What are the price trends and forecasts in Split right now? (2026)

Split's property market in 2026 behaves like a supply-constrained coastal city, where tourism spillover and limited buildable land keep prices supported.

This article covers current housing prices in Split, neighborhood trends, and forecasts for 2026, 5 years, and 10 years, and we constantly update it with fresh data.

And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Split.

Fact-checked and reviewed by our local expert

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Nikki Grey 🇬🇧

CEO & Director, Europe Properties

With vast experience in European property investments, Nikki Grey is well-versed in the booming market of Split. As the CEO of Europe Properties, she provides investors with access to exclusive real estate in this Adriatic gem. From historic apartments in the Old Town to waterfront villas, she ensures buyers make informed and strategic investments.

Who is the author of this content?

INVESTROPA

A team specialized in real estate investing in European countries

We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Split. If you’d like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.

What are the current property price trends in Split as of 2026?

What is the average house price in Split as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the average transaction price for residential property in Split sits at approximately 4,000 euros per square meter (around 4,200 USD or 330,000 euros for a typical 80-square-meter apartment), blending apartments and houses across the city.

Listing prices typically reach around 5,100 euros per square meter, which is normal for a fast-moving coastal market where sellers start high and negotiate down.

The realistic price range covering roughly 80% of purchases in Split falls between 280,000 and 550,000 euros for apartments, and 450,000 to 1.2 million euros for houses and villas, depending on location, views, and condition.

How much have property prices increased in Split over the past 12 months?

Property prices in Split increased by an estimated 8% to 12% between January 2025 and January 2026, with prime coastal zones growing faster than outer residential neighborhoods.

Apartments saw increases closer to 10% to 13%, while houses and villas grew at 7% to 10%, reflecting higher price sensitivity for large-ticket purchases in a rising rate environment.

The most significant factor behind this movement was the persistent supply-demand imbalance: limited buildable land, ongoing tourism-driven investor appetite, and construction costs rising by roughly 10% meant insufficient new stock to satisfy buyer interest.

Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Split as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the three Split neighborhoods with fastest rising prices are Znjan (modern beachside developments), Bacvice/Firule (walkable beach access near center), and Meje (prestige scarcity near Marjan Hill).

Annual price growth in these neighborhoods ranges from 10% to 15%, with Znjan at the higher end due to new construction attracting families and investors.

The main demand driver is the convergence of walkable beach access, modern housing stock, and strong rental potential for both short-term tourists and longer-term tenants.

By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Split.

Which property types are increasing faster in value in Split as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the ranking by appreciation rate in Split is: (1) sea-view apartments with parking and modern layouts, (2) villas with privacy and rental potential, (3) family apartments in everyday neighborhoods, and (4) older renovation-needed stock.

Top-performing turnkey sea-view apartments appreciated by 12% to 15% over the past year, driven by strong buyer depth from local upgraders and international investors.

This property type outperforms because it combines highest liquidity with strongest lifestyle appeal, and many Split buyers are not full-time residents, prioritizing turnkey condition and views over square footage.

Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:

• How much should you pay for an apartment in Split?

What is driving property prices up or down in Split as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the top three factors driving Split property prices are: (1) supply constraints from limited buildable land, (2) tourism-backed demand supporting short-let economics, and (3) Croatia's eurozone membership improving financing conditions.

The strongest upward pressure comes from structural supply shortage: with construction costs rising 10% annually and only 16,500 new apartments built nationwide in 2024 (versus 25,000 in 2007), the market cannot produce enough housing for Split's demand.

If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Split here.

What is the property price forecast for Split in 2026?

How much are property prices expected to increase in Split in 2026?

As of early 2026, Split property prices are expected to increase by 4% to 7% over the full year, moderating from double-digit growth seen in 2024 and early 2025.

Forecasts range from a conservative 2% to 3% (if credit tightens and tourism softens) to an optimistic 8% to 10% (if ECB rates ease faster and coastal demand stays intense).

The main assumption underlying most forecasts is that supply remains constrained while tourism stays solid, with mortgage affordability now the main brake on how high bids can go.

We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Split.

Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Split in 2026?

As of early 2026, Split neighborhoods expected to see highest growth are Znjan/Duilovo, Stobrec, Firule/Bacvice/Zenta, and Meje/Marjan edge.

Projected growth for these areas ranges from 6% to 10%, with Znjan and Stobrec potentially higher due to new construction meeting modern buyer preferences.

The primary catalyst is infrastructure improvement around the port and center, combined with persistent preference for walkable, beach-adjacent locations with parking.

One emerging neighborhood that could surprise is Spinut, which offers strong residential utility at prices below prime coastal zones, attracting buyers priced out of Bacvice and Meje.

By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Split.

What property types will appreciate the most in Split in 2026?

As of early 2026, turnkey apartments with parking, outdoor space, and modern layouts in walkable locations are expected to appreciate most in Split.

Projected appreciation for these top-performing apartments is 6% to 9%, ahead of citywide average due to liquidity advantage and broad appeal.

The main demand trend is the shift toward ready-to-use housing: many Split buyers are not full-time residents, so they prioritize turnkey condition over renovation projects.

The property type expected to underperform is older, renovation-needed apartments in non-prime locations, because rising construction costs make renovations expensive and buyers prefer finished properties.

How will interest rates affect property prices in Split in 2026?

As of early 2026, interest rate trends are expected to moderate Split prices, particularly for mortgage-dependent buyers in outer neighborhoods, while prime coastal assets with more cash buyers remain less rate-sensitive.

The ECB's main refinancing rate sits at around 2.15% with expected stability through 2026, and Croatian mortgage rates have settled at 3.5% to 3.7%, well below pre-eurozone levels above 5%.

A 1% rate change typically affects affordability in Split by 8% to 10%, reducing or increasing the maximum loan amount buyers qualify for and directly impacting bid levels in the mid-market.

You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Croatia.

What are the biggest risks for property prices in Split in 2026?

As of early 2026, the top three risks for Split prices are: (1) tourism downturn or tighter short-term rental regulations, (2) credit tightening from the Croatian National Bank's July 2025 macroprudential measures, and (3) overbuilding in specific corridors like Znjan.

The highest-probability risk is continued mortgage affordability pressure, because even with stable ECB rates, the new household lending restrictions will keep some buyers out and slow transaction volumes.

We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Split.

Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Split in 2026?

As of early 2026, it is a reasonably good time to buy a rental property in Split, but only if the property works for both short-term tourists and long-term tenants, as relying solely on perfect short-let occupancy is risky.

The strongest argument for buying now is that supply remains structurally constrained, tourism demand shows no weakening, and mortgage rates at 3.6% are historically low for Croatia.

The strongest argument for waiting is that prices have risen significantly (up roughly 74% since 2020 nationally), and new lending restrictions plus potential rental regulations could create better buying opportunities later.

If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Split.

You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Split.

Where will property prices be in 5 years in Split?

What is the 5-year property price forecast for Split as of 2026?

As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Split over 5 years is expected to reach 20% to 30% nominally, assuming normalizing rates and steady tourism.

The range spans from a conservative 15% (if credit tightens and tourism softens) to an optimistic 35% to 40% (if ECB rates fall faster and foreign demand accelerates post-OECD membership).

The projected average annual appreciation is 3.7% to 5.4%, moderating from recent double-digit growth but remaining positive due to structural supply constraints.

The key assumption is that Croatia's macro fundamentals stay solid (GDP growth 2.5% to 3%, inflation converging to ECB target) and tourism continues without major regulatory disruptions.

Which areas in Split will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?

The top three areas expected to have best 5-year growth are Meje/Marjan edge (scarcity and prestige), Bacvice/Firule/Zenta (evergreen beach and center convenience), and Znjan/Duilovo (modern stock meeting demand).

Projected 5-year cumulative growth for these areas is 25% to 40%, with Meje potentially higher due to extreme scarcity.

This aligns with shorter forecasts, but over 5 years the compounding effect of scarcity becomes more pronounced in Meje, while Znjan's growth may moderate as new supply catches up.

The currently undervalued area with best outperformance potential is Stobrec, offering villa-style living with sea proximity at prices 20% to 30% below Znjan or Bacvice.

What property type will give the best return in Split over 5 years as of 2026?

As of early 2026, well-located, rentable apartments with modern layouts and parking are expected to give best 5-year returns, combining capital appreciation with consistent rental income and highest resale liquidity.

Projected 5-year total return (appreciation plus rental) for top apartments is 40% to 55%, assuming 25% to 35% capital growth and cumulative net yields of 15% to 20%.

The structural trend favoring this type is continued supply-demand mismatch: limited land, rising construction costs, and sustained tourism mean liquid, rentable apartments remain in short supply.

The best balance of return and lower risk comes from family apartments in neighborhoods like Spinut, Trstenik, or Firule, offering steadier appreciation with reliable long-term tenant income.

How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Split over 5 years?

The top three infrastructure projects impacting Split prices are: the 25 million euro Port of Split rehabilitation, the Resnik-Divulje Maritime Terminal in Kastela Basin, and national rail upgrades improving Split's connectivity.

Typical price premium near completed infrastructure in Split is 5% to 15%, with highest premiums in center-adjacent zones where port upgrades reduce congestion and improve walkability.

Neighborhoods benefiting most are the historic core and Riva-adjacent areas (port upgrades), Kastela and western approaches (new terminal), and Znjan/eastern corridors if public transport improves.

How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Split in 5 years?

Population dynamics in Split suggest modest natural growth combined with significant lifestyle migration inflows, supporting property demand, especially for modern, well-located housing.

The strongest demographic influence is rising smaller, higher-income households seeking quality-of-life upgrades, driving demand for larger apartments with outdoor space and modern family houses.

Migration patterns (domestic from inland Croatia, international from Western Europe) will positively affect values, as the city attracts digital nomads, retirees, and second-home buyers less price-sensitive than local first-timers.

Property types and areas benefiting most are modern apartments in family-friendly neighborhoods like Znjan, Stobrec, and Firule, plus renovated townhouses in Veli Varos appealing to authentic Dalmatian character seekers.

We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Croatia compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.

What is the 10 year property price outlook in Split?

What is the 10-year property price prediction for Split as of 2026?

As of early 2026, cumulative 10-year growth in Split is expected to reach 35% to 60% nominally, reflecting structural scarcity and global coastal desirability, though cycles of acceleration and cooling will occur.

The range spans from a conservative 25% to 30% (if Croatia faces economic headwinds or tourism declines) to an optimistic 70% to 80% (if eurozone integration deepens and supply stays constrained).

Projected average annual appreciation is 3% to 5%, representing sustainable long-term growth outpacing inflation while avoiding unsustainable recent boom rates.

The biggest uncertainty is future ECB rates and euro area credit conditions, as over a decade, financing costs and credit availability have historically dominated housing market cycles.

What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Split?

The top three long-term factors shaping Split prices are: (1) euro area interest rate regime, (2) Croatia's GDP and wage trajectory, and (3) tourism competitiveness as a Dalmatian coast gateway city.

The most positive long-term factor is Croatia's deepening eurozone integration, bringing lower financing costs, greater investment confidence, and easier foreign buyer access.

The greatest structural risk is potential tourism reversal from climate change, geopolitical instability, or shifting traveler preferences, as tourism underpins investor demand and short-let economics.

You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Split.

What sources have we used to write this blog article?

Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Split, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can... and we don't throw out numbers at random.

We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used and explained how we used them.

Source	Why It's Authoritative	How We Used It
Croatian Bureau of Statistics - House Price Indices	Croatia's official statistics agency with published methods.	We anchored national price trends and treated Split as coastal/Adriatic-driven.
DZS - Prices of Sold New Dwellings	Official achieved-price data for new dwelling transactions.	We grounded euro per square meter levels and reality-checked portal asking prices.
DZS - Tourist Arrivals and Nights	Official tourism statistics essential for Split's demand drivers.	We explained why Split behaves differently than inland cities and validated demand.
Croatian National Bank - Macroeconomic Projections	Central bank baseline for growth, inflation, and financial conditions.	We built 2026, 5-year, and 10-year scenarios and tested price growth trajectories.
HNB - Interest Rate Statistics	Central-bank-published banking statistics on borrowing costs.	We quantified mortgage affordability pressure and translated rate changes into demand shifts.
European Central Bank - Key Interest Rates	Primary source for euro area policy rates.	We explained the interest-rate channel and built top-down forecast assumptions.
European Commission - Croatia Forecast	EU's official macro forecast for Croatia.	We provided independent macro baseline and justified scenario paths.
Bank for International Settlements - Residential Property Prices	Global reference dataset used by central banks.	We cross-checked Croatia's trend versus peers and sanity-checked long-run assumptions.
Eurostat - House Price Index	Official EU statistical framework.	We kept terminology consistent and backed methodological explanations.
European Commission - Port of Split Project	EU-level project documentation for public investment.	We evidenced infrastructure uplift and linked it to benefiting areas.
Port Authority Split - Projects	Official port authority primary source.	We confirmed what's being built and its impact on property values.
Nekretnine.hr - Split Price Data	Transparent portal indicator at sub-area level.	We estimated current euro per square meter and triangulated with official data.
IMF - Croatia Country Page	International institution for macro cross-checks.	We provided third macro view and long-run risk framing.
Global Property Guide - Croatia	Independent research on rental yields and trends.	We validated rental yield assumptions (averaging 4.9%).
Broker Real Estate - Split Trends	Local agency with on-the-ground insights.	We validated neighborhood trends and buyer preferences.
Croatia Week - Property Price Analysis	English-language Croatian news with expert interviews.	We understood construction cost dynamics driving price growth.
Total Croatia News - Port Grant	News coverage of Split infrastructure investments.	We confirmed 25 million euro port grant details and timelines.
OECD - Croatia Economic Snapshot	International organization's economic analysis.	We validated GDP growth projections and cross-checked macro forecasts.