Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Italy Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Florence's property market is included in our pack
Whether you are searching for a Renaissance apartment near the Arno or a family home in a quieter Florence neighborhood, understanding property prices is essential before making any decision.
This guide breaks down the current housing prices in Florence, what has been driving them recently, and where they might be headed over the next few years.
We constantly update this blog post to reflect the latest data and market shifts, so bookmark it if you want to stay informed.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Florence.
Insights
- Florence property prices jumped 8.6% in 2025, nearly double the Italian national average of 4.4%, making it one of Italy's strongest outperformers.
- The gap between Florence's most expensive neighborhood (Michelangelo/Porta Romana at 6,500 euros per sqm) and its cheapest (Ugnano/Mantignano at 3,400 euros per sqm) is almost double, creating big value differences across the city.
- Florence's new T3 tram line, under construction and due by late 2026, is expected to boost property values in the Gavinana and Bagno a Ripoli corridor by improving connectivity to the city center.
- Rental yields in Florence range from 5.2% to 7.7% depending on property size, with smaller apartments generally offering better returns than larger homes.
- Florence's strict short-term rental regulations, including the 2025 keybox ban and new licensing rules in the UNESCO zone, are pushing some investors toward long-term rentals instead.
- Mortgage rates in Italy dropped from 4.8% in 2023 to around 3.5% by late 2025, making buying more affordable and supporting continued price growth.
- Renovated, energy-efficient apartments in Florence sell at a premium of up to 8% over comparable properties needing work, as buyers factor in renovation costs and energy regulations.
- Florence is Italy's second most expensive city after Milan, with asking prices averaging around 4,700 euros per sqm as of late 2025.
What are the current property price trends in Florence as of 2026?
What is the average house price in Florence as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated average home price in Florence is around 340,000 euros (approximately 355,000 USD or 340,000 EUR), based on a typical 70 to 75 square meter apartment which is the most common purchase size in this dense Italian city.
To put this in perspective, the average price per square meter in Florence currently sits at approximately 4,650 to 4,700 euros (around 4,900 USD or 4,650 EUR), which makes Florence the second most expensive city in Italy after Milan.
In practical terms, about 80% of residential property purchases in Florence fall within a range of 180,000 to 550,000 euros (roughly 190,000 to 575,000 USD), with smaller apartments in outer neighborhoods at the lower end and renovated properties near the historic center at the higher end.
How much have property prices increased in Florence over the past 12 months?
Property prices in Florence have increased by approximately 8.6% over the past 12 months, which is notably stronger than the Italian national average of around 4.4% for the same period.
This growth has not been uniform across all property types, with renovated apartments in desirable locations seeing increases of 9% to 10%, while properties needing significant renovation have grown more slowly at around 5% to 6%.
The single most significant factor behind this price movement has been the severe scarcity of available properties in the most desired Florence neighborhoods, combined with sustained demand from both Italian buyers and international investors seeking a foothold in this historic city.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Florence as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the three Florence neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices are Oltrarno (including Santo Spirito and San Frediano), Campo di Marte, and the Gavinana/Lungarno Colombo corridor in the southeast of the city.
Oltrarno has seen annual price growth of approximately 10% to 12%, Campo di Marte around 8% to 10%, and Gavinana roughly 7% to 9%, all outpacing the city average.
The main demand driver across these neighborhoods is a combination of lifestyle appeal (walkability, local character, restaurants and artisan shops) and, in the case of Gavinana, anticipation of improved connectivity from the T3 tram line currently under construction.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Florence.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Italy. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Which property types are increasing faster in value in Florence as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the ranking of property types by appreciation rate in Florence places renovated apartments in the lead, followed by penthouses and top-floor units, then townhouses, and finally villas and larger detached homes which have grown more slowly.
Well-maintained, energy-efficient apartments in desirable Florence locations have appreciated by roughly 9% to 11% over the past year, the strongest performance among all residential categories.
The main reason apartments are outperforming is that they match what most Florence buyers actually want: manageable size, lower maintenance costs, strong rental potential, and locations where daily life is walkable, which are all characteristics that larger properties outside the city core cannot easily offer.
Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
- How much do properties cost in Florence?
- How much should you pay for an apartment in Florence?
- How much should you pay for a studio in Florence?
What is driving property prices up or down in Florence as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the top three factors driving property prices in Florence are chronic housing scarcity in central and semi-central neighborhoods, tourism-related demand pressures combined with new short-term rental restrictions, and major infrastructure upgrades including the T3 tram expansion.
The factor with the strongest upward pressure is undoubtedly the limited supply of quality housing in Florence's most sought-after areas, where strict building regulations and historic preservation rules prevent new construction and keep available inventory extremely tight.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Florence here.
Get fresh and reliable information about the market in Florence
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What is the property price forecast for Florence in 2026?
How much are property prices expected to increase in Florence in 2026?
As of early 2026, property prices in Florence are expected to increase by approximately 2.5% to 5% over the course of this year, a moderation from the strong 8.6% growth seen in 2025.
Different analysts offer a range of forecasts, with conservative estimates around 2% to 3% annual growth and more optimistic projections reaching 5% to 7%, particularly for well-located apartments in high-demand neighborhoods.
The main assumption underlying most forecasts is that mortgage rates will remain stable or edge slightly lower, keeping buyer demand healthy without triggering another surge that could overheat the market.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Florence.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Florence in 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth in Florence are Gavinana/Lungarno Colombo, Campo di Marte, Statuto/Piazza della Libertà, and parts of Rifredi/Careggi near the university and hospital complex.
These areas are projected to see price growth of 5% to 8% during 2026, above the city average, as improved transport links and relative affordability compared to the historic center attract more buyers.
The primary catalyst is the ongoing construction of the T3 tram line, which will connect these southeastern and northern neighborhoods to central Florence much more efficiently when completed by late 2026.
One emerging neighborhood that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth is Rovezzano, which sits along the planned extension of the T3 line toward the Campo di Marte stadium area and currently offers lower entry prices.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Florence.
What property types will appreciate the most in Florence in 2026?
As of early 2026, the property type expected to appreciate the most in Florence is the renovated, energy-efficient apartment in well-connected neighborhoods slightly outside the historic core.
These turnkey apartments are projected to appreciate by 5% to 8% during 2026, outperforming other segments as buyers prioritize move-in-ready homes that require no immediate renovation work.
The main demand trend driving this appreciation is the growing importance of energy efficiency ratings and the desire to avoid renovation costs and delays, especially given rising construction material prices and stricter building regulations in Florence.
The property type expected to underperform is unrenovated apartments in older buildings with poor energy ratings, as buyers increasingly discount these properties to account for mandatory upgrades and the uncertainty of renovation timelines in a historic city.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Italy versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How will interest rates affect property prices in Florence in 2026?
As of early 2026, the impact of current interest rate trends on Florence property prices is moderately supportive, as the ECB's deposit rate sits at 2.0% following the easing cycle that brought rates down from their 2023 peaks.
The current benchmark rate is expected to remain stable through most of 2026, with Italian mortgage rates having fallen from around 4.8% in 2023 to approximately 3.5% by late 2025, making home purchases more affordable.
A 1% change in interest rates typically affects Florence property affordability significantly, with estimates suggesting that each percentage point reduction in mortgage rates enables buyers to afford roughly 8% to 10% more property value while keeping monthly payments constant.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Italy.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Florence in 2026?
As of early 2026, the three biggest risks for property prices in Florence are a broader economic slowdown that reduces buyer confidence, an affordability ceiling after 2025's strong price run, and regulatory uncertainty around short-term rental rules that could affect investor appetite.
The risk with the highest probability of materializing is the affordability constraint, as prices have risen faster than local incomes and some potential buyers may simply be priced out, leading to longer selling times and modest price corrections in the more expensive segments.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Florence.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Florence in 2026?
As of early 2026, it is generally a favorable time to buy a long-term rental property in Florence, provided you select a well-located, good-condition apartment in a neighborhood with strong tenant demand from students, professionals, or families.
The strongest argument in favor of buying now is that Florence's rental demand remains robust due to constrained housing supply, a large university population, and the city's enduring appeal to professionals who cannot or choose not to buy, all of which support healthy occupancy rates and stable rental income.
The strongest argument for waiting is that if you are targeting short-term tourist rentals, the regulatory environment has become increasingly restrictive in Florence's historic center, with new licensing requirements and bans on keyboxes that add complexity and risk to this investment strategy.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Florence.
You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Florence.
Buying real estate in Florence can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Where will property prices be in 5 years in Florence?
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Florence as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Florence over the next 5 years is expected to reach approximately 13% to 22%, depending on economic conditions and local market dynamics.
The range of forecasts spans from a conservative scenario of around 13% to 15% total growth (if the economy slows or affordability constraints bite harder) to an optimistic scenario of 20% to 22% (if interest rates fall further and demand remains strong).
This translates to a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 2.5% to 4.0% per year over the 2026 to 2030 period for Florence residential property.
The key assumption most forecasters rely on for their 5-year predictions is that Florence will continue to benefit from chronic housing scarcity in its most desirable areas, combined with sustained international interest and completed infrastructure improvements.
Which areas in Florence will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The top three areas in Florence expected to have the best price growth over the next 5 years are the Gavinana/Florence South corridor (benefiting from the T3 tram), Campo di Marte/Coverciano (strong residential appeal), and Novoli/Porta al Prato/San Jacopino (station-area transformation potential).
These top-performing areas are projected to see 5-year cumulative price growth of 18% to 28%, above the city average, as infrastructure improvements compound over time and relative value attracts buyers priced out of the historic center.
This differs slightly from our shorter 2026 forecast because over 5 years, infrastructure projects that are only under construction now will be completed and fully operational, magnifying their impact on property values in ways that take time to materialize.
The currently undervalued area with the best potential for outperformance over 5 years is Rifredi/Careggi, where the hospital and university ecosystem generates consistent demand but current prices remain 30% to 40% below the city center.
What property type will give the best return in Florence over 5 years as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the property type expected to give the best total return over 5 years in Florence is a well-maintained two-bedroom apartment in a liquid neighborhood just outside the historic core, such as Campo di Marte or Rifredi.
The projected 5-year total return for this property type, combining capital appreciation and rental income, is approximately 35% to 50%, assuming moderate price growth of 3% to 4% annually plus gross rental yields of around 5% to 6%.
The main structural trend favoring this property type is that it matches the sweet spot of Florence demand: affordable enough for young professionals and families, rentable to students or workers, and liquid enough to sell without extended time on market.
For investors seeking a balance of return and lower risk over 5 years, a small one-bedroom or studio apartment in a well-served neighborhood offers slightly lower absolute returns but greater liquidity and tenant demand stability.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Florence over 5 years?
The top three major infrastructure projects expected to impact Florence property prices over the next 5 years are the T3 tram line (connecting Piazza della Libertà to Bagno a Ripoli), the planned T4 tram line extension, and the high-speed rail "Passante" project that will increase train capacity through Florence.
Properties near completed infrastructure projects in Florence typically command a price premium of 5% to 15% compared to similar properties without the same transport access, based on patterns observed after the T1 and T2 tram lines opened.
The specific neighborhoods that will benefit most from these developments are Gavinana, Campo di Marte, and Bagno a Ripoli from the T3 tram, and Novoli and Piagge from the planned T4 extension and improved rail connectivity.
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Florence in 5 years?
Florence's projected population is expected to remain relatively stable or grow modestly over the next 5 years, but the impact on property values will be significant because household sizes are shrinking, which means more housing units are needed even without major population growth.
The demographic shift with the strongest influence on Florence property demand is the combination of an aging local population (28% over 65) and continued inflows of students, young professionals, and international residents seeking the city's quality of life.
Migration patterns, including both domestic Italians relocating from other regions and international buyers from the United States, UK, and northern Europe, are expected to continue supporting demand in Florence's mid-to-upper market segments over the next 5 years.
The property types and areas that will benefit most from these demographic trends are two-bedroom apartments in walkable neighborhoods (appealing to professionals and small households) and accessible ground-floor or elevator-served units in established residential areas (appealing to the aging population).
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Italy compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Florence?
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Florence as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Florence over the next 10 years is expected to reach approximately 22% to 41%, reflecting the city's long-term fundamentals as a globally desirable, supply-constrained heritage destination.
The range of 10-year forecasts spans from a conservative scenario of around 22% to 28% total growth to an optimistic scenario of 35% to 41%, depending heavily on how the broader Italian economy performs and whether housing supply constraints persist.
This translates to a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 2.0% to 3.5% per year over the 2026 to 2035 period, representing steady compounding rather than dramatic spikes.
The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year property price predictions for Florence is the evolution of tourism regulation and how it reshapes the balance between residential housing, short-term rentals, and the city's overall livability for permanent residents.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Florence?
The top three long-term economic factors that will shape property prices in Florence over the next decade are the euro-area interest rate regime, Italy's overall economic growth trajectory, and the evolution of tourism and short-term rental regulation in the city.
The single factor likely to have the most positive long-term impact on Florence property values is the city's enduring scarcity of buildable land and strict historic preservation rules, which structurally limit new housing supply and support prices regardless of economic cycles.
The factor posing the greatest structural risk to long-term Florence property values is Italy's sluggish economic growth outlook, as persistent low GDP growth (projected at under 1% annually) constrains local purchasing power and could eventually limit how much prices can rise.
You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Florence.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Florence, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can... and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why it's authoritative | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| Immobiliare.it | Italy's largest property portal with consistent city-level price data and neighborhood breakdowns. | We used it as our Florence-specific current snapshot for price per sqm and zone-level differences. We treated it as asking-price data and adjusted slightly for transaction estimates. |
| Agenzia delle Entrate (OMI) | Italian government's official housing market report based on administrative transaction records. | We used it to anchor our analysis in official market structure. We triangulated Florence portal trends against this broader official context. |
| ISTAT | Italy's national statistics institute providing the official residential price index (IPAB). | We used IPAB to benchmark Florence's growth against Italy-wide housing price trends. We used it to avoid over-relying on asking prices. |
| Bank of Italy | Italy's central bank, providing housing market surveys on demand, discounts, and expectations. | We used it to interpret why prices move and to shape our 2026 risk discussion. We used it as a credit conditions cross-check for Florence. |
| European Central Bank | Sets euro-area policy rates that directly affect mortgage costs across Italy. | We used it to explain the interest-rate channel and frame 2026 scenarios. We paired it with Italy mortgage data to translate policy into household affordability. |
| Eurostat | EU's official statistics office providing harmonized cross-country housing indicators. | We used it to contextualize Italy and Florence versus broader EU property price trends. We used it as a second official price lens. |
| Tecnocasa Group | One of Italy's largest brokerage networks with a long-running research office. | We used it to ground near-term expectations for large Italian cities. We then moderated and extended that logic into our Florence 2026 forecast. |
| City of Florence | The municipality's official portal for local demographic and statistical publications. | We used it for local fundamentals like population and household trends. We used it to ensure our Florence narrative is locally grounded. |
| Firenze Tramvia | Official project site for Florence's tram network expansion. | We used it to identify where infrastructure is progressing and when works started. We mapped likely benefit areas to specific neighborhoods. |
| Il Post | Major Italian outlet known for careful explainers on infrastructure and policy topics. | We used it to support the narrative that Florence is upgrading rail capacity. We treated it as infrastructure context rather than price data. |
| Reuters | Top-tier international wire service, reliable for policy and regulatory facts with dates. | We used it as evidence that Florence is actively enforcing short-term rental measures. We linked that to demand shifts between short and long-term rentals. |
| Idealista | Major European property portal whose news pieces summarize official city decisions. | We used it to add Florence-specific detail on where rental restrictions apply. We treated it as secondary reporting supported by Reuters and city sources. |
| Global Property Guide | International property research firm providing consistent cross-country price and yield data. | We used it for rental yield comparisons across Italian cities. We used it to benchmark Florence returns against national averages. |
| The Local Italy | English-language news outlet covering Italian market developments for international readers. | We used it for 2026 forecast context from Scenari Immobiliari and market analyst commentary. We cross-referenced with other sources. |
| Esales International | Property investment platform providing institutional-grade Italian market analysis. | We used it for professional 2026 market predictions and sector-level insights. We incorporated their macro outlook into our scenario framework. |
| European Commission Urban Mobility Observatory | EU institution tracking sustainable transport projects across member states. | We used it to verify Florence tram expansion details and funding sources. We confirmed construction timelines for our infrastructure analysis. |
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If you want to go deeper, you can read the following: