SUMMARY
Dublin property prices are not actually falling now. The market has cooled noticeably, especially for houses, but completed prices, asking prices and buyer activity still point to growth rather than a broad decline.
The important shift is in momentum. Dublin residential prices are still 4.6% higher than a year earlier, but annual growth has fallen from roughly 6.1% near the start of the year, while house-price growth has slowed further to 3.9%.
Apartments are doing much better than houses. Dublin apartment prices are still up 7.0% annually, versus 3.9% for houses, suggesting affordability is pushing some demand toward the cheaper part of the ownership market rather than removing buyers altogether.
Dublin also looks weak mainly in relative terms. Prices outside Dublin are rising 6.4% annually, so the capital is underperforming the rest of Ireland even though its own prices are still increasing.
The early-year slowdown briefly looked more threatening than it does today. Dublin asking-price growth fell to 2.9% in Q1, but rebounded to 4.5% in Q2, with asking prices rising 3.8% in the quarter alone.
Buyer behaviour still does not resemble a typical falling market. Homes have continued to sell above their original asking prices, and Dublin bidding premiums have remained substantial despite weaker affordability.
The expensive end is probably where the first real cracks would show. Higher-priced family homes face a smaller buyer pool and more negotiation, but even Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown house prices remain higher than a year ago.
Mortgage rates have made buying dramatically more expensive, yet mortgage demand remains surprisingly strong. July produced 6,253 approvals nationally, the highest monthly figure in BPFI's series, with first-time buyers accounting for more than half.
Supply is loosening, but not enough to create obvious oversupply. Homes listed for sale nationally have increased from an extremely low base, while Dublin's latest quarterly new-home completions actually fell 16.4% year on year.
The clearest bearish scenario is therefore stagnation before a crash. If house-price growth approaches zero, listings keep rising, bidding premiums disappear and mortgage approvals weaken at the same time, Dublin could move into genuine price declines quite quickly.
For the moment, the data support a cooler and much more uneven Dublin market rather than a falling one. Buyers have more negotiating room in some pockets, particularly at higher prices, but someone waiting for evidence of a broad Dublin property-price decline is still waiting.
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Are Dublin property prices actually falling now?
Dublin property prices are still rising today, although houses have cooled enough that some buyers are understandably starting to wonder whether a fall has begun.
The latest CSO Residential Property Price Index remains the best place to start because it is based on completed transactions rather than asking prices. The latest available reading shows Dublin residential prices 4.6% higher than a year earlier. Dublin houses were up 3.9%, while apartments were up 7.0%.
Those numbers are much weaker than the double-digit increases Dublin has experienced at other points in the cycle, but 4.6% annual growth is still comfortably positive. The more interesting change is how quickly that growth rate has faded. Dublin annual inflation was around 6.1% near the start of the year and had dropped to 4.6% by the latest CSO reading.
So there really has been a turn in Dublin. Prices are still going up, just much more slowly.
| Dublin measure | Latest change | What it tells us | Current read |
|---|---|---|---|
| All residential property | +4.6% YoY | Broad Dublin market | Still rising |
| Houses | +3.9% YoY | Softer part of market | Cooling |
| Apartments | +7.0% YoY | Stronger segment | Still rising fast |
| Outside Dublin | +6.4% YoY | National comparison | Dublin is underperforming |
Why does Dublin property suddenly feel weaker?
Dublin property feels weaker now because price growth has slowed sharply, particularly for houses, and buyers are seeing more uneven bidding than they did during the hottest part of the market.
The slowdown is real. CSO annual Dublin price growth fell from about 6.1% near the beginning of the year to 5.0% in May and then 4.6% in the latest reading. House-price growth has dropped even further, to 3.9%.
There was an especially soft start to the year. MyHome calculated from the CSO series that Irish transaction prices increased by just 0.2% between the end of last year and April, the weakest opening four months since 2020. Dublin asking-price inflation also dropped to 2.9% in Q1, its lowest rate in almost three years.
That combination made the idea of falling prices quite believable. Then the market strengthened again. MyHome's Q2 report recorded Dublin asking-price growth of 4.5% year on year and 3.8% in a single quarter.
The story today is messier than a simple downturn. Early weakness was genuine, but it has not developed into a broad decline.
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Are Dublin house prices actually starting to fall?
Dublin house prices are the closest part of the market to genuine stagnation, but the official data still show a 3.9% annual increase.
That 3.9% figure deserves more attention than the headline Dublin number because houses have been losing momentum faster than apartments. Near the beginning of the year, Dublin houses were still up around 5.6% annually. The rate later slipped below 5% and has now fallen below 4%.
The geographic picture is also softening without turning negative. Fingal recorded the weakest Dublin house-price growth in the latest CSO release at 3.2%. Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown was stronger at 4.8%.
For buyers following houses every week, especially expensive family homes, the market can therefore feel much flatter than a 4.6% Dublin-wide headline suggests. We would take that feeling seriously. We just would not call it an actual price decline yet.
| Dublin house market | Annual price change |
|---|---|
| Fingal | +3.2% |
| Dublin houses overall | +3.9% |
| Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown | +4.8% |
| Dublin apartments | +7.0% |
Why are Dublin apartments still rising much faster than houses?
Dublin apartments are currently resisting the slowdown far better than houses, with prices still up 7.0% year on year.
The gap has been persistent rather than a one-month quirk. Earlier in the year, Dublin houses were rising about 5.6% while apartments were up 7.8%. The latest figures put them at 3.9% and 7.0%. That means the difference between the two growth rates has widened from roughly 2.2 to 3.1 percentage points.
Affordability probably explains part of that divergence. The CSO puts Dublin's overall median purchase price at €500,000 over the latest 12-month period, while Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown reaches €682,334 and Blackrock's A94 Eircode €851,750. Many buyers simply cannot stretch to the family houses they would have targeted a few years ago.
Apartments give those buyers a lower entry price while Dublin's rental shortage continues to support demand for well-located units. We should still expect large differences between buildings because service charges, sinking funds, fire-safety issues and management quality can completely change the value of an individual apartment.
Across Dublin as a whole, apartments are one of the clearest reasons the overall index remains positive.
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Are Dublin asking prices falling yet?
Dublin asking prices are rising again, which makes an immediate citywide price fall harder to argue.
MyHome recorded annual Dublin asking-price inflation of 4.5% in Q2, up from 2.9% in Q1. Asking prices also increased 3.8% quarter on quarter. The median asking price of newly listed Dublin homes reached €495,000.
We should not read too much into the raw median because the type of homes listed changes from one quarter to another. MyHome itself uses an adjusted index for that reason.
The useful observation is the reversal in momentum. Dublin asking-price inflation had fallen for several quarters and then accelerated again. Sellers and estate agents were apparently confident enough to push asking prices higher despite stretched affordability.
That does not guarantee they will achieve those prices, so we need to look at completed bidding as well.
Are Dublin buyers still paying above asking price?
Yes. Dublin buyers are still paying enough above asking price that the market does not currently look buyer-dominated.
MyHome found that homes were selling roughly 7% to 8% above their original asking prices nationally in May and June, with Dublin premiums around 9% to 10% in its market analysis.
A 10% premium is substantial. A property deliberately listed at €500,000 could finish near €550,000. We should not interpret that as 10% price inflation because agents often price homes below their expected sale value to generate competition. But persistent over-asking sales tell us something useful about bargaining power.
In a genuine broad downturn, we would expect the opposite pattern to become increasingly common: listings sitting longer, reductions spreading and final prices regularly landing below initial expectations.
Individual Dublin homes already behave that way, especially when they are badly priced or have obvious drawbacks. The aggregate bidding data still show considerably more competition than distress.
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Is Dublin's expensive property market finally cracking?
The expensive end of Dublin is becoming more negotiable, but current evidence does not show a broad collapse in prime prices.
MyHome has specifically pointed to softer conditions at higher price points. That is plausible because the buyer pool shrinks quickly once prices move far above normal mortgage affordability.
Yet the official figures remain surprisingly firm in expensive areas. Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown recorded 4.8% annual house-price growth in the latest CSO release, stronger than Dublin houses overall. Its median transaction price over the previous 12 months was €682,334. Blackrock's A94 Eircode was higher again at €851,750.
The useful distinction for buyers is between price sensitivity and falling prices. A €1.3 million house can require more realistic pricing and more patience without the entire neighbourhood being worth less than it was last year.
We would expect this expensive segment to be one of the first places where a deeper Dublin downturn becomes visible if affordability worsens again.
Is Dublin weaker than the rest of Ireland right now?
Yes. Dublin property is currently underperforming the rest of Ireland by a fairly clear margin.
The latest CSO data show Dublin residential prices up 4.6% annually versus 6.4% outside the capital. Houses show an even wider gap: 3.9% growth in Dublin against 6.0% elsewhere. Apartments rose 7.0% in Dublin compared with 10.2% outside Dublin.
That is an important change in relative performance. Dublin remains by far the country's most expensive major housing market, so affordability constraints bite earlier there. Buyers can also get substantially more space for the same money in surrounding counties and many regional cities.
For someone who remembers Dublin leading Irish property inflation, today's market can therefore look weak. Relative to the rest of Ireland, it genuinely is.
| Property type | Dublin | Outside Dublin | Dublin gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| All residential property | +4.6% | +6.4% | -1.8 pp |
| Houses | +3.9% | +6.0% | -2.1 pp |
| Apartments | +7.0% | +10.2% | -3.2 pp |
| Overall median purchase price | €500,000 | Below Dublin | Dublin remains much more expensive |
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Have higher mortgage rates finally killed Dublin demand?
No. Mortgage costs have hurt affordability badly, but the newest lending numbers show plenty of buyers are still trying to purchase homes.
The Central Bank's latest available figures put the average rate on new Irish mortgage agreements at 3.49%. Fixed mortgages, which represented 93% of new agreements, averaged 3.46%. New variable mortgages averaged 3.96%.
Those rates are painful compared with the ultra-cheap mortgage period. A €400,000 loan over 30 years costs roughly €1,795 a month at 3.5%, compared with around €1,260 at 0.85%. That is more than €500 extra every month.
Yet demand has not disappeared. BPFI's newest mortgage-approval figures are unusually strong: 6,253 mortgages were approved in July, up 14.4% year on year and the highest monthly total since its series began in 2011. First-time buyers alone accounted for 3,575 approvals, or 57.2% of the total.
Approvals can later expire or fail to become purchases, and these are Irish rather than Dublin-only numbers. Still, a housing crash driven by disappearing credit demand is difficult to reconcile with record approval volumes.
| Latest mortgage measure | Result | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| New mortgage rate | 3.49% | 11 bps lower YoY |
| July mortgage approvals | 6,253 | +14.4% YoY |
| First-time-buyer approvals | 3,575 | 57.2% of total |
| Approval value | €2.04bn | +15.0% YoY |
| H1 mortgage drawdowns | 21,232 | €6.8bn total value |
Are first-time buyers still propping up Dublin property prices?
First-time buyers remain a major source of housing demand, and the latest numbers suggest their buying power has strengthened rather than disappeared.
BPFI reported 3,575 first-time-buyer mortgage approvals nationally in July, the highest monthly figure in its series. Their approved loans were worth €1.18 billion.
Actual purchases tell a similar story. According to the latest CSO transaction data, 1,705 first-time-buyer purchases were filed with Revenue in June, 11.4% more than a year earlier. Of those, 699 involved new homes and 1,006 involved existing homes.
Over the 12 months to June, first-time buyers accounted for 20,716 household property purchases nationally, or 40.4% of the market.
Government supports, mortgage lending rules and the shortage of housing all interact here, so first-time-buyer demand is hardly unlimited. But there is little evidence today that this group has collectively stepped away from the market.
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Is Dublin finally getting enough new homes to push prices down?
No. Dublin's newest completion figures actually weakened, removing one of the easiest routes to a near-term oversupply correction.
The CSO counted 3,180 new homes completed across Dublin in Q2, down 16.4% from the same quarter a year earlier. Dublin was one of only two Irish regions where completions fell.
Apartments dominated construction. Dublin delivered 2,006 apartments during the quarter, representing 75.5% of every apartment completed in Ireland. Dublin City alone completed 1,170 apartments, alongside just 91 scheme houses and 19 single dwellings.
Fingal looked quite different, with 551 scheme houses and 454 apartments among its 1,020 completions. South Dublin delivered 573 homes, while Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown managed only 307.
One weak quarter does not tell us how much housing Dublin will build over the next several years. It does tell us that the city has not just been hit by a sudden flood of completed properties.
| Dublin area | Q2 completions | Main type |
|---|---|---|
| Dublin City | 1,280 | Apartments |
| Fingal | 1,020 | Scheme homes / apartments |
| South Dublin | 573 | Scheme homes |
| Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown | 307 | Apartments |
| Dublin total | 3,180 | Down 16.4% YoY |
Is the number of homes for sale in Dublin finally becoming a problem?
Housing inventory is starting to loosen, but available supply remains too tight for us to call it a serious oversupply problem.
MyHome counted about 14,200 homes for sale nationally in June, up from 12,600 a year earlier. That is roughly a 13% increase, so buyers genuinely have more choice than they did.
The starting point was extremely low, though. MyHome estimates that turnover in Ireland's existing housing stock is running at only about 2% of the roughly 2.2 million homes, the weakest liquidity rate since 2014. Put differently, the average existing home would change hands only once every 50 years at that pace.
There is also an interesting source of future stock: notices of termination in the rental market rose 50% in Q1 to 7,062. If more landlords sell those properties, second-hand supply could continue to improve.
This is one of the indicators we would watch most closely from here. A sustained increase in listings combined with slower bidding would materially strengthen the case for falling prices. So far, the rise mainly looks like a partial recovery from an unusually starved market.
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Are Dublin property transactions starting to collapse?
No. Current transaction volumes look fairly stable, while the money being spent on residential property is still increasing.
The latest CSO release recorded 4,058 household dwelling purchases nationally in June, up 0.7% from the same month a year earlier and 5.1% from May. The combined value of those purchases reached €1.82 billion, up 6.8% year on year.
Existing homes accounted for 2,973 transactions, down 3.8% from a year earlier. New-home purchases reached 1,085, up 15.8%.
That mix is worth watching. Second-hand transaction volumes are weaker, while new-home transactions have grown enough to keep the overall market positive.
Together with the record mortgage-approval numbers discussed above, transaction activity gives us little reason to think buyers have suddenly vanished. The market is expensive and slower, but it is still functioning at substantial volume.
Could Dublin prices start falling later this year?
Yes. Dublin is much closer to a possible flat or falling market than it was when annual inflation was running much faster, particularly for houses.
The obvious pressure is affordability. A median Dublin property costs around €500,000, the average new mortgage rate remains near 3.5%, and family houses in many established areas cost far more than the median. House-price inflation has already slowed to 3.9%.
Inventory is also moving in the buyer's favour from a very low base. If listings keep increasing while bidding premiums shrink, sellers may eventually have to reset their expectations.
But the forces pushing the other way remain powerful: apartments are still rising quickly, mortgage approvals are strong, first-time buyers remain active, Dublin completions fell in the latest quarter and asking prices recently reaccelerated.
We therefore think an eventual period of flat prices is much easier to imagine today than a year or two ago. A meaningful Dublin-wide decline still needs evidence that has not appeared yet.
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What would convince us that Dublin property prices are really falling?
We would call Dublin a falling property market once weakness shows up repeatedly in completed prices, bidding and supply at the same time.
A few monthly declines in the CSO index would get our attention, especially if annual Dublin growth then approached zero. House prices would probably turn first, but a convincing citywide downturn would eventually need to pull apartments away from their current 7% annual growth as well.
We would also look for asking-price cuts to become normal rather than anecdotal. MyHome's over-asking premium should shrink sharply or turn into a discount. Inventory would need to keep building, ideally alongside weaker mortgage approvals or fewer completed purchases.
Several of those ingredients are moving slightly in that direction. None has gone far enough yet.
| What we would watch | Current situation | What would look bearish |
|---|---|---|
| Dublin CSO prices | +4.6% YoY | Sustained declines |
| Dublin houses | +3.9% YoY | Around 0% or negative |
| Apartments | +7.0% YoY | Clear slowdown into negative territory |
| Asking prices | Recently +4.5% YoY | Repeated cuts |
| Sale versus asking | Buyers still paying premiums | Discounts become widespread |
| Inventory | Recovering from very low levels | Persistent large build-up |
| Mortgage demand | Very strong approvals | Broad contraction |
So, are Dublin property prices actually falling now?
No. Dublin property prices are cooling quite clearly, but the latest evidence still shows a market going up rather than one that has begun a broad decline.
The slowdown is meaningful. Dublin annual price inflation has dropped to 4.6%, houses are down to 3.9%, Fingal houses are growing only 3.2%, and the capital is now underperforming the rest of Ireland.
But the bearish argument runs into several fresh pieces of evidence. Apartments remain 7.0% more expensive than a year ago. Dublin asking prices reaccelerated in the latest MyHome report. Buyers have continued to pay above asking. July produced the highest number of mortgage approvals in BPFI's series, with first-time buyers particularly strong. Meanwhile, Dublin completed 16.4% fewer homes year on year in the latest quarter.
We are therefore comfortable being quite firm here: calling Dublin a falling property market today goes beyond what the data show.
The better warning for buyers is that Dublin has entered a much less forgiving phase. Prices can stagnate in some pockets, expensive homes can require negotiation, and houses are clearly losing momentum. If inventory keeps rising and bidding cools, the answer could change fairly quickly.
For now, though, someone waiting for evidence of a broad Dublin property-price fall is still waiting.
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OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Dublin property prices are actually falling by looking beyond market sentiment and individual listings. We compare completed sale prices with asking-price behaviour, bidding, mortgage demand, transactions and housing supply to see whether the main parts of the market are deteriorating together.
We give the greatest weight to the CSO Residential Property Price Index because it is based on completed transactions rather than advertised prices. We also separate Dublin houses from apartments and Dublin from the rest of Ireland where the headline figure hides meaningfully different trends.
Asking prices and sale-versus-asking premiums are treated as separate indicators of seller expectations and buyer competition. They help us judge momentum and bargaining power, but they do not replace completed transaction prices.
Demand is assessed through mortgage approvals and drawdowns, first-time-buyer activity and completed purchases. This helps distinguish a market in which buyers are genuinely disappearing from one where affordability has worsened but demand remains active.
For supply, we combine new-home completions with available listings and interpret both relative to their starting point. An increase in inventory after an exceptionally tight period is not automatically evidence of oversupply.
We also give more weight to persistent moves than to isolated monthly or quarterly changes. A convincing Dublin downturn would need weakness to appear repeatedly across realised prices, bidding, credit, transactions and supply rather than in one dataset alone.
Key sources used for this analysis include the CSO Residential Property Price Index for June 2026, the underlying CSO RPPI data tables, the CSO's Residential Property Price Index methodology, the MyHome and Bank of Ireland Q2 2026 Property Report, the MyHome and Bank of Ireland Q1 2026 Property Report, and the Central Bank of Ireland's retail interest-rate data.
Mortgage-demand figures come from BPFI's July 2026 Mortgage Approvals report and BPFI's Q2 2026 Mortgage Drawdowns report. Housing-supply figures come from the CSO's Q2 2026 New Dwelling Completions release, while landlord exit pressure is checked against the Residential Tenancies Board's Q1 2026 notices-of-termination update.
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