Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Norway Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Oslo's property market is included in our pack
We are constantly updating this blog post with fresh data to help you understand the Oslo housing market and whether now is the right time to buy.
In this article, we break down the current housing prices in Oslo, analyze supply and demand signals, and give you our honest assessment based on hard data.
Everything is written in plain language, so you can make your own informed decision without needing a finance degree.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Oslo.
So, is now a good time?
Our verdict is "rather yes" for January 2026, because while Oslo prices are not cheap, the fundamentals suggest a crash is unlikely and supply constraints will likely keep the market tight over the medium term.
The strongest signal supporting this view is that new construction in Oslo has fallen to historic lows, with only about 1,000 new homes expected to be completed in 2026, which means supply simply cannot catch up with demand anytime soon.
Another strong signal is that Norges Bank's lending regulations (a maximum debt of 5 times your income) prevent the kind of speculative bubble that leads to crashes, so prices are supported by real buying power rather than easy credit.
Other signals include Oslo's role as Norway's primary job market (which keeps demand structurally strong), rental vacancy rates below 2.5% (showing tenants are competing hard for units), and official forecasts of about 6% price growth nationally in 2026.
The best strategies for Oslo in 2026 include buying a well-located apartment in neighborhoods like Grunerløkka, Majorstuen, or Nydalen for long-term holding (5+ years), or targeting rental properties where vacancy is tight and rents are growing 6 to 8% annually.
Please note this is not financial or investment advice, we do not know your personal situation, and you should always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making any property purchase decision.
Is it smart to buy now in Oslo, or should I wait as of 2026?
Do real estate prices look too high in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, Oslo property prices sit around NOK 90,000 to 100,000 per square meter, which looks high in absolute terms but is explainable given that Oslo is Norway's main job market, migration magnet, and has persistently constrained supply.
One on-the-ground signal that supports a "stretched but not bubble" reading is that homes in Oslo still sell above asking price by about 3% on average, which tells you buyers are competing but not going crazy with 10 to 20% overbids like in true bubble markets.
Another signal is that typical selling time in Oslo's liquid segments remains around 40 to 50 days, neither extremely fast (panic buying) nor slow (price correction), suggesting the market is in a balanced-to-tight state rather than an unsustainable frenzy.
You can also read our latest update regarding the housing prices in Oslo.
Does a property price drop look likely in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated likelihood of a meaningful property price decline in Oslo over the next 12 months is low, because household balance sheets remain resilient, lending is tightly regulated, and Oslo's demand base is structurally strong.
That said, a plausible downside scenario could see Oslo prices drop 3 to 5% if rates stay high and unemployment rises unexpectedly, while the upside scenario could see gains of 6 to 10% if rate cuts materialize faster than expected and supply stays constrained.
The single most important macro factor that could increase the odds of a price drop in Oslo is interest rates staying at 4% or higher for longer than households expect, since most Norwegian mortgages are floating-rate and directly tied to Norges Bank's policy rate.
However, Norges Bank's own projections suggest one or two rate cuts are likely in the second half of 2026, with the policy rate potentially falling to around 3.5% by year-end, which makes a prolonged high-rate scenario less probable than it seemed a year ago.
Finally, please note that we cover the price trends for next year in our pack about the property market in Oslo.
Could property prices jump again in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated likelihood of a renewed price surge in Oslo is medium, because the ingredients for a jump (rate cuts plus constrained supply) are present, but Oslo has actually underperformed other Norwegian cities like Stavanger and Tromsø recently due to landlords selling rental units and adding to resale supply.
If conditions align favorably, Oslo prices could rise 6 to 10% over the next 12 months, with the official industry forecast from Eiendom Norge targeting about 6% nationally and Norges Bank projecting 6.3% for 2026.
The single biggest demand-side trigger that could drive prices to jump again in Oslo is rate cuts, because even one or two 0.25% reductions would meaningfully lower monthly mortgage payments and pull hesitant buyers off the sidelines.
Please also note that we regularly publish and update real estate price forecasts for Oslo here.
Are we in a buyer or a seller market in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, Oslo sits in a balanced-to-seller-leaning market, where interest rates cap how far buyers can stretch (preventing runaway bidding), but tight supply and strong rental pressure keep sellers confident in attractive neighborhoods like Frogner, Grunerløkka, and Majorstuen.
While precise months-of-inventory data for Oslo is hard to pin down, selling times around 40 to 50 days and homes selling above asking suggest inventory is tight enough to give sellers meaningful leverage, especially for well-located apartments under NOK 6 million.
Price reductions are not widespread in Oslo's most sought-after areas, though outer neighborhoods and larger family homes may see more negotiation room, which tells you seller confidence varies meaningfully by segment and location.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Norway. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Are homes overpriced, or fairly priced in Oslo as of 2026?
Are homes overpriced versus rents or versus incomes in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, Oslo homes look expensive but not wildly overpriced when you compare purchase costs to the high rents people actually pay, with gross rental yields around 3.5 to 4% being modest but not crazy for a supply-constrained capital city.
The estimated price-to-rent ratio in Oslo is around 26 to 28 (meaning it takes about 26 to 28 years of rent to equal the purchase price), which is above the 15 to 20 range you would see in a "balanced" market but typical for major European capitals with housing shortages.
The price-to-income multiple in Oslo is stretched, with typical apartments costing 8 to 10 times median household income, but Norway's strict lending rules (debt capped at 5 times gross income) mechanically prevent prices from floating into pure fantasy territory.
Finally please note that you will have all the indicators you need in our property pack covering the real estate market in Oslo.
Are home prices above the long-term average in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, Oslo prices are elevated compared to their long-term trend, but when you adjust for inflation, the picture looks less extreme than the headline numbers suggest, with real (inflation-adjusted) growth over the past year closer to 2 to 3% rather than the 6% nominal figure.
Over the past 12 months, Oslo housing prices rose about 4 to 5% nominally, which is moderate compared to the double-digit gains of 2020 to 2021 and broadly in line with the pre-pandemic pace of 4 to 6% annual growth.
In inflation-adjusted terms, Oslo prices remain below their 2022 peak, since high inflation in 2022 and 2023 eroded some of the nominal gains, which means buyers today are not necessarily paying more in "real" purchasing power than buyers two to three years ago.
Get fresh and reliable information about the market in Oslo
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What local changes could move prices in Oslo as of 2026?
Are big infrastructure projects coming to Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the biggest infrastructure project with potential to move Oslo property prices is the Fornebubanen (Fornebu Line), a major metro extension connecting central Oslo to the western business and residential corridor, which could lift demand around connected stations like Fornebu, Lysaker, and Skøyen.
The Fornebu Line is funded and under construction, with full completion expected around 2029, which means the price impact is already being priced in gradually near station locations, giving early buyers a chance to benefit before the line opens.
For the latest updates on the local projects, you can read our property market analysis about Oslo here.
Are zoning or building rules changing in Oslo as of 2026?
There is no single dramatic zoning rule change in Oslo in January 2026 that will flip the market overnight, but the city's planning process friction and slow pace of plan approvals continue to be a key bottleneck that limits how much new supply can actually get built.
As of early 2026, this planning friction keeps the resale market tighter than many expect, because even when Oslo's housing pipeline shows thousands of "approved" units, the time from approval to actual construction to completion can stretch 5 to 10 years.
If Oslo were to meaningfully speed up approvals or densify zoning in areas like Hovinbyen, Ensjø, or Løren, it could eventually add supply and moderate price growth, but such changes would take years to show up in actual completions.
Are foreign-buyer or mortgage rules changing in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, foreign-buyer and mortgage rules in Oslo are stable, with no major restrictions on foreigners buying standard residential property and no imminent policy changes that would significantly affect prices.
The most notable recent mortgage rule change is actually a loosening: from January 1, 2025, the minimum down payment dropped from 15% to 10%, which gives first-time buyers slightly more access and could add modest demand pressure over time.
On the constraint side, the debt-to-income cap of 5 times gross income remains firmly in place, and Finanstilsynet's mortgage survey shows borrowers are clustering near this limit, which tells you credit is policed and prices cannot run away on easy lending alone.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Norway.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Norway versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
Will it be easy to find tenants in Oslo as of 2026?
Is the renter pool growing faster than new supply in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, renter demand in Oslo is growing faster than new rental supply, driven by high purchase costs pushing people to rent longer, student and young professional inflows, and the fact that only about 1,000 new homes are expected to be completed in Oslo this year.
The best signal for renter demand is Oslo's consistently tight vacancy rate (around 1.5 to 2.5%) and rent growth of 6 to 8% annually, which tells you tenants are competing hard for limited units.
On the supply side, national housing starts have collapsed to about 18,800 units in 2024 (down 17.5% year-over-year and the lowest level since the late 1980s), and Oslo's share of that pipeline is shrinking, which means rental supply will stay constrained for years.
Are days-on-market for rentals falling in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated time to let a rental property in Oslo is around 10 to 20 days on average, with well-priced studios and 1-bedrooms in central neighborhoods like Grunerløkka or Majorstuen renting within 7 to 14 days.
The gap between "best areas" and weaker areas is meaningful: central Oslo units can rent in under two weeks, while family-sized apartments in outer areas like Groruddalen may take 20 to 30 days or longer.
One common reason days-on-market falls in Oslo is simple undersupply, since vacancy is so low that tenants snap up any reasonably priced unit quickly, especially during peak season (August and September) when students arrive.
Are vacancies dropping in the best areas of Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, vacancy rates in Oslo's best-performing rental areas like Frogner, Majorstuen, Grunerløkka, St. Hanshaugen, and Bjørvika are structurally low (estimated under 2%) and likely tightening further as new completions lag behind tenant demand.
These top areas consistently show vacancy well below the overall Oslo average (1.5 to 2.5%), because proximity to transit, jobs, and amenities creates intense competition for every available unit.
A practical sign that "best areas" are tightening first is when landlords in neighborhoods like Majorstuen or Sagene start receiving multiple applications within 24 hours of listing, which forces tenants to make quick decisions without negotiating rent down.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current rent levels in Oslo.
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An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Am I buying into a tightening market in Oslo as of 2026?
Is for-sale inventory shrinking in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, for-sale inventory in Oslo is not dramatically shrinking year-over-year because many landlords have been selling rental properties (due to tax changes and higher costs), which has kept resale supply higher than expected in the short term.
However, we are not fully confident in precise inventory figures, and the more important point is that the medium-term tightening risk is real: when construction activity is this weak, resale inventory eventually shrinks as homes get absorbed faster than new ones are built.
The main reason inventory could shrink over 2026 is simply that only about 1,000 new homes are expected to hit the Oslo market, which is far below the roughly 5,000 units the city needs annually to keep pace with demand.
Are homes selling faster in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated median time-to-sell for homes in Oslo's liquid segments (well-located apartments, reasonable pricing) is around 40 to 50 days, which is not dramatically faster or slower than 2025 but reflects a market that is functional rather than frenzied.
Year-over-year, selling times in Oslo have been relatively stable, with no major acceleration, as high interest rates keep buyers selective even while supply constraints keep the market from softening too much.
Are new listings slowing down in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, we are not confident that new listings are meaningfully slowing down year-over-year, since landlord sell-offs have actually boosted resale supply in some segments, but the seasonal pattern is normal with activity picking up in January after the holiday lull.
The typical seasonal pattern in Oslo sees listing activity ramp up in early January through spring, then peak again in late summer, and January 2026 appears to be following that pattern without unusual weakness or strength.
If new listings do slow later in 2026, the most plausible reason would be "rate lock-in" psychology, where existing owners with low mortgage rates hesitate to sell and take on a new loan at higher rates.
Is new construction failing to keep up in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, new construction is absolutely failing to keep up with demand in Oslo, with housing starts nationally at historic lows (about 18,800 units in 2024, down 17.5% year-over-year) and Oslo expecting only about 1,000 completions in 2026 against annual demand of roughly 5,000 units.
The recent trend in permits and starts is clearly negative, with 2024 starts representing the lowest level since the late 1980s banking crisis, and no major rebound is expected in 2026 given high construction costs, financing challenges, and slow planning processes.
The single biggest bottleneck limiting new construction in Oslo is a combination of elevated financing costs (developers face higher rates just like homebuyers) and the city's slow, friction-heavy planning and permitting process that stretches timelines by years.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Norway compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
Will it be easy to sell later in Oslo as of 2026?
Is resale liquidity strong enough in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, resale liquidity in Oslo is strong compared to most markets, because Oslo is Norway's core labor market and population center, which means there is always a base of buyers looking for well-located, reasonably priced homes.
The estimated median days-on-market for resale homes in Oslo is around 40 to 50 days in liquid segments, which compares favorably to the "healthy liquidity" benchmark of 60 to 90 days seen in many other European capital cities.
The property characteristics that most improve resale liquidity in Oslo are location near metro stations, building condition (well-maintained co-ops with manageable joint debt), and size in the 1 to 3 bedroom range that appeals to the largest pool of buyers.
Is selling time getting longer in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, selling time in Oslo has not lengthened dramatically compared to last year, remaining in the 40 to 50 day range for typical homes, though there is more variation than during the 2020 to 2021 boom when everything sold quickly.
The realistic range for selling time in Oslo today stretches from about 20 to 30 days for well-priced central apartments to 60 to 90 days for larger family homes or properties in less connected outer neighborhoods.
One clear reason selling time can lengthen in Oslo is affordability pressure, because when rates are high and buyers are stretched to their 5x income limit, they become pickier and negotiate harder, which slows down deals on overpriced or imperfect listings.
Is it realistic to exit with profit in Oslo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the likelihood of exiting with a profit in Oslo is medium to high if your holding period is long enough, because transaction costs are significant and short-term price volatility can easily wipe out gains on a quick flip.
The estimated minimum holding period that makes exiting with profit realistic in Oslo is 5 to 7 years, which gives prices enough time to grow past your transaction costs and absorb any short-term market wobbles.
The estimated total round-trip cost drag in Oslo (buying plus selling) is roughly 5 to 7% of the property value, including the 2.5% document duty (about NOK 125,000 on a NOK 5 million property, or roughly USD 12,300 / EUR 10,500), legal fees around 1%, and selling costs of 1 to 3%.
The factor that most increases profit odds in Oslo is buying below market value (which is rare but possible in off-market deals or estate sales) or targeting high-demand segments where rental income can offset holding costs while you wait for appreciation.
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What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Oslo, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why it's authoritative | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| Statistics Norway (SSB) - Price index for existing dwellings | Norway's official statistics agency with transparent transaction-based methodology. | We used it to anchor long-term price trends and validate whether Oslo prices are above or below historical norms. We also used their co-op debt inclusion rules to keep comparisons fair. |
| Norges Bank - Rate decision December 2025 | Norway's central bank, the authoritative source for interest rate policy. | We used it to anchor the current rate environment (4%) and rate cut expectations. We also used it to frame affordability risks and opportunities for buyers. |
| Norges Bank - Monetary Policy Report 4/2025 | The central bank's official macro and housing price projections. | We used it to triangulate 2026 price growth expectations (6.3% projected nationally). We treated it as the backbone for our macro scenario analysis. |
| Norges Bank - Financial Stability Report 2025-2 | The central bank's core assessment of household debt and housing vulnerabilities. | We used it to evaluate crash risk through the lens of leverage and resilience. We relied on it to avoid one-sided optimism about market stability. |
| SSB - Building activity (Byggeareal) | Official data on permits, starts, and completions from Norway's statistics agency. | We used it to judge whether new construction is keeping pace with demand. We relied on it heavily for our supply-side analysis. |
| SSB - Rental market survey (LMU) | Official survey measuring rents by geography and dwelling type. | We used it to anchor rent levels for price-to-rent calculations. We also used it to identify which Oslo neighborhoods command premium rents. |
| Finanstilsynet - Lending regulation | Norway's financial regulator, the rulebook for mortgage constraints. | We used it to explain what actually caps buying power (LTV and debt-to-income rules). We used it to assess whether demand could surge or is capped. |
| OBOS - Prices and statistics | Major housing cooperative with long-running, transparent Oslo statistics. | We used it as a high-frequency Oslo price signal, especially for the large co-op segment. We cross-checked that other indices align with OBOS data. |
| Oslo Municipality - Housing reserve | The city's official overview of planned homes in adopted zoning plans. | We used it to identify whether Oslo has approved supply sitting in the pipeline. We stress-tested "shortage" narratives against actual planned capacity. |
| Oslo Municipality - Fornebu Line | Official project page for Oslo's major metro expansion. | We used it as a concrete example of infrastructure that can shift housing demand. We avoided infrastructure hype by sticking to funded projects. |
| Eiendom Norge | Norway's real estate industry association with monthly market reports. | We used their 2026 price forecasts and market commentary. We cross-checked their data against official SSB figures for consistency. |
| Skatteetaten - Document duty | Norway's official tax authority explaining the 2.5% stamp duty. | We used it to quantify transaction friction and explain why short holding periods are risky. We included it in our round-trip cost calculations. |
We created this infographic to give you a simple idea of how much it costs to buy property in different parts of Norway. As you can see, it breaks down price ranges and property types for popular cities in the country. We hope this makes it easier to explore your options and understand the market.
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