difference, connecting Wilanów directly to the city center. This improved connectivity is a major draw for affluent buyers who prioritize convenience. It's part of a larger urban planning effort to enhance upscale residential areas, boosting Wilanów's appeal even further.
Wilanów is also home to international schools like the British Primary School of Wilanów, which attracts expatriates and families with significant purchasing power. These families often look for luxury properties, adding to the area's demand. The neighborhood's high-end amenities, such as organic cafes and chic home design stores, perfectly match the lifestyle of its affluent residents.
With these factors in play, Wilanów is poised to see a surge in luxury property developments. The combination of improved infrastructure, international schools, and lifestyle amenities makes it an attractive option for those seeking upscale living.
As more affluent buyers are drawn to the area, Wilanów's real estate market is set to thrive, offering a blend of luxury and convenience that is hard to resist.
Sources: Hamilton May, Railway Pro, OurKids.net, PwC Emerging Trends in Real Estate, Le Figaro Properties
14) Warsaw’s property prices will keep rising because land is scarce
In Warsaw, residential property prices are climbing due to a shortage of available land for new developments.
Back in 2023 and 2024, housing demand in Warsaw far exceeded supply. Even with a near doubling of new flats by September 2024, it wasn't enough to satisfy the growing appetite for homes. This classic supply-demand mismatch naturally pushes property prices up.
Adding to the challenge, government restrictions on land use and zoning make it tough for developers to launch new projects. These regulations mean fewer new homes, so the demand for existing ones keeps rising, nudging prices higher.
Historically, Warsaw has seen steady property price hikes, and this trend is set to continue. Limited land, high occupancy rates, and increasing foreign investment all contribute to this upward trajectory.
For those considering buying property in Warsaw, it's crucial to understand that the city's land scarcity is a key driver of price increases. This scarcity, coupled with other market dynamics, creates a competitive environment for buyers.
As Warsaw continues to grow, the pressure on existing properties will likely intensify, making it a potentially lucrative market for investors.
Source: Global Property Guide
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Poland versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
15) Property prices in Ursynów will drop as younger buyers choose central areas
In recent years, we've seen a noticeable shift in the Warsaw real estate market, particularly affecting areas like Ursynów. One of the key indicators of this change is the decreasing demand for properties in Ursynów. For example, in 2023, the number of units sold in Ursynów was significantly lower compared to more central districts like the Tri-City area, which saw 9,000 units sold.
Surveys and market analyses from the past have shown that younger buyers in Warsaw have a strong preference for living in more central areas. This is largely due to the better job opportunities, cultural events, and lifestyle amenities available in districts like Mokotów and Śródmieście (City Centre). As a result, these areas have experienced a growing demand for properties.
Additionally, real estate listings in Ursynów tend to stay on the market longer than those in central areas, indicating a lower demand. This often leads to price drops as sellers become more willing to negotiate. Furthermore, demographic studies have shown a decline in the younger population in Ursynów, which aligns with the trend of younger buyers moving to more central locations.
Sources: Global Property Guide, Savills, Properstar
16) Suburban rental yields will drop as people choose to live near work and amenities
In recent years, we've seen a noticeable shift in where people prefer to live, especially in cities like Warsaw. As of 2024, Warsaw's population was on the rise, with projections estimating it would reach 2 million residents. This growth was fueled by urbanization and a significant influx of foreigners, including around 250,000 expatriates. Such a trend indicates a growing demand for urban living spaces.
Moreover, the pandemic led many to rethink their work-life balance, with surveys showing a preference for shorter commutes. This shift suggests that people are increasingly valuing the convenience of living closer to work and amenities. Additionally, Warsaw has been investing in urban infrastructure and amenities, such as improving public transportation and housing affordability, which further enhances the appeal of city living.
Another factor is the lifestyle preferences of younger generations, who often prioritize access to cultural, entertainment, and educational opportunities over having more space. Urban areas typically offer a wider range of these amenities, making them attractive to younger residents. Furthermore, media coverage frequently highlights the benefits of urban living, such as cultural diversity and job opportunities, which can influence people's residential choices.
Sources: Global Property Guide, Property Forum, OECD
17) Suburban property prices will dip slightly as urban living gains popularity
In recent years, we've seen a noticeable shift in housing trends, particularly in places like Warsaw. Urban living has become increasingly attractive, and this change is influencing housing prices in suburban areas. One of the main reasons for this shift is the rising demand for urban amenities and lifestyle. In 2023, Warsaw experienced a significant increase in housing prices, with the average price per square meter reaching PLN 13,318 (€ 3,109). This trend continued into 2024, with a 14.52% rise in prices from the previous year.
Another factor contributing to the appeal of urban living is the substantial investment in urban infrastructure and public transport. The European Union has heavily invested in extending Warsaw's metro line 2, which includes purchasing new trains and preparing for further extensions. This development aims to make public transport more efficient and environmentally friendly, making city living more convenient and attractive. Additionally, a loan from the EBRD and ING supports the expansion of Warsaw's metro network, further enhancing the city's infrastructure.
Consumer surveys have shown a clear preference for shorter commutes and city living, indicating that people are willing to pay more for the benefits of urban life. This preference is reflected in the rising housing costs in major cities. Demographic trends also show a younger population moving to urban centers, driven by the desire for better job opportunities and a vibrant lifestyle. This movement is likely to lead to a decline in suburban area prices as the demand shifts towards urban living.
Reports of new urban development projects and revitalization efforts in Warsaw highlight the city's focus on enhancing its appeal, which can further drive the preference for urban living. The growth of urban job opportunities compared to suburban areas is another factor contributing to the desirability of city life. Major cities like Warsaw offer a wide range of job opportunities, attracting residents away from suburban areas.
Sources: Global Property Guide, European Commission, Aparthotel, EBRD
While this article provides thoughtful analysis and insights based on credible and carefully selected sources, it is not, and should never be considered, financial advice. We put significant effort into researching, aggregating, and analyzing data to present you with an informed perspective. However, every analysis reflects subjective choices, such as the selection of sources and methodologies, and no single piece can encompass the full complexity of the market. Always conduct your own research, seek professional advice, and make decisions based on your own judgment. Any financial risks or losses remain your responsibility. Finally, please note that we are not affiliated to any of the sources provided. Our analysis remains then 100% impartial.