Get all the data you need about the real estate market in Dublin
SUMMARY
Yes. Property prices in Dublin are still more likely to rise than fall from here, but probably at a slower pace than during the recent surge.
The market has already shifted down a gear. Dublin residential prices are 4.6% higher than a year ago, compared with 8.3% growth at the end of 2024, so the direction remains positive while the pace has almost halved.
What keeps the market firm is that the shortage has not disappeared. Dublin added roughly 29,700 residents in a year, resale inventory remains thin, and completed housing is only just keeping pace with rough estimates of new household demand.
Buyer behaviour also looks stronger than the headline slowdown suggests. Dublin homes were recently selling around 9–10% above their original asking prices, which is hard to square with a market where buyers have suddenly gained much bargaining power.
Apartments are currently doing better than houses, rising 7.0% year on year versus 3.9%. That probably reflects the affordability funnel: buyers priced out of family houses are still able to compete for lower-ticket apartments.
Affordability is becoming the main constraint on how fast Dublin can rise. With a median home around €500,000 and mortgage borrowing still linked tightly to household income, repeated 8–10% annual gains would quickly leave too many buyers behind.
The large development pipeline is the clearest medium-term threat to strong appreciation. Tens of thousands of homes have permission and more than 24,000 apartments are actively under construction, but those numbers only matter once projects actually become completed homes.
Dublin also looks expensive on a fundamental basis. ESRI estimates Irish residential property at roughly 17% above levels implied by incomes, interest rates and demographics, which makes the market more vulnerable to weaker employment, higher borrowing costs or a genuine improvement in supply.
A repeat of the post-2008 collapse still looks unlikely on the evidence available today. Credit is far more constrained, household leverage is less extreme and Dublin is dealing with housing scarcity rather than the obvious construction excess that preceded the previous crash.
Our base case is therefore low-to-mid single-digit nominal growth over the next few years, with affordable apartments and well-connected mid-market properties having the clearest path to further gains. A broad fall probably needs a much stronger shock than Dublin is experiencing today.
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Will Dublin property prices keep rising from here?
Yes. Dublin property prices are still more likely to rise than fall from here, although we expect the pace to be much slower than during the recent surge.
The latest CSO property-price data puts Dublin residential prices 4.6% above a year earlier. Houses were up 3.9%, while apartments rose 7.0%. Prices are therefore still moving higher today, but the speed has cooled sharply. Dublin finished 2024 with annual growth of 8.3%, so the current 4.6% rate is almost half as fast.
That slowdown changes the outlook. Dublin still has a housing shortage, a growing population and aggressive competition for properties that reach the market. MyHome's latest quarterly report found Dublin homes selling at median premiums of roughly 9–10% above their original asking prices in May and June. Buyers are clearly still there.
The harder question is how much further prices can run when Dublin housing is already expensive and mortgage borrowing remains tied closely to income. Recent ESRI research estimates Irish residential prices at around 17% above levels suggested by incomes, interest rates and demographics.
We therefore expect further nominal price growth, most likely in the low-to-mid single digits in a normal economic environment. Another stretch of 8–10% annual Dublin growth would probably require something stronger, such as unusually fast wage growth, cheaper financing or another major squeeze on available housing.
| Dublin indicator | Latest picture | Previous context | What it says about prices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential prices | +4.6% YoY | +8.3% at end-2024 | Still rising, clearly slower |
| House prices | +3.9% YoY | Positive | Moderate upward pressure |
| Apartment prices | +7.0% YoY | Faster than houses | Stronger lower-ticket demand |
| Dublin asking prices | +4.5% YoY | +3.8% QoQ | Sellers still have pricing power |
| Sale premium | 9–10% above asking | Strong buyer competition | Positive |
| Estimated Irish overvaluation | ~17% | >40% before 2008 crash | Limits how far prices can stretch |
Why could Dublin property prices rise even though homes already feel so expensive?
Dublin property prices can keep rising because the number of people who need housing is still growing faster than the city is comfortably absorbing them.
The latest CSO population estimate puts Dublin at almost 1.60 million residents, after an increase of roughly 29,700 people in one year. That works out at around 2,500 extra residents per month.
Housing demand does not translate one-for-one from population because people share homes, live with family or join existing households. Even using a rough household size of 2.5 people, however, another 29,700 residents would represent housing demand equivalent to nearly 12,000 dwellings.
Dublin completed 5,717 new homes during the first half of the year. Annualising six months of construction would put delivery at roughly 11,400 units, almost exactly the rough number required to house one year's additional population under that simplified assumption.
And Dublin started with a shortage already in place.
High prices have not cured the market. Buyers can become less able to pay while the underlying competition for somewhere to live remains intense.
Get fresh and reliable data on the Dublin property market
New apartments are priced against what an institution will pay for a whole block rather than what one buyer should. Where asking prices sit furthest from what places actually earn and resell for.
Is Dublin property price growth actually slowing now?
Yes. Dublin property prices are still going up today, but the slowdown is large enough that we should stop treating the market as if it were still in its previous acceleration phase.
Official annual Dublin price growth has fallen to 4.6%. It was 5.0% one month earlier and 8.3% at the end of 2024. Across Ireland, the latest 5.6% annual increase was also the weakest national reading since early 2024.
MyHome's data tells a similar story from another angle. Dublin asking prices increased 4.5% over the year, yet its analysts described transaction prices during the opening months of the year as having their softest start since 2020.
Then buyers came back strongly into the spring market, pushing Dublin sale prices around 9–10% above asking in May and June.
It is a choppier market than the annual headline suggests. Growth has cooled substantially, but demand has not broken. For now, slower growth fits the evidence much better than the start of a sustained decline.
Has Dublin property already become historically expensive?
Yes. Dublin property is already above its previous boom-era peak, which means buyers today are paying historically high nominal prices rather than entering during a recovery from depressed values.
The CSO's Dublin residential index is currently 10.9% above its February 2007 peak. It has risen by roughly 175% from the 2012 trough.
The latest median transaction price across Dublin is around €500,000. Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown is far higher, at roughly €682,000, while Blackrock's A94 Eircode recently recorded a median above €850,000.
This makes future price increases harder than those seen during the post-crisis rebound. A €400,000 home gaining 10% adds €40,000. The same 10% increase on a €700,000 property adds €70,000, while household incomes rarely move by anything close to that amount in a single year.
That arithmetic is starting to bite.
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Are Dublin homes too expensive to keep rising?
Dublin homes are expensive enough to slow future price growth, but affordability has not yet become strong enough to reverse the market.
The newest ESRI analysis is particularly useful here. Looking across several valuation methods, its researchers estimate that Irish residential prices are currently around 17% above levels consistent with economic fundamentals including household income, interest rates and demographics.
That is a serious warning. It does not mean prices should simply fall 17%.
The same ESRI research estimates that overvaluation exceeded 40% around the pre-crash peak in 2006. Today's housing system also has much tighter lending rules and considerably lower indicators of credit excess.
Affordability should therefore work more like a brake than an automatic crash trigger.
A household earning €100,000 illustrates the problem. Under the standard Central Bank first-time-buyer limit of four times gross income, the normal mortgage ceiling is €400,000. Buying a €500,000 Dublin home would require €100,000 of the purchase price to come from the buyer rather than that standard mortgage limit.
As properties move farther beyond what incomes can finance, the pool of people able to place the next bid becomes smaller.
| Gross household income | Standard FTB mortgage at 4× income | Price with a 10% deposit | Gap versus €500k Dublin home |
|---|---|---|---|
| €70,000 | €280,000 | ~€311,000 | ~€189,000 |
| €90,000 | €360,000 | €400,000 | €100,000 |
| €100,000 | €400,000 | ~€444,000 | ~€56,000 |
| €120,000 | €480,000 | ~€533,000 | Above €500k |
| €150,000 | €600,000 | ~€667,000 | Above €500k |
Is Dublin building enough homes to stop prices rising?
No. Dublin is building a meaningful amount of housing, but current completions still look too inconsistent to remove the shortage quickly.
The CSO counted 3,180 new Dublin dwellings in Q2. That was 16.4% fewer than in the same quarter a year earlier. Q1 had gone the other way, with 2,537 completions and strong annual growth.
Together, the first two quarters produced 5,717 Dublin homes.
That output is far better than the very low construction levels Ireland experienced after the financial crisis. The issue today is scale. Dublin has close to 1.6 million residents, added almost 30,000 people over the latest year and still carries years of accumulated undersupply.
The type of housing being delivered is also striking. Apartments accounted for 3,837 of the 5,717 first-half Dublin completions, or about two-thirds. In Dublin City itself, more than 91% of Q2 completions were apartments.
Supply is coming through, particularly in higher-density housing. We simply have not reached the point where completed units are consistently overwhelming demand.
| Dublin completions | Q1 | Q2 | First half |
|---|---|---|---|
| All new dwellings | 2,537 | 3,180 | 5,717 |
| Apartments | 1,831 | 2,006 | 3,837 |
| Other dwellings | 706 | 1,174 | 1,880 |
| YoY change in total completions | +34.0% | -16.4% | Mixed |
| Apartment share | 72% | 63% | 67% |
The areas and new schemes in Dublin that are most overpriced
New apartments are priced against what an institution will pay for a whole block rather than what one buyer should. Where asking prices sit furthest from what places actually earn and resell for.
Could Dublin's big housing pipeline eventually cool property prices?
Yes. Dublin's construction pipeline is probably the clearest medium-term threat to continued rapid price growth, although the homes still have to be completed before they can really change the market.
The Department of Housing's Dublin pipeline review found 32,085 homes either already built or under construction across 205 active sites, alongside a stock of 77,909 residential units with planning permission.
Activity is genuinely moving beyond paperwork. The number of active planning permissions had risen 9.4% year on year, while activated apartment permissions increased 13%.
That gives Dublin considerably more future supply than today's completion numbers alone suggest.
There is a weaker reading farther upstream, though. CSO figures show only 1,452 Dublin dwellings received planning permission in Q1, down 34% from a year earlier. Apartment approvals fell to 1,064 and house approvals to 388.
One quarter of planning approvals can swing wildly when a handful of large schemes are approved or delayed, so that decline should not carry too much weight on its own. It does remind us why the giant headline pipeline should not be treated as 78,000 homes about to arrive at once.
If Dublin can turn today's pipeline into 15,000 or more completions year after year while population growth slows, property-price inflation should cool substantially. We are not there yet.
Why are Dublin apartment prices rising faster than house prices?
Dublin apartment prices are currently rising faster because apartments sit closer to the price range that many buyers can still finance.
The latest official figures show apartment prices up 7.0% year on year, versus 3.9% for Dublin houses. That gap is large enough to deserve attention.
Affordability offers a plausible explanation. A household that cannot stretch to a €600,000 family house may still be able to compete for a €350,000 or €400,000 apartment. First-time buyers are especially sensitive to that difference because mortgage limits are linked to income.
The interesting part is that apartment construction is also relatively strong. As seen above, roughly two-thirds of Dublin's first-half completions were apartments. More supply would normally take some heat out of that market.
So far, demand at reachable price points appears to be absorbing those units.
That may change as thousands of apartments already in the development pipeline are completed. For now, though, the apartment market tells us something useful about Dublin: buyers are moving down the price ladder rather than disappearing from it.
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Are Dublin buyers still fighting over homes today?
Yes. Dublin buyers are still paying enough above asking prices to show that competition remains intense for good properties.
MyHome found a median Dublin premium of roughly 9–10% above the original asking price in May and June. On a home listed at €450,000, a 9% premium means another €40,500. At €550,000, it adds almost €50,000.
That is difficult to square with a market where buyers have suddenly gained the upper hand.
There is a little more choice than before. MyHome had 14,200 properties listed nationally in June, compared with 12,600 a year earlier, and first-half new listings were up 1.3%.
Even after that improvement, existing-stock liquidity was only about 2% of Ireland's estimated 2.2 million homes. MyHome described it as the weakest rate since 2014.
A thin resale market can keep producing bidding wars even when overall demand cools slightly. Dublin does not need every potential buyer to remain active. It only needs enough buyers chasing a small number of attractive listings.
Are mortgage rates still hurting Dublin property prices?
Mortgage rates are still expensive enough to squeeze Dublin buyers, but they are no longer rising in a way that should force property prices down.
The Central Bank's latest available figure puts the average rate on new Irish mortgage agreements at 3.49%. That was 11 basis points lower than a year earlier and almost identical to the euro-area average.
For a €400,000 mortgage over 30 years, a rate around 3.5% gives a monthly repayment of roughly €1,800. Borrowing €500,000 pushes that close to €2,250 before insurance, maintenance and other ownership costs.
Those payments are heavy, especially alongside Dublin's already-high purchase prices.
Yet buyers are adapting to this rate environment. New mortgage agreements reached €1.1 billion in the latest reported month, up 9% from a year earlier. House-purchase lending outstanding was also growing 5.7% annually by the following month.
Credit is still reaching the market.
The fact that 93% of new mortgage agreements were fixed-rate also reduces the immediate risk of existing borrowers suddenly being hit by large monthly-payment increases.
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Could cheaper mortgages push Dublin prices up again?
Yes. Cheaper mortgages would give Dublin property prices another boost, although lending limits should prevent lower rates from turning into unlimited bidding power.
A decline in mortgage rates reduces monthly repayments and helps more households pass bank affordability tests. In a market where homes are already scarce, part of that benefit can quickly be reflected in higher bids.
Ireland's mortgage rules place an important ceiling on the effect. First-time buyers are generally limited to four times gross income, while second and subsequent buyers are normally capped at 3.5 times.
A couple earning €100,000 therefore cannot simply borrow €500,000 because interest rates fall. Their standard first-time-buyer loan-to-income ceiling remains €400,000.
Central Bank research into the 2023 relaxation of first-time-buyer lending limits gives us a useful real-world example. When the permitted income multiple increased, borrowers in the Greater Dublin Area used part of that extra capacity to buy more expensive homes.
Cheaper borrowing would probably work in the same direction today. It would support prices, especially around the affordable and mid-market segments, without recreating the free-flowing credit conditions of the pre-2008 period.
Can Dublin salaries keep up with property prices?
Probably not if Dublin property prices return to sustained high-single-digit growth.
Irish household incomes are rising, which is one reason buyers have managed to absorb higher prices so far. The latest CSO household-income survey recorded median nominal disposable household income growth of 4.7%, with real growth of 2.4% after inflation.
Dublin property prices, meanwhile, rose 8.3% during 2024 and are still gaining 4.6% annually now.
When housing repeatedly rises faster than income, buyers have only a few ways to close the gap: larger deposits, two strong salaries, family support, cheaper property types or a move farther from the centre.
Mortgage regulations prevent debt from endlessly filling that gap.
This is where the case for strong long-term price appreciation gets weaker. A few years of 3–5% nominal housing growth can coexist with similar income growth. Repeated 8–10% increases would push many Dublin properties beyond what ordinary professional households can borrow.
Affordability is therefore likely to shape the speed of the next rise more than the direction.
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Could Dublin property crash like it did after 2008?
A 2008-style Dublin property crash looks unlikely under current conditions because today's market has much less credit excess and far less obvious housing oversupply.
The newest ESRI study gives us a useful comparison. Its composite models put current Irish residential overvaluation around 17%. The estimated peak before the financial crisis was above 40%.
The composition of the problem has changed as well. ESRI finds household indebtedness and credit-cycle indicators well below their pre-crash extremes and describes today's valuation pressure as more consistent with structural housing shortages.
Mortgage rules reinforce that difference. Most owner-occupiers must provide at least a 10% deposit. First-time buyers are normally limited to four times income, repeat buyers to 3.5 times, while buy-to-let purchasers generally need a 30% deposit.
None of this makes Dublin crash-proof. A severe recession could raise unemployment and forced sales. A renewed rate shock could damage affordability. Rapid construction combined with weaker population growth could eventually create much easier supply conditions.
We simply do not see that combination today.
The market looks expensive and stretched, but it does not currently resemble the heavily leveraged, massively overbuilt system that existed before Ireland's previous property collapse.
| Crash factor | Before the financial crisis | Dublin/Ireland today | Risk now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated overvaluation | Above 40% at peak | Around 17% | Elevated |
| Mortgage leverage | Very loose | LTI/LTV limits | Much lower |
| Housing supply | Major construction boom | Persistent shortage | Low oversupply risk |
| Credit growth | Excessive | Growing but regulated | Moderate |
| Forced-sale pressure | Eventually severe | Limited currently | Low |
| Population/housing demand | Strong | Still strong | Supports prices |
Could Dublin's rental shortage keep property prices high?
Yes. Dublin's difficult rental market keeps another layer of pressure under purchase prices because households with enough income and savings have a strong incentive to escape expensive renting.
The RTB-ESRI rent data continues to show high rents across the capital. For many professional households, the monthly cost of renting a two-bedroom property is now large enough that buying becomes attractive once they have a deposit.
That does not mean every renter can become a buyer. The deposit and mortgage limits are precisely what stop high rents from translating automatically into unlimited purchase demand.
There is also movement in the opposite direction. MyHome reported 7,062 notices of termination of rental tenancies nationally in Q1, a 50% annual increase. Some of those landlord-owned properties should eventually reach the sales market and give owner-occupiers more choice.
But when a rental property is sold to an owner-occupier, the city may gain one home for sale while losing one rental home. The housing shortage has simply moved from one tenure to another.
That keeps Dublin's broader housing market tight even when the mix between landlords and homeowners changes.
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What each area costs, how long a place sits before it sells, and what the law will let you charge in rent. Plus the things nobody writes down: the repair levy waiting inside some apartment blocks, and why sale agreed means nothing here.
Which Dublin properties have the best chance of rising further?
Dublin apartments and reasonably priced homes in well-connected areas currently have the clearest path to further price growth because that is where the deepest pool of financeable demand sits.
The 7.0% annual rise in Dublin apartment prices already points in that direction. Houses are gaining 3.9%.
Location still matters enormously, but expensive neighbourhoods do not automatically produce the fastest percentage appreciation. Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown has the city's highest median prices and recently recorded 4.8% house-price growth. Fingal was slower at 3.2%.
For future appreciation, we would focus less on prestige alone and more on how many households can actually bid. Properties near employment centres, rail, Luas or strong bus corridors that remain below the highest Dublin price brackets have a broader buyer base.
A €400,000 apartment can attract households that have been priced out of €600,000 houses. A modest family home in an outer suburb can attract buyers leaving more expensive inner districts.
At today's prices, that affordability funnel is becoming one of the most important forces separating stronger and weaker parts of Dublin.
What could actually make Dublin property prices fall?
Dublin property prices would probably need a meaningful economic or supply shock to fall across the city rather than merely slow down.
The clearest route would be weaker employment. Housing markets can remain expensive while affordability is poor if buyers still have secure jobs and rising wages. Once unemployment rises sharply, demand weakens while some owners become forced sellers.
A second route would come from construction. Dublin already has a very large development pipeline. If that turns into several years of much higher completions while immigration and population growth cool, buyers would finally gain more bargaining power.
Rates could also hurt. Today's average new-mortgage rate around 3.5% is manageable for enough households to keep lending growing. A sharp move higher would immediately reduce how much buyers can afford each month.
And then there is valuation. As pointed out above, ESRI's latest estimate puts Irish prices around 17% above levels implied by current fundamentals. That gap does not force an immediate correction, but it leaves the market more sensitive to bad economic news.
A small disappointment in demand probably produces slower growth. A combination of recession, higher financing costs and much stronger housing delivery could produce falling prices.
Everything a foreign buyer should know before buying in Dublin
The pack also covers the repair levy waiting inside some apartment blocks, and why sale agreed means nothing here.
Are Dublin property prices still likely to be higher in a few years?
Yes. We think Dublin property prices will probably be higher a few years from now, with moderate appreciation much more likely than either another huge boom or a broad collapse.
The strongest reason is still housing scarcity. Dublin is approaching 1.6 million residents, population continues to grow, resale inventory is thin and new construction has yet to reach a consistently high enough level to create a comfortable surplus.
Demand also remains visible in actual transactions. Buyers have recently paid substantial premiums above asking, and mortgage lending for house purchases continues to expand.
There are clear limits to that bullish case. Dublin's median home price is around €500,000. Income-based mortgage caps are increasingly binding. Price growth has already slowed dramatically from 2024. Thousands of apartments are moving through the construction pipeline. And the latest ESRI work says Irish residential values are already around 17% above levels suggested by underlying fundamentals.
Putting those pieces together, our base case is roughly low-to-mid single-digit nominal annual growth rather than another run of high-single-digit gains.
Some years may be almost flat. Apartments and properties within reach of mainstream dual-income households could do better. Very expensive homes have less room because the pool of buyers shrinks quickly as prices rise.
So will property prices rise in Dublin?
Yes. Dublin property prices still have more forces pushing them upward than downward today, so we expect them to rise further overall.
The city's shortage has survived higher mortgage rates, historically expensive property and a substantial increase in construction. Buyers remain competitive, the population is still expanding and the stock available for sale is unusually thin.
But Dublin's next few years should look different from the last surge. The market is already expensive enough for affordability to bite, and new supply is gradually becoming more meaningful. We would therefore expect slower and more uneven appreciation.
Our central expectation is low-to-mid single-digit nominal growth in a normal year, with stronger performance possible in apartments and relatively affordable, well-connected areas.
A serious fall would probably need something Dublin does not currently have: a deep demand shock, a credit squeeze, widespread forced selling or enough completed housing to turn scarcity into surplus.
For now, the shortage still has the upper hand. Buyers just cannot chase prices upward as easily as they could a few years ago.
The areas and new schemes in Dublin that are most overpriced
New apartments are priced against what an institution will pay for a whole block rather than what one buyer should. Where asking prices sit furthest from what places actually earn and resell for.
OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether property prices in Dublin are likely to keep rising by separating the market into the forces that can actually change its direction or speed: price momentum, buyer competition, affordability and credit, population pressure, housing delivery, forward supply, rental pressure and downside risk.
For each part, we prioritized the freshest useful evidence rather than trying to collect the largest possible number of statistics. Official transaction, population, construction and income data from the Central Statistics Office form the core of the analysis, while Central Bank of Ireland data is used for mortgage limits, borrowing costs and credit conditions.
Housing data does not all arrive at the same time, so we did not force every indicator into a single reference month. We used the latest meaningful observation available for each part of the market and distinguished carefully between completed homes, active construction and planning permissions. A permitted home is not treated as if it were already available to a buyer.
The same approach is used for affordability. High prices and ESRI's estimate of residential overvaluation are treated as constraints on future growth rather than automatic predictions of a crash. We separately look at mortgage limits, borrowing costs, leverage and credit growth to judge whether expensive housing is also becoming financially unstable.
Where an explanation depends on interpretation, we look for support from more than one part of the market. Faster apartment-price growth is considered alongside mortgage limits and the price gap between apartments and houses; population growth is compared with housing delivery; and strong bidding is assessed alongside the amount of resale stock available.
We do not use a mechanical score where every positive or negative statistic counts equally. More weight is given to evidence showing actual market outcomes, and closely related indicators are not counted several times simply because they come from different datasets.
Key sources include the CSO Residential Property Price Index for June 2026, the CSO Population and Migration Estimates for April 2026, the CSO New Dwelling Completions Q1 2026, the CSO New Dwelling Completions Q2 2026, and the CSO Planning Permissions Q1 2026.
For the forward supply picture, we use the Department of Housing's 4Dublin Housing Supply Pipeline and its Q1 2026 update. For valuation risk, we rely on ESRI's research on economic vulnerability in the Irish residential property market.
Financing assumptions are grounded in the Central Bank of Ireland's mortgage measures, its retail interest-rate data, and its research on what happened when credit constraints were relaxed. Rental pressure is checked against the RTB/ESRI Rent Index, while MyHome's Q2 2026 Property Report is used for faster-moving market behaviour such as asking-price growth, bidding premiums and resale availability.
The final outlook is therefore a synthesis rather than a single-model forecast. The base case reflects where the strongest current evidence converges, while the downside and upside cases depend mainly on what changes in housing supply, financing conditions and economic demand.
What developers and agents promise that you should never pay for
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