Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Portugal Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Lisbon's property market is included in our pack
Lisbon's property market continues to attract buyers in 2026, with prices still climbing despite affordability concerns in central neighborhoods.
This article covers current housing prices in Lisbon and our forecasts for the short and long term, and we constantly update it with fresh data.
Whether you're looking to buy your first home or invest in rental property, understanding Lisbon's price trends helps you make a smarter decision.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Lisbon.
Insights
- Marvila leads Lisbon's price growth at nearly 32% year-over-year, making it the fastest-appreciating neighborhood in the city as creative industries and riverside development reshape the area.
- The gap between asking prices (around 6,000 euros per square meter) and actual transaction prices (closer to 4,900 euros) in Lisbon means buyers typically close deals 15 to 20% below listed prices.
- Portugal's policy support for young homebuyers, including tax relief and public guarantees, is directly boosting demand for mid-sized apartments in Lisbon's improving neighborhoods.
- Prime central areas like Santo António and Estrela are showing negative or flat price growth, suggesting the luxury segment may have peaked while outer neighborhoods catch up.
- Gross rental yields in Lisbon typically range from 3.2% to 4.3%, meaning investors should expect returns to come mainly from long-term appreciation rather than rental income.
- The ECB's deposit rate at 2.00% has significantly improved mortgage affordability in Lisbon compared to the 2023 peak, supporting continued buyer demand in 2026.
- Lisbon's metro expansion, with new stations at Estrela and Santos, is expected to lift property values in surrounding neighborhoods over the next five years.
- A typical 80-square-meter apartment in Lisbon costs around 400,000 euros in 2026, though prices vary widely depending on the neighborhood and building condition.
What are the current property price trends in Lisbon as of 2026?
What is the average house price in Lisbon as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the average property price in Lisbon stands at approximately 480,000 euros (around 500,000 USD), though the typical purchase price is closer to 400,000 euros since median transactions tend to fall below the mean.
When it comes to price per square meter, properties in Lisbon are trading at about 4,900 euros per square meter for closed deals, which translates to roughly 5,100 USD or 4,900 EUR at current exchange rates.
For most buyers in Lisbon, the realistic price range covering about 80% of purchases falls between 250,000 and 700,000 euros, though this varies significantly by neighborhood, with central parishes commanding premiums of 7,000 euros per square meter or more while outer areas remain closer to 3,500 euros.
How much have property prices increased in Lisbon over the past 12 months?
Property prices in Lisbon have increased by approximately 5% over the past 12 months, based on asking price data from December 2024 to December 2025.
The range of price increases across different property types and areas in Lisbon varies from about 4% in the municipality center to nearly 7% in the broader Lisbon district, where spillover demand from affordability-constrained buyers is pushing prices higher in commuter-friendly zones.
The single most significant factor driving this price movement in Lisbon over the past year has been the persistent supply shortage, as the city's historic building stock and slow construction pipeline continue to limit the number of available homes relative to buyer demand.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Lisbon as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices in Lisbon are Marvila, Parque das Nações, and Benfica, all of which have seen double-digit annual growth.
Marvila leads the pack with approximately 32% annual price growth, followed by Parque das Nações at around 17% and Benfica also at roughly 17%, with nearby Penha de França close behind at 16%.
The main demand driver behind these fast-growing Lisbon neighborhoods is a combination of relative affordability compared to central parishes, good public transport connections, and ongoing urban regeneration projects that are attracting younger buyers and families priced out of premium areas.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Lisbon.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Portugal. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Which property types are increasing faster in value in Lisbon as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the ranking of property types by appreciation rate in Lisbon places mid-sized apartments (one to three bedrooms) at the top, followed by renovated turnkey units, newer condos, and finally detached houses or villas.
The top-performing property type, mid-sized apartments in improving neighborhoods, is appreciating at approximately 8 to 12% annually in the fastest-moving areas of Lisbon.
The main reason apartments are outperforming other property types in Lisbon is that they represent the "sweet spot" for local end-users and benefit directly from government support programs for younger buyers, which concentrate demand in this segment.
Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
- How much do properties cost in Lisbon?
- How much should you pay for an apartment in Lisbon?
- How much should you pay for a studio in Lisbon?
What is driving property prices up or down in Lisbon as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the top three factors driving property prices in Lisbon are chronic housing supply shortages, improved mortgage affordability following ECB rate cuts, and government policy support for younger homebuyers.
The single factor with the strongest upward pressure on Lisbon property prices is the supply constraint, as the city's historic building fabric and slow construction delivery mean there simply are not enough homes available to meet buyer demand.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Lisbon here.
Get fresh and reliable information about the market in Lisbon
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What is the property price forecast for Lisbon in 2026?
How much are property prices expected to increase in Lisbon in 2026?
As of early 2026, property prices in Lisbon are expected to increase by approximately 5 to 6% over the course of the year.
The realistic range of forecasts from different analysts for Lisbon property price growth in 2026 spans from about 4% on the conservative end to 7% in more optimistic scenarios.
The main assumption underlying most price increase forecasts for Lisbon is that housing supply will remain tight while macroeconomic conditions stay stable, meaning steady employment, controlled inflation, and no major interest rate surprises.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Lisbon.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Lisbon in 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth in Lisbon are Marvila, Benfica, Penha de França, Olivais, and Parque das Nações.
These top Lisbon neighborhoods are projected to see price growth ranging from 10 to 20% in 2026, with Marvila potentially continuing its exceptional run if regeneration momentum holds.
The primary catalyst driving expected growth in these Lisbon neighborhoods is a combination of improving connectivity, relative affordability compared to central parishes, and strong demand from families and younger buyers looking for value.
One emerging neighborhood that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth in Lisbon is Alcântara, which stands to benefit significantly from the planned metro expansion adding new stations in the area.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Lisbon.
What property types will appreciate the most in Lisbon in 2026?
As of early 2026, apartments with one to three bedrooms in well-connected improving neighborhoods are expected to appreciate the most in Lisbon.
The projected appreciation for these top-performing mid-sized apartments in Lisbon is approximately 8 to 12% in the strongest neighborhoods, though city-wide averages will be closer to 5 to 7%.
The main demand trend driving appreciation for this property type in Lisbon is government policy support for younger buyers combined with the practical reality that apartments are the most common and liquid housing option in the city.
The property type expected to underperform in Lisbon in 2026 is ultra-premium housing in already expensive central parishes like Santo António and Estrela, where prices are already stretched and year-over-year growth has turned flat or negative.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Portugal versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How will interest rates affect property prices in Lisbon in 2026?
As of early 2026, the current interest rate environment is supportive for Lisbon property prices, as ECB rate cuts have significantly improved mortgage affordability compared to the 2023 peak.
The ECB's deposit rate currently sits at 2.00%, and mortgage rates in Portugal have followed this downward trend, with most analysts expecting rates to remain stable or edge slightly lower through 2026.
A 1% change in interest rates typically affects property affordability in Lisbon by shifting monthly mortgage payments by roughly 10 to 12%, which in turn influences how much buyers can bid, so rate stability is generally positive for price support while rate increases would push demand toward cheaper outer areas first.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Portugal.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Lisbon in 2026?
As of early 2026, the three biggest risks for property prices in Lisbon are an affordability shock if borrowing costs or taxes rise unexpectedly, regulatory changes that could reduce investor demand or restrict rental models, and a broader economic downturn that would hurt employment and incomes.
The risk with the highest probability of materializing in Lisbon is affordability pressure, as prices in many central neighborhoods have already reached levels where further gains depend on everything going right, meaning stable rates, growing incomes, and continued demand.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Lisbon.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Lisbon in 2026?
As of early 2026, buying a rental property in Lisbon can make sense, but investors should expect returns to come primarily from long-term price appreciation rather than high rental yields, which typically range from 3.2% to 4.3% gross.
The strongest argument in favor of buying a rental property in Lisbon now is that supply remains tight, demand continues to outpace available housing, and improved financing conditions make mortgages more manageable than they were in 2023.
The strongest argument for waiting before buying a rental property in Lisbon is that prices in many central areas are already stretched, meaning if affordability pressure mounts or regulations tighten further, investors buying at peak prices could see flat returns for several years.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Lisbon.
You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Lisbon.
Buying real estate in Lisbon can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Where will property prices be in 5 years in Lisbon?
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Lisbon as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Lisbon over the next five years is expected to reach approximately 20 to 30% in the base case scenario.
The range of 5-year forecasts for Lisbon spans from about 0 to 10% in a conservative or downside scenario (if affordability bites hard or a recession hits) to 35 to 45% in an optimistic scenario where rates stay low and supply remains constrained.
This translates to a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 3.7% to 5.4% per year over the next five years in Lisbon, depending on which scenario plays out.
The key assumption most forecasters rely on for their 5-year Lisbon property predictions is that housing supply will continue to grow slowly relative to demand, meaning structural scarcity persists as the main price support.
Which areas in Lisbon will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The top three areas in Lisbon expected to have the best price growth over the next five years are Marvila (and the adjacent Beato zone), Benfica and Olivais, and neighborhoods along the Alcântara-Santos corridor that will benefit from metro expansion.
These top-performing Lisbon areas are projected to see 5-year cumulative price growth of approximately 35 to 50%, outpacing the city average as they continue catching up to more established neighborhoods.
This longer forecast differs from the short-term view mainly in that it gives more weight to infrastructure improvements, as projects like the metro expansion will have had time to complete and influence commuting patterns, whereas the 2026 forecast focuses more on current momentum.
The currently undervalued area in Lisbon with the best potential for outperformance over five years is the eastern corridor around Beato and parts of Olivais, where prices remain well below city averages but connectivity and regeneration are steadily improving.
What property type will give the best return in Lisbon over 5 years as of 2026?
As of early 2026, one to two bedroom apartments in improving but well-connected Lisbon neighborhoods are expected to give the best total return over the next five years, balancing appreciation potential with strong rental demand and liquidity.
The projected 5-year total return for these top-performing apartments, combining price appreciation and rental income, is approximately 35 to 50% cumulative, though this assumes buying at fair market value in the right micro-location.
The main structural trend favoring this property type over the next five years in Lisbon is the combination of continued government support for first-time buyers, limited new supply in the mid-market segment, and strong rental demand from a growing population of young professionals.
For buyers seeking a balance of return and lower risk over five years in Lisbon, renovated apartments in established neighborhoods like Benfica or Olivais offer good liquidity and stable tenant demand without the execution risk of renovation projects or the premium pricing of ultra-central locations.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Lisbon over 5 years?
The top three major infrastructure projects expected to impact Lisbon property prices over the next five years are the metro circular line expansion (including new stations at Estrela and Santos), improvements to suburban rail connections, and ongoing waterfront regeneration along the eastern riverfront.
Properties near completed infrastructure projects in Lisbon typically see a price premium of approximately 10 to 20% compared to similar properties further from transit, though this effect builds gradually as projects near completion.
The neighborhoods that will benefit most from these infrastructure developments in Lisbon are Alcântara, Santos, Estrela, and parts of Marvila, all of which will gain improved metro access and shorter commute times to central employment areas.
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Lisbon in 5 years?
Lisbon's projected population growth, driven mainly by migration rather than natural increase, is expected to add continued pressure on housing demand over the next five years, supporting property values even as affordability concerns persist.
The demographic shift with the strongest influence on Lisbon property demand is the growth of smaller households, as more young professionals and couples seek centrally located apartments, pushing up demand for one to two bedroom units in well-connected neighborhoods.
Migration patterns, including both international arrivals and domestic moves from other parts of Portugal, are expected to maintain strong demand for Lisbon housing, as the city remains the country's primary economic and employment hub.
The property types and areas that will benefit most from these demographic trends in Lisbon are mid-sized apartments in improving neighborhoods with good transit access, as these match the needs of the growing population of working-age residents and smaller households.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Portugal compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Lisbon?
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Lisbon as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Lisbon over the next 10 years is expected to reach approximately 45 to 70% in the base case scenario.
The range of 10-year forecasts for Lisbon spans from roughly 20 to 30% in a conservative scenario (accounting for potential recessions or affordability corrections) to over 100% in an optimistic scenario where structural supply constraints persist and interest rates remain favorable.
This translates to a projected average annual appreciation rate of approximately 3.8% to 5.5% per year over the next decade in Lisbon, though real (inflation-adjusted) returns will be lower.
The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year property price predictions for Lisbon is the trajectory of interest rates and credit conditions, since a sustained shift to higher borrowing costs could significantly dampen both demand and price growth potential.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Lisbon?
The top three long-term economic factors that will shape property prices in Lisbon over the next decade are the interest rate regime (whether money stays cheap or returns to higher historical norms), Portugal's productivity and income growth trajectory, and the pace of new housing supply delivery.
The single long-term economic factor with the most positive potential impact on Lisbon property values is sustained income growth, as rising household earnings would allow buyers to absorb higher prices without hitting affordability ceilings.
The single long-term economic factor that poses the greatest structural risk to Lisbon property values is a scenario where prices continue rising faster than incomes, eventually triggering a correction as buyers simply cannot afford current price levels.
You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Lisbon.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Lisbon, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why it's authoritative | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| Statistics Portugal (INE) - House Price Statistics | Portugal's official national statistics office for transaction-based housing data. | We used it to anchor transaction prices for Lisbon municipality in euros per square meter. We also aligned neighborhood patterns with this baseline. |
| INE Housing Theme Page | Official hub for Portugal's core housing indicators and release calendar. | We used it to cross-check national momentum on house prices and supply indicators. We treat it as the macro reality check behind Lisbon forecasts. |
| Eurostat House Price Index | EU's official statistical office providing standardized housing metrics. | We used it to benchmark Portugal and Lisbon against the wider euro area trend. We also use it for scenario stress tests. |
| European Central Bank (ECB) | Sets policy rates that directly feed into Portuguese mortgage pricing. | We used it to anchor the interest rate regime entering 2026. We translate rate levels into affordability pressure and price growth ceilings. |
| Banco de Portugal Financial Stability Report | Central bank's formal assessment of systemic risks including housing. | We used it to frame risks around credit growth and borrower vulnerability. We use it to inform our downside scenarios. |
| European Commission Economic Forecast | Provides widely used policy-grade macro forecasts for member states. | We used it for 2026 to 2027 assumptions on inflation, demand, and labor market. We map these macro assumptions to Lisbon price scenarios. |
| IMF World Economic Outlook | Top-tier global macro forecaster and stress-test reference. | We used it to triangulate the global and euro backdrop for our outlook. We mainly use it to bound risk scenarios. |
| Idealista Lisbon Municipality Report | Biggest housing portal in Iberia with consistent public methodology. | We used it for granular neighborhood price levels and year-over-year changes. We treat it as asking prices and reconcile with INE transaction data. |
| Idealista Lisbon District Report | Same authoritative portal covering the broader Lisbon metro area. | We used it to compare Lisbon municipality versus wider district dynamics. We use this to explain commuter area spillover trends. |
| Confidencial Imobiliário Price Index | Long-running Portuguese housing data provider used by institutions. | We used it as a second private-sector cross-check on price direction. We use it qualitatively to validate turning points. |
| OECD Affordable Housing Database | Trusted international organization with standard affordability definitions. | We used it to define "overpriced" in an evidence-based way using price-to-income logic. We apply that framework to Lisbon's premium areas. |
| FRED/BIS Real Property Prices | Standard long-run cross-country housing series from the BIS. | We used it to frame the long cycle in real prices over decades. We use it as our "zoom out" historical check. |
| CBRE Portugal Residential Figures | Major global real estate consultancy with transparent market reporting. | We used it to cross-check market narratives on pricing and construction trends. We find it helpful for institutional perspective on drivers. |
| Global Property Guide Rental Yields | Widely used housing research publisher with published yield methodology. | We used it to provide concrete gross yield ranges for Lisbon by unit type. We treat it as indicative and sanity-check against local rent levels. |
| Metropolitano de Lisboa Expansion Plan | Official metro operator publishing network expansion details. | We used it to ground infrastructure uplift in real projects with confirmed timelines. We connect station locations to nearby neighborhoods. |
| Reuters - Portugal Housing Measures | Top-tier wire service with rigorous sourcing and fact checking. | We used it to document demand-side policy tailwinds for 2026. We treat it as policy context that affects buyer demand. |
| Reuters - Portugal 2026 Budget | Reliable source for policy and macro developments affecting housing. | We used it to triangulate the 2026 macro setting and tax measures. We use this to bound our forecast assumptions. |
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If you want to go deeper, you can read the following: